After a turbulent week in the market, intensive data from the United States will continue to dominate this trend this week, and durable goods orders will be the first to provide guidance tonight. The market expects the monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States to fall by 0.5% in August, with the previous value of zero growth. If it meets expectations, it will slow down for two consecutive months and is also the worst performance since February this year.
The reason why durable goods order data is important to the market is not only because it can reflect the degree of activity of the manufacturing industry, because the production of durable goods often requires a lot of manpower, material resources and financial resources. On the other hand, durable goods refer to essentially durable and durable items that contribute directly to core retail sales data as part of a wider consumer product category.
Last Friday, the United States announced that corporate activity in September shrank for the third consecutive month, but the decline slowed down, and improvements in global supply chains eased inflationary pressures for companies. The initial value of the manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 51.8, with an estimated 51.1, with the new order index growing for the first time in four months.
Other key data have been slowing down recently, such as tracking a series of indicators that measure activity in the job market, manufacturing, financial markets and housing markets - the Chamber of Commerce's leading indicators have declined for six consecutive months, indicating that economic activity across the U.S. economy will continue to slow down more broadly and may contract.
Based on Feder Hawk interest rate policy to suppress inflation will put the US economy into recession. Last week, U.S. stock markets have felt a continuous blow. The three major stock indexes all fell sharply on the weekly lines. Nasdaq fell 5.03%, and the second consecutive weekly decline of more than 5%, S&P 500 fell 4.77%, Dow Jones Industrial Index fell 4%, continuing the downward trend on Monday.
If durable goods orders maintain positive growth or are better than expected, it means that corporate investment is still relatively strong, while if the decline accelerates, it means that both the company and the consumer level are not optimistic about the economic outlook. Previous trends show that when the data is far below expectations, US stocks usually have obvious downward pressure after the announcement, US bond yield will also fall as well as the US dollar, while gold prices will seek short-term upwards.
However, even if the latest data is released, it may not have obvious negative guidance for the US dollar. As I saw last Friday, due to the intensification of the global recession prospects, more funds choose to enter the US dollar to seek hedge unless the US dollar undergoes technical adjustments at a high level. But the weakness of US stocks is expected to continue. After the Dow Jones Industrial Average first fell below this year's low, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq may also follow the low. In addition to tonight's data, the final value of the US Q2 GDP on Thursday and the PCE price index on Friday will determine the final performance of this month.
so far this year 1Nasdaq has fallen by about 31%. As the dollar strengthens, technology stocks are expected to have more downside space this year. Data from Bloomberg Intelligence shows that information technology companies' earnings per share are expected to fall by 6.6% year-on-year in the third quarter. More people may reduce their exposure to technology stocks, or buy after adjusting to a lower valuation.
