Under the background of strong interest rate hikes in the US dollar, the yen depreciated by 32%, the pound depreciated by 17%, the euro depreciated by 13%, and the RMB depreciated by 11%... Under the background of
, the yen cannot be increased, and China is unwilling to increase it. Everyone has their own difficulties. Japan does not raise interest rates because of government bonds, and China does not raise interest rates because there is still room for room for it.
This monetary chaos is expected to show clues in March next year, because Fed wants to end at that time.
1, Japan, GDP went back
Last week, after the yen fell below 145, the Bank of Japan began to interfere in the exchange rate . In US dollars, Japan's domestic GDP will fall below 4 trillion, the first time in nearly 30 years.
Japanese media said that after 30 years of experience disappearing, there will be another 20 years of regression!
Japan has always believed in the economic system that it is completely free and does not control foreign exchange. However, in the face of the rapid depreciation of the yen, they could not sit still. Take the initiative to buy the yen and sell the US dollar to stabilize the exchange rate. This is the first time that Japan has actively intervened in the foreign exchange market in recent decades.
The bullets that can intervene currently have 1 trillion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves. I don’t know how long it can last... because these funds need to buy some necessities such as energy and food.
This year, Japan's automobile production has been reduced, and fewer and fewer industrial products have been exported, resulting in a significant decline in the surplus capacity and even a large deficit. If the US dollar is the financial asset, Japan is now like losing money.
It is not only these that cause headaches for Japan, but also national debt!
daily bonds are 256% of the total economy, with a total amount of 1026 trillion yen. On average, each Japanese bears 9.91 million yen, which is roughly equivalent to more than 500,000 yuan. After the United States experienced the epidemic, government bonds accounted for 121% of the total economy. In order to maintain the credibility of the US dollar, interest rate hikes have now begun. (Many people think that interest rate hikes are for inflation, haha!)
According to Western economic theory, in order to maintain the exchange rate, what Japan should do at this time is to follow the United States to raise interest rates.
, this road cannot be understood at all.
The current total amount of government bonds is supported by negative interest rate . If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates , the Japanese government will face 40 trillion yuan of interest expenses every year, and new debts cannot be issued at all. The government only has about 100 trillion yuan per year, of which 49 trillion yuan is issued.
The old ones can’t be paid back, and the new ones can’t be posted. What’s even more terrifying is that it has to face the sale of old national debts and collapses in an instant!
yen depreciation is inevitable, and the total GDP came to the early 1990s after 30 years of loss. However, the numbers are back, but the industrial advantages are never seen again.
In that era, Japan's total economy was the second, and the housing prices and stock markets were extremely prosperous. Japanese tourists are the most popular big shots in any scenic spot in the world.
All this is like a dream of yellow beams.
2. Europe, industries are migrating
. Affected by the high energy prices, Europe is moving into industry hollowing out , and enterprises migrate like migratory birds.
Eurozone's industrial output fell 2.3% year-on-year in July, a figure created by factories and employees being forced to take leave.
European Nonferrous Metals Association said that Europe has halved its aluminum and zinc production capacity. The largest steel manufacturer has stopped using European production capacity, and chemical giants have moved out to continue production...
German automobiles, chemicals and other industries are considering relocation, or have already moved out. The direction of
migration is China and the other is the United States.
According to the Wall Street news report, European steel, fertilizer and other manufacturers were forced to move, one of which was the United States. The recent moves in the United States are also at the right time. The recent policies for manufacturing and green energy are very attractive to European companies, especially in industries such as chemistry and batteries.
The European industrial system is already completely on the verge of paralysis. Ultimately, it mainly stems from the surge in energy prices.
The current ending is what the United States wants to see most. Once the euro, which stands opposite the US dollar, loses its industrial connotation, it basically loses its value. If the euro loses competitiveness, the credibility of the US dollar will be strengthened and the strategic significance of this wave will be completely completed.
The great changes in the Soviet Union back then made the United States take advantage of decades. Now that Europe has collapsed, it can be delayed for a while. This situation is in the interests of the United States.
For Europe, the start was pretty good, but now I can't go back. At that time, the energetic United States and Russia were in power, but finally found that it was to cut the thigh and cut the caesarean section. I don’t know how long it would be to be stubborn. What is more interesting is an aircraft purchase.
htmlOn September 22, Xiamen Airlines signed an agreement with Airbus to purchase 40 A320NEO series aircraft. Xiahang has been operating the single-model of Boeing . This action is very meaningful at this moment.Europe, I have to think deeply at this moment...
This wave of American operations consolidated the status of the US dollar and obtained some European industries. Japan and Europe were on the chopping board.
During the Qianlong period, Heshen fell Jiaqing fed. Europe and Japan, isn’t it the same? In March next year, everything will be settled. Most of those who do not raise interest rates will be seriously injured. Will the RMB get a share?
For some countries, hiring interest rates is passive and helpless, and there are not many people with independent confidence!
3. Tell me about the capital market
On Friday, the capital market continued to decline. And will we follow?
fundamental perspective, other countries are tightening, and we have always been independent monetary policy. Technically speaking, the bottom structure is being done at this time, and the continuous shrinkage has already shown the problem.
should not be particularly pessimistic at this time. The real estate market is a high decline. The stock market belongs to Tong Lao, and youth will last forever near 3,000 points.
The trend next week will be coming with a 5-minute rebound. This is just to focus on the pressure of 1 point 250 lines and 5 point 250 lines. In terms of pattern, it is not very meaningful to continue to to sell down here.
According to the holiday rules, it falls before the festival and rises after the festival, and rises before the festival and falls after the festival.
is about to have a long holiday, and the monthly and quarterly lines will end after the close next week. As long as you do not break the previous low point, a large-level bottom-type structure begins. All the upward trends at the quarterly line level are the beginning of a big market... When
is downward, think about the cheap price and when upward, think about the risks.
. Except for those big white horses, how can there be any bubbles in the stock market? The assets have been discounted a lot, where can I fall?
Before the festival, let’s talk about it first!
or above is for reference only. If there is any similarity, it is purely coincidental and will not be used as a basis for investment!
has one more week, and the rest day will never fall again. I think about it so much, I am looking forward to the holiday...
