(This article was written in the public account before, and now it is copied uniformly)
It turns out that in 2022 it is not very calm. It is time to the end of September, and I have been watching this year. The masks have not been completely lifted. This is a problem that has lasted for several years, and it is rare in history that has lasted more than three years. Because of masks, a series of problems have not been alleviated. , for example, has the impact on economic income in many aspects such as tourism, transportation, culture and tourism, catering, etc.
and big goose and Xiao Wu, this is an unexpected action. Many people's expectations were also wrong. They originally thought that parents were educating their children, but no matter how bad they were, they would be teaching their younger brother a lesson. Unexpectedly, I have a backer behind me. Some time ago, Daege said that she would end this matter as soon as possible. Many people thought that the dawn was coming. The result of was to increase the number of people. The way people wanted to end as soon as possible was to increase the price.
Then there is the continuous increase in interest rates in the beautiful country, which has a great impact on the economy. I will give you an example and you will understand. For example, we have foreign capital. These foreign capitals come to buy our stocks, whether it is a big white horse or a cyclical stock. They can't make two or three points in this market this year. As a result, when we look back, the exchange rate difference between and will be 6 points. It's too much of a loss here and there.
Their money is better to put it in your own home to eat interest. After going out, I lost a lot of money when I went back. This is why the funds will flow into them.
I don’t want to talk about other things anymore. Just the above three things are actually enough to fight in 2022. Someone asked me: "Shou Lao, is there any hope this year?" In fact, I repeatedly mentioned in my article at the beginning of the year that we are cautious about this year. Our market is flexible, it depends on whether to use it. is all in a dilemma, which is the current actual situation.
The transaction volume in the investment market has been not high recently, 700 to 800 billion? If monster stocks and Dabaima are removed, many of the thousands of companies in the market have already lacked liquidity.
Note, I'm talking about lack rather than lack, what is lack? First of all, the amount of funds is insufficient, and secondly, the result is that it can make it soar with a little money. Finally, if it is extremely lack of funds, it will fall. Because the price of requires funds to support it, even if it is loom , as long as it does not fall, there will still be funds to give it blood transfusions.
In contrast, the average price in Beijing is still above 60,000 yuan, and there are more than 100,000 yuan per square meter in the urban area, and the good location in the suburbs is 70,000 to 80,000 yuan. The houses that are qualified to sell in the city should be listed for more than 100,000 yuan, which does not include many people who are not qualified to queue up to sell.
What is this concept? For example, the 150,000 units listed now have an average of 7.5 million yuan per house in Beijing, which is equivalent to having more than 1 trillion yuan of selling orders on the selling orders. What is the purchasing power? The trading volume can be seen.
The current takeover power is seriously insufficient. Only those who need to buy a house with a real need will not buy it at this time. So how many people can pay an average of 7.5 million yuan in a real need? The threshold for this urgent need is a bit high.
So, now the housing prices here in Beijing are that sellers do not lower the price, and there are not many people buying, and those who are really anxious cannot buy too cheap.
Then add these points, because many people are unemployed in mask matters, is a difficult problem in the workplace and career. and then external disputes, and there is also the issue of interest rate hikes, has led to the hardship of the investment environment. The final result of is that you bought a house, which is easy to not pay off the loan, and you are ready to sell it but can’t sell it. Many people who have no choice but to end up being auctioned by the house.
At this time, we must not look at the price. This is my experience. should pay more attention to liquidity. If you sell a watermelon for 100,000, is it meaningless if no one buys it?
If you look at the future, the main force in buying a house should be around 1992 years, and the number of births in the next few days has been on a downward trend, which means that there are fewer newcomers than each generation. The capital market also needs newcomers, and most of the people who have been active are still born in the 1970s. This generation is now shouldering too much. I am talking about the early stages of the 1970s and 1980s. The real estate market needs them to help their children buy it. They are also the main force in the stock market. Even the third child has to rely on this group of people who have a second child.
Speaking of the stock market, we should actually count on the post-90s and post-00s, but each era is different. Due to various credit cards, online loans, mortgage loans, car loans, etc., and what is now called consumer loans, the consumption capacity of these two groups of young people has been seriously overdrawn. If neither of them saves, it is difficult to expect these two groups of young people to become the new force in the real estate market and the stock market.
This is why, the most people in the stock market are still born in the 1970s, and the new generation is actually not much, which is also the reason for the lack of liquidity. The post-80s generation enters the stock market due to the bull market in 2015, but there are still many differences between the post-80s generation and the post-90s generation.
In any market, liquidity is the most important thing, not the price. I used to have a friend who suffered a loss in the antique industry and bought a jadeware. He asked experts to identify some people who said it was worth millions, while others said it was worth nothing. As a result, no one could tell what he was. The final result was that he felt worth millions at one time, and then he thought that it was worthless.
To put it bluntly, it is because the buyer has no confidence, and they cannot tell whether this piece of jade is worth millions or is worthless.
is visible. Liquidity is related to two factors, one is purchasing ability and the other is purchasing confidence.
Now both of these parts are actually problematic. The ability is because of high debt, which is a rare stage phenomenon in history. In the past, our Chinese liked to save money, and this kind of advanced consumption is the behavior of foreigners, but now it is common for post-90s and post-00s to be seen.
is also a matter of confidence. Although you have been letting go, you don’t know where to put it. Even if it is replaced with gold or US dollars, it is possible, which will have little impact on prices. Now there is insufficient confidence in comprehensive investment. There are fires everywhere, interest rates are hiking, and meetings are raising, etc.
Neither the ability nor confidence problems can be recovered normally in the short term, but there can be a stimulating method in the short term, that is emotions, and the driving force of emotions is to use consciously to pull this market.
Today is Autumnal Equinox , the sixteenth solar term of the twenty-four solar terms and the fourth solar term of autumn.
has passed three-quarters of this year, and it has become a habit to be with everyone every day.
Good night, readers.
The original text comes from the official account: Snowball Sixty Old Man (huajia1959) Welcome to follow, there are all historical articles in it.
