33333 Vice Dean of the School of Economics, Fudan University Professor Liu Junmei
On September 12, the Russian Economic Conference pointed out that the budget surplus of the Russian Federation from January to August was 137.4 billion rubles (about 16.5 billion yuan), and its fiscal situation was better than that of most G20 countries. As of September 5, Russia's inflation rate was 14.1%, and is expected to be controlled at around 12% by the end of this year.
Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, foreign capital has withdrawn from Russia in batches. What is the current consumption and economic situation in Russia? How does Russia solve the inflation problem? What is the trend of the ruble exchange rate ? Sohu Think Tank talks with Professor Liu Junmei, Vice Dean of the School of Economics, Fudan University.
Liu Junmei pointed out that after foreign capital was withdrawn from Russia, Russia's imported products were greatly restricted. To solve the current problem, Russia has adopted the legalization of " parallel import " and has increased the strategy of substitution of imports from friendly countries.
"For example, Kazakhstan exports to Russia are mainly steel plates, etc., Coca-Cola produced in Kazakhstan has also begun to appear in Russian retail chains. . Kyrgyzstan has significantly expanded its exports to Russia's clothing and footwear. Uzbekistan exports to Russia are mainly cotton and fruits. At the same time, Eurasian Economic Union countries are helping Russia by importing necessary imported parts and manufacturing parts." Liu Junmei said.
. In the long run, Liu Junmei said that the country's import substitution industry can be developed .
Liu Junmei said that in August, under the initiative of Russia, the Eurasian Economic Union countries approved the use of their own currencies in mutual trade. Although these alternative imported products have solved the urgent problem to a certain extent, the living standards of Russian people will inevitably decline.
" But facing difficulties and economic collapse are two different things. Russia's economy will not collapse. ." Liu Junmei said that according to the results of the poll, half of the Russians are indifferent to the withdrawal of Western brands from Russia. Two-thirds of respondents (68%) said that their lives would not change. Meanwhile, 56% of respondents are confident that Russian manufacturers will replace foreign manufacturers.
Liu Junmei concluded that Russia's economic performance was better than expected, mainly due to the fact that the returns from energy exports were not fundamentally affected . But the uncertainty in the future is very great.
She analyzed that if Russia does not receive support from foreign high-tech and equipment in the future, then Russia's oil production will face a decline because there is not enough technology and equipment for mining. Then there will be a chain reaction, income will decline, and the national welfare fund will shrink, aggravate social tension.
In Liu Junmei's view, for Russia, the most fundamental thing is to change the economic structure , of course this is a difficult and long-term task.
While Russia's economy performed well, inflation levels were also better than expected. Liu Junmei pointed out that this is mainly due to the proper response of the central bank to , such as stabilizing the ruble exchange rate and controlling inflation expectations through measures such as ruble settlement order and interest rate hikes . In addition, the government's fiscal revenue has not declined sharply, which has ensured that various welfare expenditures are protected.
"Russia's inflation level is still relatively high in the horizontal comparison of the world, but vertically, it has been controlled very well, and the people's tolerance for inflation will be relatively high." Liu Junmei said.
In 2022, the ruble became the world's largest currency variety with the highest increase. What is the future trend of the ruble? Is there still room for appreciation? In response, Liu Junmei said that the future trend of the ruble depends on Russia's economic fundamentals. But Russia will not allow the ruble to continue to appreciate.
" Because the appreciation of the ruble is not conducive to exports and is not in line with Russia's interests. Therefore, it is expected that the appreciation of the currency in 2022 will not exceed 5% ." Liu Junmei said.
