Gold and silver oil surged overnight, silver soared 8.9%, and crude oil rose 4.5%. What big thing happened? What do you think about the future market?
Although I am not very interested in understanding what has happened, when we invest, we must understand the ins and outs of the entire financial market, especially before some major data, we need to be careful, because the release of data will change market expectations and affect the market rhythm. Yesterday, gold and silver were in the US session, and the Asian and European sessions have been consolidating. The trend of the US dollar index is weak because countries intervene in the exchange rate and The impact of the expected on the interest rate hike in Europe. One week after the Federal Reserve raised , the market has been digested. The expected sharp drop in gold and crude oil has been fulfilled. This week is the non-agricultural week, Wednesday's ADP data, Thursday's initial unemployment claims, and Friday's non-agricultural population employment data are all very important. needs to focus on US inflation data and employment data in the future, which will affect the later interest rate hike in and the economic recession signals.
Yesterday The US ISM manufacturing PMI recorded 50.9 in September, the lowest since May 2020, close to complete stagnation, and manufacturing orders contracted for the third time in 4 months. PMI data reflects future economic changes. The report also showed that the U.S. manufacturing employment index in September was 48.7, and the manufacturing new order index was 47.1. This data shows that US manufacturing continues to expand, but the growth rate is the lowest since the pandemic began to recover, indicating that demand is weakening. As we said earlier, any small inflation data can cause a big market, because the recession signal will directly change the Fed's interest rate hike process and the demand for commodity . So why is the data so poor this time, and the market has risen instead? It is obvious that this is the decoupling of the financial market and entities. The focus of the market is still on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike process. Because of the poor data, the Federal Reserve may not be so aggressive in the future, and then US stocks and gold, silver and oil began to soar, which is the main reason for the market's rise. How to view
later? Logically speaking, I think the process of interest rate hike will not change. Wall Street is just taking advantage of the holiday to find a reason for the rebound. Although gold and silver have shown a wave of upward trend, the increase is limited. Yesterday's rise has reached the pressure range. The pressure level of gold is 1700-1720 and silver is 20.8-21 US dollars, which are important pressure levels. It has been touched now. The next step is likely to be a decline. Under the suppression of strong US dollars and interest rate hikes, there will be a lot of room for gold and silver to fall. This rise will also open up downward space for the non-agricultural decline. Gold looks to 1480 in the long term, and silver looks to 17.5-21 US dollars. The fundamentals of crude oil are relatively complex. With the background of the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate hikes and the global high inflation is heading for a recession, the outlook for oil prices is not very optimistic. Referring to historical recession cycles, oil demand may drop from 2 million to 3 million barrels per day. From the supply side, under the influence of possible production cuts in the short term, European energy shortages and the arrival of cold winter, crude oil supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be tighter than in the third quarter. Therefore, the short-term crude oil trend is relatively strong, but the technical side has already broken the long-term upward trend line. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly in the range of 76.5-86.5.
0 During the National Day holiday, there are only paper gold paper silver in China. My suggestion is that you can take this opportunity to clear the stock of paper gold paper silver. Don’t think that it’s early or waiting for it. These products can’t be traded soon. Instead of staying forcibly leveling, it’s better to find a high point to close it and it’s comfortable to close it. above analysis is purely personal opinion and is for reference only and is not intended as operational advice. friends who like to trade gold, silver and oil and domestic commodity can help like and follow. Your support is my motivation for continuous updates.
