my country's refined oil prices are adjusted every ten working days, and the new round of oil price adjustment window opens at 24:00 on November 7, 2022. At that time, the 21st round of oil price adjustment will usher in the 21st round of oil price adjustment since the beginning of this year, and gasoline and diesel prices across the country will show new changes. In addition, since the rise and fall of oil prices are closely related to everyone's cost of living, as each round of refined oil prices is about to usher in adjustment, countless people are paying attention to and discussing the changes in gasoline and diesel prices. I believe that the new round of price adjustment is no exception.
Of course, according to the latest oil price news, the reference crude oil change rate on the fourth working day of this round of pricing cycle has been announced, with the specific data being 1.58%, which means that the domestic oil price forecast for the increase of exceeds the price adjustment red line, and the initial estimate of the increase is around 100 yuan/ton, which is significantly larger than the second and third working days in this round of pricing statistical cycle. Oil prices are in an upward state and fully meet the standards of increase, which may lay the foundation for the new round of price adjustment. However, since the opening period of the price adjustment window is long at present, fluctuations and changes during the period are normal, so it is not advisable to draw conclusions too early.
In addition, it is converted into a liter price, and the predicted increase in oil price is about 0.07 yuan/liter - 0.09 yuan/liter. According to previous practice, if estimated based on the national average price, it is expected that the price of No. 92 gasoline will be increased by 0.08 yuan/liter, the price of No. 95 gasoline will be increased by 0.09 yuan/liter, and the price of No. 0 diesel will also rise by 0.09 yuan/liter. Obviously, it is currently predicted that the price of gasoline and diesel is slightly higher. Therefore, there is a possibility that gasoline and diesel prices will continue to rise in the country. For ordinary private cars, adding a box of 50 liters of gasoline will cost about 4 yuan to 5 yuan more. Although the overall increase is not large, when the price adjustment of refined oil has increased by 185 yuan/ton and 175 yuan/ton in the last round of refined oil prices, oil prices are still continuing to rise. Its significance and nature are different from the past. Therefore, many people are anxious about the expected increase in oil prices exceeding 100 yuan/ton.
Secondly, as the domestic oil price forecast exceeds the price adjustment red line, it is expected that the No. 92 gasoline will be raised by 0.08 yuan/liter, which shows that the 21st round of refined oil price adjustment this year may usher in the "13th increase". The cost of car owners and friends filling a box of gasoline may increase again. In the context of the current high-level gasoline prices, the continued rise in oil prices will undoubtedly increase consumers' living burden, especially when the economic downward pressure is high and many industries are not in good health.
Furthermore, in terms of international oil prices, as the U.S. GDP data boosted the prospect of oil demand in the third quarter, international oil prices showed a slight increase on the 27th, continuing to rise from the previous trading day. The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures continued to rise. In other words, good news in the market has driven the rebound of international crude oil futures prices, WTI crude oil approaches US$90, and Brent crude oil futures also rose significantly.
As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures delivered on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $1.17 to close at $89.08 per barrel, an increase of 1.33%. London Brent crude oil futures for December delivery rose $1.27 to close at $96.96 a barrel, an increase of 1.33%.
To sum up, due to the overall improvement of risk preference in the market recently, the international crude oil gasoline price has started a rebound mode. Affected by this, the domestic oil price forecast increase exceeded the price adjustment red line, especially the crude oil change rate on the fourth working day 1.58%, which significantly expanded compared with the previous working day. The cumulative increase of oil price forecast exceeded 100 yuan/ton, which is converted into a price increase. It is expected that the No. 92 gasoline will be raised by 0.08 yuan/liter, which indicates that the next round of oil price adjustment is expected to rise.
