On September 26, the Central Bank website released a message that in order to stabilize foreign exchange market expectations and strengthen prudent management, it was decided to raise the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of forward foreign exchange sales business from 0 to 20% from September 28, 2022. After the exchange rate is changed to
811, the foreign exchange rate risk reserve has undergone 5 adjustments. Every time, the exchange rate is in progress when the short-term fluctuations increase, and the exchange rate returns to the normal range after a period of time. The points marked on the graph are the adjustment time, and we can roughly see the trend.
So how does the risk reserve affect the exchange rate?
Forward foreign exchange risk reserve refers to the central bank's requirement for each transaction of foreign exchange by banks. Forward foreign exchange sales risk reserve = last month's forward foreign exchange sales contract amount * risk reserve ratio.
people say that a bank signed a contract of US$10 billion for forward foreign exchange sales last month. According to the risk reserve rate of 20%, it will pay US$2 billion this month. In one year, the central bank will unfreeze the 2 billion reserve fund and return it to the bank.
can be understood as this. The central bank wants to collect a certain amount of money from the bank (contract reserve), and part of the bank's funds are occupied (contract reserve), and this part of the money will lose interest income from lending, and the cost of bank foreign exchange sales increases...; As a result, the cost of customer foreign exchange purchases increases, forward foreign exchange sales contracts decrease, and the pressure of depreciation of the local currency is alleviated.
Here we can expand it slightly. As the Fed raises interest rates, the US dollar will appreciate if the trend remains the most comfortable to hold the US dollar. Zhang San changed last month, and under the law of true fragrance, it will affect Li Si, and then Wang Wu... will all exchange US dollars. This process is to sell RMB and buy US dollars. As more and more people join, short-term exchange rate fluctuates. In other words, your exchange of foreign exchange is shorting the RMB.
The results of several moves in foreign exchange reserves in history: August 2015, September 2017, August 2018, and October 2020, these times have taken short-term top and bottom leaps. Although they are not immediate, they are all operations near the turning point.
For ordinary investors, it is easy to get hurt in exchange rate fluctuations, so they should act cautiously...
Today's influx of northbound inflows is also related to this policy. Everyone wants to go to the store before the depreciation is over, and then wait for a lot of profits to wait for you after the return. At the same time, no one is a god and it is impossible to step on the spot accurately. Inflows in at the end of depreciation, this operation is definitely profitable.
explains this matter clearly today. After all, many people see this strange... The topic of
ends. Simply speaking, the market is really uninterested. At present, technical indicators are already completely short-term. Where do you say you want to fall here? It’s really not at this level because you’re walking casually.
After closing, we got a chicken blood and turned red. Now we have revealed our true colors and ate them back. Non-US currencies are all falling sharply, and they are experiencing the three-killing stocks, foreign exchange and debt, so how can there be any safe haven? The bearish rate alone is still very stable. Jiangnan Leather Factory jokes seem to have been lingering in my ears recently.
Technically, US stock had a good lower shadow last Friday. If it can stabilize today, it can rebound for three or two days to drive emotions...
However, today's Big A's shadow line is really good. Although each level has downward momentum, the large level is also displayed in this range. At present, we can only look at the Diamond Sutra to relieve it.
or above is for reference only. If there is any similarity, it is purely coincidental and is not used as a basis for investment.
After all, there is a sheep today, a cow tomorrow, a car... No one can stand it if this continues. At this time, only by looking at the conversation between Buddha and Subhuti can you understand the true meaning.
All conditioned phenomena are like dreams, illusions, bubbles, and shadows, like dew and lightning, and are regarded as such observation.
