[Uncle Ye Observation] On September 30, 2022, the "China Inclusive Financial Indicators Analysis Report (2021)" released by the official website of the People's Bank of China shows that in terms of comprehensive indicator data and related situations, the scale and development eff

[Uncle Ye Observation]

On September 30, 2022, the "China Inclusive Financial Indicators Analysis Report (2021)" released by the official website of Central Bank shows that in terms of comprehensive indicator data and related situations, the scale and development efficiency of my country's inclusive financial development have been simultaneously improved, and the sense of gain of inclusive financial services continues to increase.

So, in the context of the development of rural personal settlement business, what are the number and business growth of agricultural withdrawal service sites? Financial Yeshu will briefly analyze the relevant data from 2014 to 2021, in order to provide reference for the construction of various "stations" and business expansion of Rural Commercial Bank .

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Rural personal settlement business data

At the end of 2014, a total of personal bank settlement accounts were opened in rural areas, and the number of bank cards issued in rural areas was 1.614 billion. From 2015 to 2021, the annual growth range of personal accounts in rural areas was 20.98% to 2.74%, showing a volatile downward trend; The annual growth range of bank cards in rural areas was 37.61% to 3.26%, showing a continuous downward trend (see Figure 2 of this article for details).

By the end of 2021, there will be 4.87 billion and 3.92 billion personal bank accounts and bank cards in rural areas respectively. Among them, there were 280 million personal credit cards (including loan-to-loan integrated cards) in rural areas, an increase of 5.66% year-on-year, and the growth rate was still higher than the average growth rate of 2.83% of credit cards during the same period. This is consistent with the overall growth and average growth of rural consumption during the same period, which are slightly higher than the urban and rural average.

It is worth mentioning that as of the end of the second quarter of this year, a total of 13.886 billion personal bank accounts were opened nationwide, an increase of 6.49% year-on-year; 9.299 billion personal bank cards were opened, an increase of 2.07% year-on-year. The growth rate of personal bank accounts and bank cards has slowed down significantly. Financial Ye Uncle believes that this is related to the strong risks of commercial banks strengthening "counter-voltage" measures and strictly controlling personal newly opened accounts since this year.

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assisting farmers financial service business data

first, number of sites . In July 2011, the central bank issued the "Notice on Promoting Bank Card Assisting Farming Withdrawal Services", which plans to achieve basic coverage of bank card Assisting Farming Withdrawal Services in rural townships and administrative villages across the country by the end of 2013, to meet the basic financial needs of various agricultural subsidy funds, daily small cash withdrawals, balance inquiries, etc.

At the end of June 2014, there were about 900,000 agricultural withdrawal service points in rural areas. At the end of 2015, the number of sites reached a historical maximum of 997,500. From 2016 to 2020, the number of agricultural withdrawal service points in the first two years decreased year-on-year, and the number of increased year-on-year in the last two years. At the end of 2021, there were 811,000 service points for agricultural withdrawal, a year-on-year decrease of about 9.2% (see Figure 3 attached to this article for details).

However, at the end of 2021, the coverage rate of financial institutions in townships reached 98.17%, further increase over the previous year; the coverage rate of basic payment services of administrative village banks reached 99.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous year. Of course, the increase in bank service coverage in townships and administrative villages is related to the trend that their number may be relatively reduced. For example, according to authoritative data from the civil affairs department, at the end of 2021, the number of townships nationwide was 38,558, a decrease of 183 from the previous year; the number of village committees was 490,000, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%.

Figure 3

Second, site business situation . First, look at the number of transactions. In 2016, the total number of transactions in payment business (including withdrawals, remittances, agency payments, etc.) of agricultural withdrawal service sites was 495 million, reaching the historical maximum. 2021 transactions were 405 million, an increase of 1.50% year-on-year (see Figure 4 attached to this article for details).

Judging from the average number of transactions in service points, it was 503.3 in 2016, 535.5 in 2018 (relative maximum), 446.7 in 2020, and 499.4 in 2021. Financial Ye Uncle believes that the trend of decreasing average transactions in the medium and long term reflects that the on-site business of agricultural service points may shrink overall; however, the short-term rebound changes reflect that the demand for on-site services of rural customers is relatively stable under changes in prevention and control situations (the total number of transactions has increased slightly), and due to the decrease in the number of sites, the average transaction number has increased instead.

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followed by, from the transaction amount. Similarly, the transaction volume of agricultural withdrawal points reached a maximum of 424.778 billion yuan in 2016. During the next five years, the transaction amount showed a continuous downward trend; among them, and were 348.68 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of -1.26% (see Figure 5 of this article for details).

From the analysis of the average transaction amount of the service point, the "average" amount in 2021 was 430,000 yuan, and the value was within the volatility range from 2015 to 2020 (395,000 yuan to 432,000 yuan). According to the average amount of each transaction, the "average" amount of 2021 was 860.9 yuan , which is relatively lower than the amount in 2015 and 2020, but higher than the "average" amount from 2016 to 2019.

Figure 5

Related influencing factors data analysis

first, the number and proportion of rural population decreased . During the "Six General" in November 2010, the number of rural population in my country was 674.15 million, accounting for 50.32%. With the acceleration of urbanization and the decline in the natural population growth rate, the rural population decreased to 488.35 million by the end of 2021, and the proportion decreased to 35.5% (see Figure 6 of this article for details). The absolute decrease in the rural population has a significant impact on the growth of rural financial business scale.

Second, the degree of electronic substitution in rural businesses has increased . At the end of 2017, the proportion of adults using electronic payment in rural areas was 66.51%; by the end of 2020, this proportion increased to 82.72%. At present, the average electronic replacement rate of many rural financial institutions in in the eastern and central regions is above 90%, which has a great impact on the on-site business growth space of agricultural withdrawal service points.

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Conclusion of Ye Uncle

To sum up, in 2021, the number of agricultural withdrawal service points in rural areas decreased by 82,300 compared with the previous year, and the annual transaction amount decreased by 4.444 billion yuan compared with the previous year. This relatively stable and slightly reduced trend is not only short-term (annual), but also medium- and long-term. Behind this phenomenon is the trend of decreasing the total rural population and the popularization of rural smartphones and mobile banking.

Under this trend that exceeds the expectations of some industry insiders, the business growth space of commercial banks simply sinks into offline service channels and creates financial scenarios in rural basic financial service sites (such as various "stations") may be relatively limited . In the later stage, for the construction and operation of village-level financial service points, it is necessary to focus on how to provide excellent services, strengthen integration, control costs and prevent risks. At least in terms of quantity, it may not be "to go long", but "to be "to be refined" in quality.