This year's "National Day" holiday (October 1-October 7, the same below), the epidemic situation in many parts of the country is still in the stage of strict control, and it is advocated to celebrate the festival locally. In addition, the industry is still in the stage of bottoming out and rebounding, and the performance of the property market is lower than expected. According to the monitoring data of Zhuge House Search Data Research Center, during this year's National Day holiday, 4,474 new houses were sold in key cities, a decrease of 47.1% from the same period last year; at the same time, the overall performance of the second-hand housing market was better than the new housing market. Monitoring data from the Beike Research Institute showed that the average daily transaction number of second-hand housing units in 50 cities increased by about 54% year-on-year, an increase of about 3% from the same period in 2020, and the activity of housing viewing on the demand side has also increased.
The new house market is differentiated, and the transaction volume of new houses in Dalian and Jinan has increased
According to the monitoring data of Zhuge House Search Data Research Center, during this year's National Day holiday, 4,474 new houses were sold in 15 cities (including Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Wuhan, Suzhou , Dalian, Qingdao , Dongguan , Wenzhou , Ningbo , Jinan, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Chengdu, Foshan , the same below) were sold 4,474 new houses, a decrease of 47.1% from the same period last year, and the transactions are still weak.
points in the city, the transaction volume of new houses in 4 of the 15 cities increased compared with the same period last year, while the transaction volume of new houses in the remaining 11 cities decreased compared with the same period last year. Among them, Dalian ranked first in the growth of new home transactions, with a total of 74 units sold, an increase of 80.5% over the same period last year; followed by Jinan, with 572 new home transactions, an increase of 36.5% over the same period last year. Among the cities where new home transaction volume has declined, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other cities all fell by more than 50%; the new home transaction volume in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen was 196, 187 and 486 respectively, down 86.9%, 74.2% and 55% respectively compared with the same period last year.
According to monitoring data from China Index Academy, during this year's National Day holiday, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 20 key monitored cities decreased by 37.7% compared with the same period last year. Some cities performed more year-on-year under the low base in the same period last year, but the overall transaction decline was still large. However, considering that the online signing data has a certain lag, combined with corporate feedback and subscription situations, the real estate market in some cities has recovered to a certain extent.
Among them, new houses in Beijing are significantly differentiated, sales offices of high-quality properties are relatively lively, and there are relatively many viewers, while sales offices of projects with large regional supply and large homogeneity are relatively deserted. Chen Wenjing, Market Research Director of Index Business Department of China Index Academy, analyzed: "Overall, the overall new and second-hand housing market in Beijing has gradually recovered, the real estate market has stabilized, and the confidence of home buyers has gradually returned. Especially since mid-to-late September, a large number of new properties have been launched in the market, including many hot properties. The subscription data is relatively good, which has a driving effect on market expectations. However, the online registration data has been delayed, resulting in a large decline in transaction data."
In Shenzhen, during the National Day holiday, developers' pace of pushing goods has been significantly accelerated, and many properties have rushed to enter the market before the festival. Judging from the sales site, the popularity of many properties has increased significantly. From the perspective of transactions, the market differentiation is obvious, and some high-end improvement projects and good-quality and high-priced projects have been sold well.
In terms of second-tier cities, taking Nanjing as an example, during the National Day holiday, Nanjing has subscribed about 2,000 commercial housing units, which has increased significantly compared with the data in the previous two weeks. In response, Chen Wenjing said that during the National Day holiday, with the help of policy benefits and the concessions of real estate companies, the overall performance of the Nanjing market is still acceptable, and the number of project visits has increased. In Zhengzhou, the overall performance of the new housing market is lower than that of previous years, and most real estate projects promote projects through price cuts. The number of visits and transaction volumes of improvement projects showed a rebound trend, while the number of visits and transaction volumes of urgently needed projects performed poorly. In this regard, Chen Wenjing pointed out that overall, Zhengzhou's real estate market is still in the bottoming stage.
This year's National Day holiday transactions representing the city's newly built commercial housing transactions
Description: Beijing's 2021 National Day holiday transaction data excludes two centralized online signing projects Evergrande ; the total changes in the average daily transaction area compared with the 2019-2021 National Day holidays do not include Chengdu and Nanchong .Photo/China Index Research Institute provides
The second-hand housing market has heated up, and the average daily transaction volume and viewed volume of second-hand housing in 50 cities have increased year-on-year
It is worth mentioning that on the eve of National Day, the central bank , the Ministry of Finance and other cities successively issued incentive policies such as interest rate reduction, house exchange and tax reduction in some cities, which boosted market confidence and enabled some second-hand housing buyers to enter the market faster. Therefore, during the National Day holiday, the overall performance of the second-hand housing market will be better than the new housing market.
Statistics from Beike Research Institute show that during the National Day holiday, the average daily transaction number of second-hand houses in 50 cities increased by about 54% year-on-year, an increase of about 3% over the same period in 2020. By city, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in 90% of the 50 cities increased year-on-year, among which the number of second-hand houses sold in Dongguan, Chengdu, , Xiamen, , Foshan, Suzhou and other cities exceeded twice the same period last year.
house viewing activity has also increased on the demand side. Statistics from Beike Research Institute show that the average daily number of second-hand houses in 50 cities increased by 7% year-on-year, and the number of customers in more than 60% of cities increased by year-on-year, while the number of customers in Dongguan, Xiamen, Chengdu and other cities increased by more than 50% year-on-year.
At the same time, according to statistics from the 58 Anju Real Estate Research Institute, the second-hand housing market in four first-tier cities is better than the national average. Among them, Shenzhen has the largest increase, up 88% compared with the same period last year; Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai have risen by 31%, 26% and 22% compared with the same period last year respectively.
In this regard, Lu Qilin, research director of 58 Anju Real Estate Research Institute, believes that on the eve of National Day, a number of favorable policies for the real estate market have been continuously introduced, especially the "tax refund" policy, which is definitely a major benefit for first-tier cities, cities that mainly focus on the second-hand housing market. First of all, the demand for real estate market in first-tier cities is basically mainly based on improving groups. The personal income tax refund for replacement demand will greatly reduce their home purchase costs and increase the demand for house exchange in the market; secondly, it will increase the willingness of some landlords to change houses. Within two or three months after the policy is introduced, the market listing volume will gradually increase, thereby increasing market supply. The increase in supply will also be beneficial to the increase in transaction volume and maintain the stability of housing prices.
It is worth mentioning that in Zhengzhou, with the gradual resumption of work of previously suspended properties, the demand for housing purchases has shifted from the second-hand housing market to the new housing market, which has led to a significant decline in the buying popularity of the second-hand housing market in Zhengzhou. Statistics from 58 Anju Real Estate Research Institute show that during the National Day holiday, the popularity of second-hand housing purchase demand in Zhengzhou fell by 43% month-on-month.
Industry: The new housing market may gradually stabilize in the fourth quarter
Looking forward to the fourth quarter, Chen Xiao, senior analyst at Zhuge House Search Data Research Center, said that with the central bank, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission , the Ministry of Finance and other companies taking successive actions, it has released major positive effects on the property market. At the same time, many places have gradually deepened policies based on cities, which is of great significance to boosting the real estate market and is conducive to promoting rigidity and improving the release of housing purchase demand. The central government has introduced a policy combination, and the policy effect is expected to be more significant, and the real estate market is expected to be recovered at an accelerated pace in the fourth quarter.
Chen Wenjing also pointed out that the continuous optimization of policies has repaired market confidence to a certain extent. In addition, real estate companies have increased their marketing efforts during the National Day holiday, and the activity of the real estate market in some cities has increased. In the short term, home buyers' wait-and-see sentiment is still there, and it will take time for the previous policy to be effective. If the policy continues to be strengthened and supporting policies in various places continue to follow up and implement, home buyers' sentiment is expected to continue to recover, and the new housing market may gradually stabilize in the fourth quarter.
In terms of second-hand housing, Chen Xiao said that overall, during the "National Day" holiday, hot second-tier cities performed more prominently. Against the backdrop of the gradual shift in the focus of regulation to key second-tier cities, second-tier cities are ready to go, and transactions are expected to be expected in the fourth quarter.
Beijing News reporter Zhang Xiaolan
edited by Wu Xin Proofreading Wu Xingfa
