data shows that the price of TDI ( toluene diisocyanate ) began to rise again on September 28, with rising 1.3%, with a quotation of 19,601 yuan/ton. Since August 3, has accumulated a 30% increase. After this period of increase, the TDI price has approached its high of 19,800 yuan/ton in February this year. Under conservative estimates, analysts from Guosen Securities calculated that the average annual growth rate of TDI demand in the next few years will be around 5.52%. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, Guohai Securities believes that chemical industry will usher in two main lines of domestic and external recovery, and the export volume of Chinese chemical products to Europe will increase significantly.
Specifically for listed companies, Wanhua Chemical announced that starting from October 2022, Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. has a listing price of in China's polymerized MDI (up 2,300 yuan/ton); 23,000 yuan/ton) and 2,000 yuan/ton (up 2,000 yuan/ton) from September.
As the price of natural gas in Europe rose sharply, a total of 32% of energy-intensive companies were forced to cut production in all or partly, and their index was twice the average level of the entire industry. European MDI and TDI production both exceed one-quarter of the world, and MDI and TDI in European and American chemical plants have a supply gap.
agency pointed out that against the backdrop of increased uncertainty in natural gas imports in Europe, natural gas prices are expected to remain high. Natural gas is an important raw material for industrial energy and some chemical products in Europe. Currently, the varieties with a high proportion of production capacity in Europe include vitamins, methionine, PVP, MDI, TDI, m-cresol, etc. For domestic related companies, on the one hand, it is expected to benefit from the price increase benefits brought by the regional price increase of important European chemicals to the world. On the other hand, it can take advantage of the relatively low domestic raw material costs to increase overseas export competitiveness.
Guosen Securities Research Report mentioned that in terms of pure MDI, As of September 8, Shanghai supply quotations quotations quotations 18200-18800 yuan/ton, and imported supply quotations 18200-18800 yuan/ton. In terms of TDI, enters 2022. The intensification of geopolitical conflicts may cause the European energy crisis to intensify significantly. European chemical companies will continue to be negatively affected by the increase in energy costs and the shortage of raw materials. Recently, the TDI price difference between the European and Chinese markets has continued to widen to more than US$1,400/ton. At present, the inventory pressure in the mid-to-downstream of TDI is not high, but the digestion of terminal demand is still slow. Analysts recommend actively paying attention to overseas device operation, export trends of domestic manufacturers, etc.
From the perspective of medium- and long-term demand, in terms of MDI, global MDI demand has continued to grow in the past 10 years, from 4.65 million tons in 2011 to 7.385 million tons in 2020, with a CAGR of 5.27%, higher than the growth rate of GDP during the same period. It is predicted that demand will grow at a compound growth rate of 5% (within the 4%-6% range) in the next five years. Guosen Securities is optimistic that the supply and demand pattern of MDI in the medium and long term will still be positive, and the promotion of legacy-free furniture will create a growth point for MDI demand. In terms of TDI, 69% of TDI is used to prepare polyurethane soft bubbles, and 62% of polyurethane soft bubbles are used to produce soft furniture. Under conservative estimates, analysts estimate that the average annual growth rate of TDI demand in the next few years will be around 5.52%.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, Guohai Securities believes that chemical industry will usher in two main lines of domestic and foreign recovery. As Europe's high energy prices are gradually transmitted to chemical products, European chemical products prices have increased, and the gap between domestic chemical prices and Europe's prices continues to widen. In addition, the price of sea freight prices has fallen, analysts believe that the export volume of Chinese chemical products to Europe will increase significantly.
related concept stocks :
Cangzhou Dahua (600230.SH): mainly engages in the production and sales of chemical products. The company has three sets of TDI devices, with a total TDI production capacity of 150,000 tons/year, accounting for 18% of the country's total production capacity, ranking fourth in the world.As China's third largest TDI supplier and the largest TDI manufacturer in China, its production capacity is second only to Covestro .25 million tons and BASF .16 million tons. It adopts Swedish international chemical technology and has an annual output of 30,000 tons, a TDI device with an annual output of 50,000 tons and a TDI device with an annual output of 70,000 tons, with a total production capacity of 150,000 tons/year.
Wanhua Chemical (600309.SH): mainly engages in the research and development and production of series petrochemical products such as polyurethane (MDI, TDI, polyether polyol ), ethylene , propylene and its downstream PP, PVC, acrylic , acrylic and other petrochemical products. The company is a world's leading MDI supplier and service provider, and is a global mainstream supplier of TDI, ADI, polyether , TPU and other products. The company's subsidiary in Hungary has an MDI production capacity of 350,000 tons/year and a TDI production capacity of 250,000 tons/year.
xingfa Group (600141.SH): Company is one of the few leading companies in the domestic phosphorus chemical industry with the "integrated mineral and electrochemical integration" industry chain. It is currently mainly engaged in the mining and sales of phosphate ore , and the production and sales of chemical products such as phosphate , phosphate fertilizer , glyphosate , silicone and other chemical products.
Satellite Chemistry (002648.SZ): Company has been committed to the development of the C3 industry chain, covering the research and development, production and sales of products such as acrylic, acrylic acid, acrylate , acrylate textile emulsion, polyacrylate sodium salt ( hyperabsorbent resin ). It is the first listed company in China to integrate the C3 industry chain and is also the largest acrylic production company in China.
