In the past two days, the cryptocurrency market fluctuations have decreased significantly. The 24-hour price of Bitcoin fluctuates between US$19215 and US$19544, with an oscillation of only US$330, while Ethereum fluctuates in the range of US$1303-1330, with an oscillation of as low as US$27.
Affected by this, Bitcoin's trading volume also dropped significantly. Glassnode data shows that the average trading volume of BTC reached a 15-month low, with a seven-day average of 7.275 BTC.
The relatively stable price has greatly reduced the contract market losses. According to data, the total 24-hour liquidation of the entire network was only US$35.08 million, of which Bitcoin was US$5.84 million and Ethereum was US$11.97 million.
The market sentiment index is 22, and the status is panic.
Judging from the market performance, the cryptocurrency market remains stable, but the market information feedback is not the case.
Comprehensive market information, the cryptocurrency market currently shows two major characteristics:
1. The behavior of increasing holdings has increased significantly, and users' interest in cryptocurrencies seems to be recovering.
Since mid-September, anonymous Bitcoin addresses have increased their holdings of 5,000 Bitcoins.
According to data disclosed by Bitcoin on-chain analyst @Capital15C, an anonymous Bitcoin address has been actively increasing its holdings of Bitcoin since September 17, 2022, and its single purchase transaction scale is basically between 100 and 200; as of October 7, the Bitcoin balance of this address has increased from 21,799 BTC to 26,280 BTC. According to the current BTC US dollar price, the balance scale of this wallet has exceeded US$500 million.
" Rich Dad Poor Dad " author Robert Kiyosaki (Robert Kiyosaki) recently posted a tweet to explain why he bought Bitcoin: With inflation , pension funds are buying cryptocurrency . Robert cited a Forbes survey report that 94% of state and local government pensions in the United States are investing in cryptocurrencies. "Why do I buy Bitcoin? Pension funds are the largest investment business in the world."
2. Bitcoin is bearish and may face selling pressure.
cryptocurrency analyst Nicholas Merten said Feder maintains a hawkish attitude and the price of Bitcoin (BTC) may fall. Merten believes that Bitcoin may face greater selling pressure before the Fed achieves its target of controlling inflation.
Merten said the Fed's route is correct. It needs to dominate in cooling inflation. Because these principles work here, namely, raising interest rates and quantitative tightening by cutting balance sheets, that's why Bitcoin fell. They won't start turning until the target of keeping inflation at 2% is reached.
MarsBit message, encryption analysis platform Santiment said that many people bearish Solana (SOL), Tron (TRX) and Binance Coin (BNB), This may indicate the coming of the bottom .
However, according to Santiment, the serious bearish sentiment of is sometimes a signal that the price is about to rise . "We are in a situation where optimism in several cryptocurrencies is rising, while others are seen as death. Remember, from our years of backtesting, the more positive the mainstream population views on assets, the less likely it is to rise. The more people believe that a coin is ‘end’, the greater the possibility of it appreciation.”
It is obvious that the two characteristics above show different market trend signals, but one thing is the same, that inflation is an important factor in causing the market to fall and driving users to lean towards cryptocurrencies.
Therefore, inflation is still an important factor in the trend of cryptocurrency market.
At present, some economists are worried that the Fed is risking another mistake and may be unable to cope with high inflation due to the excessive hike of rate hike of . The Fed could raise interest rates beyond the required level, which could trigger a recession beyond the necessary level.
"They have taken a lot of austerity measures," said Greg Mankiw, an economist at Harvard University, . "The recession is painful for a lot of people. I think Powell is right, and some pain may be inevitable...but you don't want to cause unnecessary trouble either."
Mankiw expects the Fed to slowly relax its brake foot, which may mean that at the next meeting, the Fed may discuss a 50 or 70 basis points hike, or just 50 basis points.
Once the economic recession arrives further, cryptocurrencies may face greater volatility crisis, but at the same time they will also gain new opportunities to attract more users to the crypto field.
Kevin O'Leary said in an interview that if stablecoins have regulatory rules, Bitcoin will break beyond its current range. He believes that if the stablecoin is supported by US policy makers, more institutional capital may enter cryptocurrency, driving Bitcoin price to rise .
O'Leary emphasized the need for stablecoin regulation, saying: "We are in a difficult area now because we lack regulation." He added that unless there is institutional support, Bitcoin will continue to stay in the range of $17,000-22,000. But such institutional support can only appear when stablecoins are regulated.
