Recently, I have seen many people's predictions of market . Whether it is a big V or some newcomers, they are betting on the market falling below 3,000 points, and some bet on the final rebound of the market is Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index . Today, I will start from the technical side and talk to you about the short-term and medium-term trends of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, and see if the index can lead the market to launch a large-scale counterattack. I will share my analysis with you.
first, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index gathers Shanghai Index 50 representative stocks, such as Petrochemical Double, China Telecom , CITIC Securities , China Ping An , China Life and other large market capitalization and heavyweight stocks, which have a great impact on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index. If this sector rises sharply, it will have a positive impact on the market trend.
The index has been on an upward trend for 8 years since 2014. It is not an exaggeration to say that it has gone through a bull market for 8 years. This can explain to a certain extent why the market has been swaying at 3,000 points, and some other stocks have fallen terriblely, but the market cannot fall. Will this decline end its eight-year bull market? Our analysis is as follows:
First, from the short-term trend, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index has the technical conditions for a short-term rebound.
1, in the past three months since the high of 3085.22 points on June 30, the index has not rebounded well, and the decline is divided into three parts: First, the most prominent is that from July 1 to August 3, there were only 6 trading days to rise, most of which were slightly rising, falling directly from the high point to 2705.73 points, a drop of 12.3%. Second, from August 3 to September 15, it has been fluctuating between 2700-2800 points. Third, on the 16th, a long shadow fell below 2700 points, and quickly fell to 2618.94 points.
2, how to analyze the trends of these three stages? The first phase of
decline was followed by a high of 3085.22 points that appeared with a sharp increase in trading volume. This indicates that someone shipped a large amount at this position, because the trading volume during this period can be called a large trading volume in the trend of the index, indicating that the scale of shipments is quite large.
The second stage is more than a month after the index trades sideways. MACD indicator began to climb slowly and no longer fall with the index. This shows that some funds were buying at low prices at this stage. This part of the funds is likely to be a process of replenishing funds for the early stage.
The third stage After September 16, it was a fast-selling trend, falling 119.71 points in 6 trading days. If the trend before September 16 is regarded as a main force absorbing it, the subsequent trend can also be regarded as digging a hole, and a short-term rebound will be ushered in.
Second, judging from the medium and long-term trends, the adjustment of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index has not yet ended.
This needs to be analyzed from the html January line trend of the index. In February 2021, the index hit a high of 4110.18 points, the second highest point in its history. The three short-term stages mentioned above are part of the overall major adjustment. The basis for saying that the mid-term trend has not bottomed out is:
First of all, the index hit a new low in this round of adjustments, and the trading volume hit a new low in the past three years. The so-called land volume reaches the land price, which means that Friday's 2618 points is not a low point at the monthly level.
Second and most important: the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 60-month line in March this year, closing below it and running below it for 2 months, rebounding in June. It can be regarded as a pullback to the 60 month line. In July, it effectively fell below the 60 month line again and experienced two consecutive declines. Why is it the most important? Because this is the first time since November 2014 that the Shanghai Composite Index has experienced falling below the 60 monthly line, which indicates that the index's medium-term trend is not optimistic. Since it has effectively fallen below the 60 monthly line, we will test the 120 monthly line at 2522 points.
Second, through the above analysis, we can draw a conclusion: due to the decline of the above three-stage formula, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index will rebound in the short term, and the rebound height is between 2700-2750 points.
Given the current turmoil in the peripheral market, no new funds have entered A-shares, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index is mostly large-cap stocks, and a large amount of funds are needed to support its rise. At present, this condition is not very good.
Generally speaking, the main force is to operate such large-cap stocks and sectors: invest money to raise the price, first burn the fire, and then rely on other funds in the market to push it up together, commonly known as the fire of everyone. However, many of the funds on the market are currently trapped, especially retail investors, who will not cut their losses and chase the rise of the index. Therefore, the height of the rebound is limited.
or above analyzes the medium and short-term trends of the Shanghai Composite Index, which also gives everyone a general understanding of the index situation. Whether the current trend of the index is the prelude to the end of its bull market in the past eight years needs to be tested in the remaining three months of this year. As A-shares are currently facing huge pressure from the external market, everyone’s hopes for the rebound of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index should not be too high. It is reminded that if this sector really rebounds sharply, its huge siphon effect on funds will make many small and medium-sized stocks worse. I don’t know what the bet on the big V that will rise sharply again will be like, or for some reason.
(The above are personal opinions and are for reference only. The stock market is risky, so be cautious when entering the market)
