First review the external market trend during the National Day holiday, as well as domestic related news:
- external market set off a huge wave, followed by a storm. Hong Kong stocks and US stocks both showed a wave of rising first and then falling. The non-farm data released by the United States in September did not meet expectations, US stocks plummeted, and the chip sector almost collapsed.
- RMB exchange rate volatility increased, touching the highest level of 7.01; on the last trading day of last week, the RMB weakened and closed at 7.13. Whether it will continue to weaken in the next week has become the focus of market attention.
In the context of the turmoil in the peripheral market and the increase in exchange rate volatility, facing the sensitive node of 3000 points, I used technical means to analyze the market , and the technical conditions match the fundamentals, and made scientific predictions on the index. First, look at the 60 daily moving average on on Shanghai Composite Index :
Shanghai Composite Index 60 minutes, 60-day moving average
1, In the above figure, the 60-day moving average deviation value on 60 minutes increases to the limit before the festival. In 60 minutes, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced three rounds of "nine-level" adjustments, from September 14 to 16, September 21 to 26, and September 28 to 30. From the technical perspective, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is brewing a rebound trend consistent with Hong Kong and US stocks.
2. As of the close of September 30, the Shanghai Stock Exchange closed in the past five months, and the energy indicator fell to the level before the rebound on April 26 (see the figure below) . From a technical perspective, when the energy shrinks to its limit, it also indicates a big rebound.
3. When I converted -day K-line to the average K-line, I was shocked. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at a negative line in the past 14 trading days (see the figure below), refreshing the history of the Shanghai Composite Index for seven years. The last time it occurred in the stock market crash in June 2015. This indicates that the rebound is about to break out. If combined with effective volume, the rebound will last for a long time. It must be noted that this is just a rebound.
During the National Day holiday, I collected the analysis and comments of stock friends, friends and big names. I estimated that about 90% of the predictions were that the index would fall below 3,000 points, or even break through 2,836.
Historical experience shows that any market rebound or reversal trend will happen to almost everyone’s unfavorable situations. The market’s pessimism reaches a freezing point, and at this time things often turn around.
I will continue to collect and organize relevant analysis reports; please continue to pay attention. This study is the result of individuals using models for long-term dynamic and static analysis, and is not used as an investment basis.
