Data released by the U.S. Department of Energy on the 12th showed that U.S. strategic oil reserves fell by more than 8 million barrels to 434 million barrels last week, the lowest level since October 1984.
htmlOn 13, the latest data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year. 8.1% higher than market expectations. Affected by this, the three major indexes of U.S. stocks fell sharply on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq falling 5.16%, the S&P 500 falling 4.33%, and the Dow Jones fell 3.94%, both of which hit the largest single-day decline since June 11, 2020.
Data source: Choice data
US strategic reserve oil hit a new low in the past 40 years
Data released by the US Department of Energy on the 12th showed that the US strategic oil reserves hit the largest single-week decline since May in the week ending September 9, with the reduced crude oil including 6.3 million barrels of low-sulfur crude oil and about 2 million barrels of high-sulfur crude oil. The latest reserves fell to 434 million barrels, the lowest level in nearly 40 years.
Choice data shows that the U.S. strategic oil reserve inventory reached its highest level of 727 million barrels in 2010. On March 31, 2022, in order to cope with the situation of supply shortage and high oil prices, US President Biden announced that it will release 1 million barrels of oil per day from the US strategic oil reserves in the next six months, and a total of 180 million barrels of oil will be released from the US strategic oil reserves. By then, the US strategic oil reserves will drop to 385 million barrels.
Data source: Choice data
A spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Energy later said that after the existing oil reserve release plan ends in October, White House will release 180 million barrels of oil reserves by then, and there will be no consideration for releasing more.
Inflation exceeded expectations, rate hike 100 basis points probability rises
html Since the beginning of the year, geopolitical factors such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have driven a sharp rise in crude oil prices. Although the United States released oil reserves to cope with the shortage of oil supply, international oil prices are still operating at a relatively high level, and global inflation levels are also high.CICC believes that global energy and raw materials are still at a low trough in the capital expenditure cycle. Although commodity prices may face the leading role of downward demand in the future beyond the critical point of supply, tight supply may support the price decline, and inflation stickiness may be strong.
On the 13th local time, the latest data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August rose 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year. In the month, after excluding the volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year.
Data source: Choice data
Nomura Securities Analysts said Tuesday that the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may raise its short-term interest rate target by a full percentage point at next week's September policy meeting, as the risk of upward inflation is becoming increasingly obvious.
According to CME Group data, after the release of CPI, the probability of Federal Reserve hike rate 75 basis points in September rose to nearly 90%, and the market even began to expect that the probability of hiking Federal Reserve hike rate 3100 basis points next week will reach 18%.
US stock market plummeted A shares
Inflation fell less than expected in August, and the market's expectations for the slowdown in the Fed's interest rate hike steps were dashed. The cloud of violent interest rate hikes in September shrouded the global market. On Tuesday, the three major U.S. stock indexes suffered a plunge, with the Nasdaq falling 5.16%, the S&P 500 falling 4.33%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 3.94%, both of which hit the largest single-day decline since June 11, 2020.
On Wednesday, A-share market was also affected. The three major indexes opened low across the board. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.80%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.25%, and the ChiNext fell 1.84%. More than 3,500 stocks in the two markets rose green.
Choice data statistics. As of now, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates four times this year, namely the 25 basis points rate hike on March 17, the 50 basis points rate hike on May 5, the 75 basis points rate hike on June 16, and the 75 basis points rate hike on July 28.
Data source: Choice data
During the first rate hike to the second rate hike, Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.58%; during the second rate hike to the third rate hike, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 7.09%; during the third rate hike to the fourth rate hike, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.09%; until the fourth rate hike, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.39%. It can be seen that the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike policy on A-shares is gradually weakening.
Data source: Choice data
Institutions look at the future market
Choice data shows that the current Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index PE (TTM) is 11.82, lower than the average level of 13 times in the past five years. However, under the perturbation of global macro factors, institutional views are also divided.
CICC: reiterates the view that "stable" and then "progress". It is expected that the weak fundamental recovery elasticity may still bring certain constraints on the market's performance at the index level in the future. However, combined with the valuation of blue chip indexes such as Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, the valuation of blue chip indexes returns to an attractive position, and the risk premium of 300 equity rebounds to around the standard deviation of the historical average upward double standard deviation. There is no need to be too pessimistic about the medium-term trend, and pay more attention to the structural level opportunities.
Industrial Securities : As the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike heats up, overseas markets will still fluctuate and curb domestic risk appetite; the expectations of real estate policy relaxation have been increased in the near future, but it still needs further confirmation and observation; on the capital side, the pace of incremental capital flow into the A-share market has slowed down. Therefore, although we believe that there is no systemic risk in the market in the short term, domestic and foreign macro factors are intertwined, risk preferences are weak, and it is difficult for the market to have a sustainable main style.
China Merchants Securities : Currently, the global economy is in the transition stage from a "stagflation period" to a "recession period". The global over-sustaining monetary policy is about to usher in a turning point. Although this stage seems to be volatile and the market performance is average, great opportunities are also brewing in this environment. Once the global economy officially enters a "recession" and global liquidity is becoming more relaxed, A-shares are prone to index-level opportunities. Therefore, it is an important bottom strategic layout opportunity for A-shares.
This article is derived from Oriental Wealth Choice data
