Last week, the RMB reached 7.10, the next day, the yen was 145 am and 141 pm. It is said that the Japanese government and the central bank of took action to maintain market order. Although ycc is still at 0.25%, the trading volume is quite deserted. There is either no chance of arbitrage yen or the risk is a little greater than before.
On Friday, I came to a Hong Kong colleague, changed my new company, and went back to Macau for a long vacation. When talking about bonds, she said something very touching, in fact, buying nothing this year is the most correct thing. It is said that people who are envious of winning by lying down, but in fact, if they really do lying down, they will most likely win. At this time last year, no one could have guessed that hikes is so violent. In the first half of the year, I also felt that T3 could trade around the yield rate of 3.4%, and was educated by the market in the second half of the year.
If you want to say what I bet right this year, it is to desperately expand the proportion and mismatch of RMB assets, and compress the repricing mismatch period of the US dollar to 17 days. Of course, there is no money to make, after all, the price pressure of RMB business is too cruel. As for import and export business denominated in US dollars, few customers are in the upstream of the industry.
Recently heard about processing manufacturers, there is a trend of favoring e-commerce and diss physical stores. Because e-commerce companies mostly place orders based on orders, the estimate is relatively accurate, and the accounting period is mostly about one month, so they are not very good at stolen. The accounting period of physical stores is too long and there is a lot of uncertainty. One store has made a fortune, and it may not be enough to spend several months on the bank.
talks back to the US dollar and RMB. I think it is necessary to think about the value of US dollar asset allocation from more perspectives. If we talk about experience, it should be the time to add US dollar assets. After all, the market is turbulent. Emerging markets may be among the few, except for China, Indonesia , India, Vietnam , etc., which have great pressure on US dollar outflow. As for the United States itself, it may not have expected that so much capital would flow back, which objectively pushed up inflation .
Furthermore, in addition to the US dollar, the United States is still a major resource and agricultural product country in the world. Even if the Food Organization repeatedly warns the world that may face abnormal climate food shortages, it will not affect the United States' continued expansion of the manufacturing and use of biofuels. It seems that 45% of corn in the United States is used as fuel. This gives it a significant cost advantage when bulk and energy prices rise. From a normal deduction, the first step will attract European companies to transfer manufacturing and industrial industries to the United States. For example, Anselmitar first closed two factories in Germany, and then said that the factories in the United States exceeded expectations.
But what worries me is the relationship between the United States and us. Although he kept bleeding Europe, his attitude towards us has become increasingly unfriendly in the past two years. And at least half of the assets of any overseas institution are related to the US dollar. I think it's okay this year and next year, and it may still be good the year after tomorrow, but I just worry that there are too many US dollar assets. One day, I will be controlled by others when the other party turns against me. Sometimes I hesitate to buy some one-year US bond , which is much more conscientious than the yield rate of Chinese financial institutions last month.
. Judging from the current momentum and data, it is estimated that RMB 7.10 is not a high point. In addition to the adjustment factors at the end of the year, the courage to shoot exchange rate may have to be even stronger.
This brings up a problem. All Chinese companies that borrow USD foreign debt , as long as their revenue is mainly in China, must recalculate the cash flow of their repayment. The depreciation of 11% is very stressful to debt. Especially the inner room that is breathing on the ground, you need to talk to the financial department to whether the exchange rate pressure has been fully considered on the repayment of foreign debt.
Maybe, in fact, there is no need to consider it. Anyway, many of them need to be reorganized for a period of time. Mo Da’s money will be paid back this year, and next year, it may not be necessary. If you do not evade debts and pay interest, you can already be considered the advantage of the plan. But the restructuring plan also needs to be calculated with cash flow. 's new accounting standard is not a joke, and it is very sad to be in the bank's backend if it cannot be calculated. This wave of market in September is enough to allow financial consultants to work overtime again and collect another sum of money.
, there is another thing that is not very popular to consider.Local governments are not rich in finance now, and most of them don’t have much left. So why do you think that after domestic real estate companies have sales revenue, they will successfully make money from foreign investors by purchasing foreign exchange, rather than keeping the RMB accounts owed to local governments and related companies in the country first. Not expired? It doesn’t matter. You can get on the account first, or help you with repayment in advance. It’s OK. Banks, trusts, and asset management institutions are all happy to help.
The current yield trend of US bonds and RMB bonds, I think it can continue until the first half of next year, and the pressure is still quite great. Recently, the RMB has compressed spicy noodles while reducing interest rates, which gives the signal a bit distorted. It should be to help banks lower their debt costs in order to provide more support to companies in real needs, and to tell everyone not to think about going overnight to repo every day, as the liquidity between banks will not always be as abundant as in the past.
especially the end of the year is coming soon, and both the exchange rate and interest rate must be an attitude.
