html$1 continues to negatively impact risky assets, but that has not stopped Bitcoin and the selected altcoins from showing several strong rebounds this week.
S&P 500 Index fell about 5% this week, while Nasdaq Composite Index fell more than 5.5%. Investors are worried that the aggressive rate hike of the Federal Reserve hike of interest rates may lead to a downturn in the economy. Analysts keep an eye on the two-year and 10-year Treasury yield curves that predict the recession have seen their biggest inversion since 2000.
Amid all the chaos, it is encouraging that Bitcoin (BTC) outperformed the two major indexes, down less than 4% this week. Could this be a sign that the bottom of Bitcoin may be coming?
On-chain data shows that long-term holders lose money in Bitcoin supply reached about 30%, 2% to 5% lower than the level when Bitcoin bottomed out in March 2020 and December 2018. The indicator suggests that Bitcoin may have more room for decline before it bottoms out.
Let's look at the charts of the S&P 500 index, the dollar index (DXY), and major cryptocurrencies to determine if the trend will continue or if a reversal is likely.
SPX
S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell below 3,900 point support on September 16, and bears successfully held that level in retests on September 17 and 21. So if you break through 3,900 points, this will become an important level to watch out for. Become the first sign of a bull's comeback.
downwardly 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) (3,920) indicates favorable to the bears, but the relative strength index (RSI) of the oversold area indicates that the index may attempt to rebound from a strong support area between 3,715 and 3,636.
The weak rebound in this area will indicate a lack of positive buying from the bulls. This could increase the likelihood of a break below the key June low of 3,636. If this support collapses, the index could plummet to 3,325.
On the contrary, a strong rebound from the support zone may result in a rebound to 3,900. A breakout through this resistance may herald potential trend changes in the near future.
DXY
The US dollar index (DXY) has been in a strong upward trend over the past few months. Every decline is actively bought and the index continues to climb to new heights. When the price rebounded from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($108) on September 13, the shorts’ attempt to force a trend change failed.
After swaying in a narrow range of , the index broke through to a 52-week high on September 21. This resumes the uptrend, and the index may then attempt to rebound to 115 next.
The sharp rebound in the past few days has pushed RSI into the overbought area, indicating that there may be a small consolidation or correction in the coming days.
0 Daily Moment (109) is an important support level to watch out for, as breaking below it may cause the price to fall to the 50-day Moment. The bears will have to pull the price below 107 to indicate that the recent trend may change.
Bitcoin/USDT
Buyers have been buying Bitcoin that fell below $18,626 but failed to push the price above the 20-day moving average ($19,841), indicating that the bears are not in the mood to give up their advantage. This increases the likelihood of retesting an important June low of $17,622.
breaks below and closes below $17,622, which may cause panic and the BTC/USDT pair may fall to the next major support level of $14,500.
Although the downward tilt moving average indicates favorable short positions, the positive divergence of RSI indicates that selling pressure may be decreasing. This view may be strengthened if the bulls push and keep the price above the 20-day moving average.
This may push the price toward the upper resistance zone between the 50-day moving average (21,200) and $22,799. Such a move would suggest that the pair could continue its bottoming pattern for longer over a wider range of $17,622 to $25,211.
Ether /USDT
Ether (ETH) has been trading in the downward channel mode in the past few days. In the channel, traders usually buy near support and sell near resistance.
Boters tried to push the price down below the channel on September 21, but the bulls successfully defended that level. The bulls will try to push the price higher to the 20-day moving average ($1,467), where they may face strong resistance from the bears.
If the price falls from the current level or the 20-day moving average, it means that the market sentiment is still negative and the traders are selling every time they rebound slightly. The bears will once again try to pull the price down below the channel and challenge the $1,000 psychological support level.
On the contrary, if the price rises above the 20-day moving average, the pair may reach the resistance line of the channel. Breakthrough and closing above the channel may indicate potential trend changes.
BNB/USDT
BNB/USDT
BNB has been fluctuating between the 20-day moving average ($276) and $258 in the past few days. This suggests that bulls are defending the direct support of $258, but they failed to push the price above the 20-day moving average.
This narrow range transaction is unlikely to last for a long time. If the buyer pushes the price above the 20-day moving average, the BNB/USDT pair may rise to the resistance line in the downward channel. The bulls will have to overcome this obstacle, indicating that the correction phase may have ended. The pair may then attempt to rebound to $338.
If the price falls from the current level or the resistance line of the channel, the bears will try to drop the pair below $258 again. If they manage to do this, the pair may fall to the support line.
Ripple /USDT
XRP broke the upper resistance level of USD 0.41 on September 20. The bears tried to trap aggressive bulls on September 21, but the buyers had other plans. They bought hard on September 22 and pushed the price above the upper resistance level. The pattern target for breaking through the range of
from USD 0.30 to USD 0.41 is USD 0.52, which is also reaching the same level on September 23. This dramatic change pushes RSI into overbought zones, indicating a minor correction or consolidation in the short term. The long wick on the candlestick on September 23 showed profits at a higher level.
Usually, after breaking through from a certain range, the price often retests the breakout level. In this case, the price could drop to $0.41. If the bulls turn this level into support, XRP/USDT will try to resume the gains. If the price rises above $0.56, the next stop may be $0.66. On the other hand, a break below $0.41 may indicate that the recent breakthrough is a bear trap.
ADA/USDT
Cardano ( ADA ) rebounded from the uptrend line on September 22, indicating that the bulls are actively defending this level. Prices reached near the downtrend line on September 23, but the long wick on the candlesticks indicate that shorts are active at higher levels.
0 Daily moving average (US$0.46) has begun to decline, with RSI slightly below the midpoint, indicating that the bears have a smaller advantage. If the price continues to fall and fall below the uptrend line, the ADA/USDT pair may fall to $0.40. This is an important level for bulls to defend, as breaking below this level may return to the downtrend.
If the bulls want to gain the upper hand, they will have to push and maintain the price above the downtrend line. The pair could then rise to $0.60 and the shorts could create strong resistance again.
Sol/USDT
Solana ( SOL ) is squeezed between the 20-day moving average ($33) and the direct support level of $30. This indicates the state of balance between buyers and sellers.
This uncertainty is unlikely to last for a long time. The bears will try to control the situation by pulling the price down below $30. If this happens, the SOL/USDT pair could fall to a strong support level of $26.The bulls are expected to defend this level actively, as if that support level breaks, the SOL/USDT pair could experience a panic sell-off and drop to $20.
To invalidate this negative view in the short term, buyers must push the price above the moving average and push the upper resistance to $39. If they succeed, the pair could rebound to $48.
Dogcoin /USDT
Buyers bought below the direct support level on September 21, but they are working to maintain Dogecoin (DOGE) above the 20-day moving average (USD 0.06) on September 23. This indicates that the bears continue to sell in the rebound.
shorts will try to increase their advantage by dropping the price below the direct support near $0.06. If they do, the DOGE/USDT pair could widen the decline to a June low of $0.05. This is a key level, as a break below this level may indicate the beginning of the next downtrend.
Conversely, if the price remains above the 20-day moving average, the pair may rise to the 50-day moving average (USD 0.07). If the bulls break through this resistance, the pair could rebound to $0.09.
point/USDT
Buyers successfully defended the key support level of $6 from September 21 to 22, but a small rebound indicated demand was exhausted at a higher level. The longer Polkadot ( DOT ) trades below the 20-day moving average (6.87), the greater the chance of falling below $6.
If the shorts fall and keep the price below $6, the selling momentum may rebound and the DOT/USDT pair may resume the downtrend. The next major support level for the downside is $4.
Or if the price rebounds from $6 or rises sharply after falls below support level , it means that the bulls continue to buy at a lower level. The bulls will have to push the price above the moving average to clear the way for a possible rise to $10, which could once again become a barrier.
In the crypto industry, if you want to seize the next bull market opportunity, you have to have a high-quality circle, so that everyone can join forces to keep warm and maintain insight. If you are the only one, looking around at a loss and finding that there is no one, it is actually very difficult to persevere in this industry.
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