Main points
The custody scale of the bond market continued to grow in July 2022, with the growth rate declining month-on-month. The decline in net financing of local government bonds in July dragged down the sharp increase in the scale of interest rate bond custody. The scale of interest rate bond custody increased by 455.8 billion yuan month-on-month, a decrease of 1.41 trillion yuan from June. The increase in maturity amount led to a decrease in net financing of credit bonds, and credit bond custody The scale increased by 102.3 billion yuan month-on-month, a decrease of 133.8 billion yuan from June; net financing of interbank certificates of deposit was negative in July, and the custody scale decreased by 293.2 billion yuan month-on-month.
htmlThe debt allocation behavior of institutions in July was obviously divided: broad funds were the main force in increasing their holdings in July, while the momentum of other types of institutions' debt allocation weakened. Affected by the sharp reduction in the supply of local government bonds, commercial banks overall reduced their allocation of bonds in July, only slightly increasing their holdings of government bonds and local bonds, and reducing their holdings of other types of bonds; insurance institutions continued to increase their allocation of bonds, but the increase was halved month-on-month, mainly increasing their holdings Local government bonds and treasury bonds slightly increased their holdings of corporate bonds, with the increase in Chinese bond holdings hitting a new high this year; securities company bond allocations appeared for the fourth time this year Monthly net reduction in holdings, comprehensively reducing holdings of other types of bonds except local government bonds; the scale of general fund bond holdings continued to increase, becoming the only entity in the market that increased the size of bond allocation month-on-month, comprehensively increasing holdings of interest rate bonds and credit bonds, and slightly reducing holdings Interbank certificates of deposit; the inversion of the interest rate spread between China and the United States narrowed in July, the scale of reductions in holdings by overseas institutions narrowed significantly month-on-month, and they slightly increased their holdings of government bonds.
Looking forward to the market outlook, in terms of supply, the Political Bureau meeting in July proposed "supporting local governments to make full use of special debt limits." New supply of special debt may be increased in the second half of the year. At the same time, quasi-fiscal efforts will be made, and the net financing scale of government-financial bonds will also be increase, but the pressure on the supply of interest rate bonds will still be less than that in the first half of the year; with the advancement of credit easing, industrial bond issuance will remain high, and real estate bond financing is also expected to continue to pick up with policy support, but it will still be mainly concentrated in state-owned enterprises A leader in high-quality private enterprises supported by real estate companies and policies; at the same time, with the steady growth of infrastructure and the acceleration of urban investment bond financing environment, the financing environment for urban investment bonds has improved marginally. However, under the background of strictly prohibiting new local government implicit debts, financing supervision is still strict. It is expected that urban investment bonds will be in the second half of the year. Net financing will still be in a contraction range year-on-year; the issuance and net financing scale of interbank certificates of deposit in the first seven months of this year were significantly lower than the same period last year, and the issuance interest rate of interbank certificates of deposit was significantly lower than the policy interest rate, indicating that the overall liquidity is sufficient and the credit demand is weak on the bank's liability side Less stressful. Looking ahead, it may be difficult to see a significant increase in the net supply of interbank certificates of deposit until credit demand picks up significantly.
In terms of demand, local government bonds are issued this year. Commercial banks increased their holdings of interest rate bonds in the first seven months to 4.79 trillion yuan, accounting for 89% and 75% of the annual allocation of interest rate bonds by commercial banks in 2021 and 2020. , if the supply of new local government special bonds is increased in the second half of the year, it may squeeze the space for banks to allocate other bonds; under the background of non-standard pressure drops and continued adjustments to the equity market, the proportion of insurance fund bond investment will increase, and the scale of bond market allocation is expected to be maintained Maintain stable growth, but the reduction in the supply of interest rate bonds in the second half of the year may bring about the pressure of asset shortage; considering that the internal and external environment of the economic operation in the second half of the year still faces a series of uncertain and unstable factors, it is difficult for the market risk appetite to rebound significantly, and the issuance of wealth management products Scale will keep growing , the scale of bond allocation by broad-based funds is expected to remain high; the inversion of interest rate differentials between China and the United States widened again in August, and the trend of net foreign capital outflows from the domestic bond market may continue. However, the new weight of SDR officially comes into effect in August, which will lead to increased allocation of treasury bonds by overseas central banks. Or form a certain hedge against the outflow of foreign capital.
1. The custody scale of the bond market continued to increase slightly in July 2022. The custody scale of interest rate bonds and credit bonds increased month-on-month, but the increase narrowed; the custody scale of other bond types all decreased month-on-month.
htmlThe custody scale of the bond market continued to increase slightly in July . As of the end of July, the bond custody volumes in the inter-bank market (ChinaBond + SHCH) and exchanges (Shanghai Stock Exchange + Shenzhen Stock Exchange) were 124.24 trillion yuan and 18.80 trillion yuan respectively, up 0.10% and 0.93% respectively from the previous month1.In terms of bond types, the current month’s interest rate bonds and non-financial corporate credit bonds (hereinafter referred to as “credit bonds”) include short-term financing, ultra-short-term financing, medium-term notes, directional instruments, corporate bonds, general corporate bonds on exchanges, and private placement bonds. ) Custody scale increased month-on-month, and interbank deposits The custody scale of single and commercial bank bonds and asset-backed securities both decreased month-on-month: the custody scale of interest rate bonds at the end of the month was 78.21 trillion yuan, an increase of 455.8 billion yuan from the end of the previous month. The issuance of local government special bonds was basically completed at the end of June, and the net local government debt in July Financing The impact was significantly narrowed. The scale of interest rate bond custody in July increased by 1.41 trillion yuan from the previous month; the scale of credit bond custody increased by 102.3 billion yuan from the end of the previous month to 29.33 trillion yuan, a decrease of 133.8 billion yuan from the previous month; the custody volume of interbank certificates of deposit was 14.37 trillion yuan. Yuan , a decrease of 293.2 billion yuan from the end of last month; the scale of commercial bank debt custody was 7.38 trillion yuan, a decrease of 73.7 billion yuan from the end of last month; the scale of asset-backed securities custody was 4.35 trillion yuan, a decrease of 28.4 billion yuan from the end of last month, which was the fourth consecutive Monthly decrease.
As the new special bond quota for project construction in 2022 has basically been issued before the end of June, the net financing scale of local debt fell sharply in July, dragging down the increase in the scale of interest rate bond custody to shrink significantly compared with June At the end of July, the amount of national debt, local government debt and government-financial debt in custody was 23.47 trillion yuan, 34.47 trillion yuan and 20.26 trillion yuan respectively, an increase of 270.7 billion yuan, 1290 trillion yuan and 56 billion yuan respectively from the end of the previous month. Among them, the national debt was 23.47 trillion yuan, 34.47 trillion yuan and 20.26 trillion yuan respectively. There was an increase of 65.4 billion yuan, while local government debt and government-financial debt increased by 1.29 trillion yuan and 194.8 billion yuan respectively compared with the previous month. Looking forward to the future, after the peak of local government bond issuance, the "off-peak issuance" of government bonds will accelerate. At the same time, policy finance will step up and issue financial bonds to raise 300 billion yuan to supplement the capital of major projects or bridge the capital of special bond projects. , and at the same time increased the credit line by 800 billion yuan to support infrastructure construction; this In addition, the Politburo meeting in July proposed "supporting local governments to make full use of special debt quotas." As of the end of June, there was still about 1.5 trillion special debt quotas unused. New supply of special debts may be increased in the second half of the year, and it is expected that after August The supply of interest rate bonds will recover, but supply pressure will still be significantly smaller than in the first half of the year.
Affected by the large increase in issue volume, the net financing of credit bonds dropped sharply in July, and the custody increase of all bond types fell . At the end of July, the custody scale of mid-term notes, general corporate bonds, and private placement bonds was the highest, reaching 8.60 trillion yuan and 6.93 trillion yuan respectively. trillion yuan and 5.70 trillion yuan, respectively Increases of 52.4 billion yuan, 36.8 billion yuan and 24.1 billion yuan compared with the end of June, a decrease of 75.1 billion yuan, 23.7 billion yuan and 14.6 billion yuan respectively from the previous month; the custody scale of corporate bonds, directional instruments, ultra-short-term financing and short-term financing They were 2.82 trillion yuan, 2.45 trillion yuan, 2.23 trillion yuan and 611 billion yuan respectively, representing changes of +6.7 billion yuan, -11.2 billion yuan, +5.1 billion yuan and -11.5 billion yuan respectively from the end of June. The scale of credit bond custody increased by 102.4 billion yuan that month, a decrease of 133.8 billion yuan from the previous month.
2. In July 2022, except for securities firms and overseas institutions, other institutions increased their holdings of interest rate bonds, but the institutional behavior was somewhat differentiated: Affected by the sharp decline in net financing of local government bonds, the scale of commercial banks' increase in interest rate bond holdings narrowed significantly. , The increase in interest rate bond holdings by insurance companies has also declined, and the increase in holdings of broad-based funds has increased significantly month-on-month; the inversion of interest rates between China and the United States has narrowed, and the scale of reductions in interest-rate bonds held by overseas institutions has significantly shrunk; the net supply of credit bonds decreased in July, with only broad-based funds Funds increased their holdings of credit bonds, while other institutions reduced their holdings; in July, the net supply of interbank certificates of deposit turned negative, and all institutions reduced their holdings of interbank certificates of deposit.
htmlThe net supply of interest rate bonds dropped sharply in July. Commercial banks increased their holdings of interest rate bonds significantly less than the previous month, and general funds increased their holdings significantly. Due to the sharp decline in net financing of local debt in July, commercial banks, as the main undertaking of local debt, only increased their holdings of interest rate bonds by 43.8 billion yuan that month, a decrease of 1.69 trillion yuan from the previous month. Among non-bank institutions, insurance institutions continued to increase their holdings of interest rate bonds by 40.6 billion yuan in July, a decrease of 26.9 billion yuan from the previous month; general funds increased their holdings of interest rate bonds by 364.3 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 339.8 billion yuan from the previous month, a single-month increase. The scale of holdings hit a new high since 2021; securities companies continue to In June, the increase in interest rate bond holdings was reduced and then turned into reduction. In July, the interest rate bond holdings were reduced by a total of 25 billion yuan; in July, the inversion of the interest rate gap between China and the United States narrowed significantly, and the scale of overseas capital reductions was significantly reduced. A total of interest rate bond holdings were reduced in that month. Debt holdings were 19.3 billion yuan, and the scale of reductions was 72.1 billion yuan less than in June.
html The net supply of credit bonds in July dropped significantly compared with June. Only broad-based funds increased their holdings of credit bonds, while other institutions reduced their holdings.. The allocation momentum of generalized funds has been strong since the beginning of the year. In July, it increased its holdings of credit bonds by 218.6 billion yuan, an increase of 71.9 billion yuan from June. In July, commercial banks and insurance institutions reduced their holdings of credit bonds by 85.2 billion yuan and 3.6 billion yuan respectively. The scale of bank holdings increased from positive to negative, and insurance institutions for the first time this year Reduce holdings of credit bonds; securities companies reduced their holdings of credit bonds for the fourth consecutive month, reducing their holdings of credit bonds by 33.9 billion yuan that month, an increase of 15.1 billion yuan from June; overseas institutions reduced their holdings of credit bonds for the eighth consecutive month, Credit bond holdings were reduced by 7.7 billion yuan that month, and the scale of reduction increased by 2.6 billion yuan compared with June.
html In July, the issuance of interbank certificates of deposit decreased and the maturity amount increased. Net financing turned negative. All types of institutional investors reduced their holdings of certificates of deposit.. Among them, commercial banks have the largest reduction in holdings. In July, the reduction reached 270.4 billion yuan. The scale of reduction in a single month hit a new high since 2021. Commercial banks have reduced their holdings of interbank certificates of deposit for 4 consecutive months. Other institutions also reduced their holdings of certificates of deposit. Insurance institutions, securities companies, broad funds and overseas institutions reduced their holdings by 150 million yuan, 7.4 billion yuan, 5 billion yuan and 18.3 billion yuan respectively in July. All institutions have reduced their holdings of certificates of deposit. In addition to the negative net supply of certificates of deposit, the decline in investment performance-price ratio may be the main reason: the interest rate for the issuance of certificates of deposit continued to decline in July. By the end of July, the interest rate for the issuance of 1-year joint-stock bank inter-bank certificates of deposit had dropped to 2.13%, compared with It dropped by nearly 50bps at the end of March.
3. Institutional behavior: In July 2022, commercial banks reduced their holdings of bonds as a whole, and only increased their holdings of government bonds and local bonds and the increase was significantly smaller than the previous month. All other bond types were reduced; insurance institutions continued to increase their allocation of bonds, but the allocation scale It decreased month-on-month, mainly increasing its holdings of local bonds and treasury bonds, with the scale of Chinese bond holdings reaching a new high for the year; the scale of bond holdings of broad fund bonds continued to rise, with an overall increase in interest rate bonds and credit bonds, and a slight reduction in interbank certificates of deposit, becoming the main force in increasing holdings in the market. ; Securities companies once again reduced their holdings of bonds, comprehensively reducing their holdings of other types of bonds except local bonds; overseas institutions significantly narrowed their holdings, and slightly increased their holdings of government bonds.
htmlThe scale of commercial banks' bond allocations turned negative in July. They only increased their holdings of government bonds and local government bonds, while reducing their holdings of other bonds.. Commercial banks reduced their holdings of interest rate bonds, interbank market credit bonds and interbank certificates of deposit by a total of 311.9 billion yuan in July. Historically, commercial banks have only experienced net reductions of a similar scale in December 2020. The main reason may be that in June, The scale of bank bond allocation and new credit increased, which increased the allocation space for overdrafts in July. At the same time, the supply of major bond types, especially local bonds, decreased significantly. Broken down by bond type, commercial banks increased their holdings of government bonds and local government bonds by 113.1 billion yuan and 45.4 billion yuan respectively in July, a decrease of 177.7 billion yuan and 1.18 trillion yuan respectively from the previous month. At the same time, they reduced their holdings of government bonds by 114.8 billion yuan. In July, commercial banks' main credit bond custody scale decreased by 85.2 billion yuan, mainly reducing their holdings of (super) short-term financing (40.3 billion yuan), medium-term notes (23.1 billion yuan) and directional instruments (10.6 billion yuan); commercial banks reduced their holdings in July Interbank certificates of deposit amounted to 270.4 billion yuan, marking the fourth consecutive month of reduction, with the scale of reduction increasing by 161.6 billion yuan compared with June.
htmlIn July, the bond allocation scale of insurance institutions dropped from the previous month. In the month, a total of 36.8 billion yuan was added to the holdings of interest rate bonds, interbank deposit certificates and major credit bonds, a decrease of 37.2 billion yuan from the previous month.. Among them, the holdings of interest rate bonds increased by 40.6 billion yuan, and the holdings of interbank certificates of deposit and credit bonds were reduced by 200 million yuan and 3.7 billion yuan respectively. In terms of bond types, the types of bonds with the largest increase in holdings by insurance institutions that month were local bonds (30 billion yuan) and treasury bonds (13.7 billion yuan), with the increase in Chinese bond holdings hitting a new high for the year. In addition, it also slightly increased its holdings of corporate bonds (500 million yuan) and reduced its holdings of other types of bonds. Against the background of non-standard pressure drops and large stock market adjustments, insurance institutions have had strong motivation to allocate bonds to the bond market since the beginning of the year. The scale of bond allocation dropped in July, and the reduction of credit bond holdings for the first time this year was mainly due to the reduction in supply and the continuous compression of credit spreads. Related to the decline in the cost performance of credit bonds.
html In July, the bond allocation of securities companies once again shifted to a net reduction in holdings. In that month, a total of 66.3 billion yuan was reduced in interest rate bonds, interbank deposit certificates and major credit bonds, which was the fourth month of net reduction in holdings in the year..In that month, securities companies only increased their holdings of local bonds by 4.4 billion yuan, while all other types of bonds were reduced. Among them, the largest reductions were treasury bonds (15.4 billion yuan), government-financial bonds (13.9 billion yuan) and corporate bonds (12.9 billion yuan). , other bond types also decreased slightly. Since the beginning of the year, the bond allocation behavior of securities companies has fluctuated greatly. Except for March, May and June, the other four months have been net reductions. The momentum of bond allocation by securities companies has been weakening in the past three months, reflecting a certain wait-and-see attitude. manner.
html In July, the momentum of general fund bond allotment continued to rise, becoming the absolute main force in increasing holdings in the bond market. . At the end of July, the sum of the custody volume of broad fund interest rate bonds, major credit bonds and interbank certificates of deposit increased by 578 billion yuan compared with the end of the previous month, an increase from the previous month. 146.3 billion yuan, the only entity whose bond allocation increased month-on-month in July. In terms of bond types, the custody scale of broad fund interest rate bonds at the end of July increased by 364.3 billion yuan from the end of the previous month, an increase of 339.9 billion yuan from the previous month, of which the holdings of treasury bonds, local bonds and government financial bonds increased by 105.1 billion yuan, 25.2 billion yuan and 233.9 billion yuan respectively. Yuan; the scale of major credit bonds held by broad-based funds at the end of July increased compared with the end of June An increase of 218.6 billion yuan, an increase of 71.9 billion yuan from the previous month, mainly increased holdings of medium-term notes (87.2 billion yuan), private placement bonds (45.9 billion yuan), (super) short-term financing (45.3 billion yuan) and general corporate bonds (41.7 billion yuan) , slightly reduced its holdings of corporate bonds and directional instruments; in July, general funds slightly reduced their holdings of interbank certificates of deposit by 5 billion yuan.
html In July, general funds continued to significantly increase their allocation of bonds, mainly for two reasons: on the one hand, the number of newly issued financial products increased in June, and fell back in July but were still at a high level, with new financial funds entering the bond market; on the other hand, Funding interest rates continue to fall, and leverage strategy returns are better, which is also one of the important reasons for promoting charity funds to increase their allocation of bonds.
html In July, the scale of overseas institutions' reduction in domestic bond holdings dropped significantly, and Chinese bonds returned to a net increase in their holdings. . At the end of July, the total custody scale of overseas institutions' interest rate bonds, interbank deposit certificates and major credit bonds fell by 45.4 billion yuan from the end of the previous month, and the decline was greater than that in June. It narrowed by 42.2 billion yuan, narrowing for the second consecutive month. Among them, the scale of interest rate bond reductions has significantly narrowed, the scale of credit bond reductions has expanded, and interbank certificates of deposits have turned from a net increase in holdings in June to a net reduction. Among interest rate bonds, overseas institutions increased their holdings of government bonds slightly in July (3.3 billion yuan), and reduced their holdings of local bonds and government bonds by 230 million yuan and 22.4 billion yuan respectively. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell sharply in July, and the inversion in interest rates between China and the U.S. narrowed significantly and even turned positive for a time. Foreign investors increased their holdings slightly after significantly reducing their holdings of Treasury bonds by a total of nearly 200 billion yuan for five consecutive months. At the same time, in July The extent of reduction of foreign capital's holdings of government financial bonds also narrowed significantly month-on-month (reducing holdings of 35.5 billion yuan in June). In terms of credit bonds, foreign investors reduced their holdings of major credit bonds by a total of 7.7 billion yuan in July, an increase of 2.6 billion yuan from June. Among them, the main types of bonds reduced were medium-term notes (7.1 billion yuan), and other types of bonds also decreased slightly. , only slightly increased its holdings of short-term financing (210 million yuan). Overall, the intensity of foreign capital's allocation to the domestic bond market is highly correlated with the interest rate differential between China and the United States. After the domestic policy interest rate was cut in August, the inversion of the interest rate gap between China and the United States expanded again, and the momentum of foreign capital's allocation to the domestic bond market may be disrupted again. However, as the new Special Drawing Rights (SDR) currency basket officially came into effect on August 1, the weight of the RMB was raised from 10.92% to 12.28%, prompting foreign central banks to further increase their holdings of RMB assets. A small net increase in foreign capital's holdings of government bonds in July may also be Act early for foreign central banks. The increase in the allocation of treasury bonds by foreign central banks will provide a certain hedge against the outflow of foreign capital caused by the inversion of interest rates between China and the United States. It is expected that the scale of foreign capital outflow will not repeat the monthly net outflow of more than 100 billion yuan from March to May this year.
4. In July 2022, the daily average value of pledged repurchase transactions continued to hit a record high, and the institutional leverage ratio maintained an upward trend.
7 The funding interest rate continued to be lower than the policy interest rate and continued to decline, and institutions continued to increase leverage. The daily average value of pledged repos in the inter-bank market rose to a record high of 6.26 trillion yuan, a further increase of 282.5 billion yuan from the previous month. Overnight transactions accounted for 89%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. The institutional leverage ratio maintained an upward trend in July, with the daily average leverage ratio of 108.7%, continuing to increase by 0.1% from June.
Looking forward to the market outlook, in terms of supply, the Politburo meeting in July proposed "supporting local governments to make full use of special debt limits." New supply of special debt may be increased in the second half of the year. At the same time, quasi-fiscal efforts will be made, and the net financing scale of government-financial bonds will also be increase, but the pressure on the supply of interest rate bonds will still be less than that in the first half of the year; with the advancement of credit easing, industrial bond issuance will remain high, and real estate bond financing will also increase with policy support It is expected that the situation will continue to improve, but it will still mainly focus on state-owned real estate enterprises and high-quality private enterprise leaders with policy support; at the same time, as the steady growth of infrastructure accelerates, the urban investment bond financing environment has improved marginally, but it is strictly prohibited to increase the hidden debt background of local governments. Financing supervision is still strict, and it is expected that in the second half of the year Net financing of investment bonds will still be in a contraction range year-on-year; the issuance and net financing scale of interbank certificates of deposit in the first seven months of this year were significantly lower than the same period last year, and the issuance interest rate of interbank certificates of deposit was significantly lower than the policy interest rate, indicating that banks have generally sufficient liquidity and weak credit demand The pressure on the liability side is lighter. Looking ahead, it may be difficult to see a significant increase in the net supply of interbank certificates of deposit until credit demand picks up significantly.
In terms of demand, local government bonds are issued this year. Commercial banks increased their holdings of interest rate bonds in the first seven months to 4.79 trillion yuan, accounting for 89% and 75% of the annual allocation of interest rate bonds by commercial banks in 2021 and 2020. , if the supply of new local government special bonds is increased in the second half of the year, it may squeeze the space for banks to allocate other bonds; under the background of non-standard pressure drops and continued adjustments to the equity market, the proportion of insurance fund bond investment will increase, and the scale of bond market allocation is expected to be maintained Maintain stable growth, but the reduction in the supply of interest rate bonds in the second half of the year may bring about the pressure of asset shortage; considering that the internal and external environment of the economic operation in the second half of the year still faces a series of uncertain and unstable factors, it is difficult for the market risk appetite to rebound significantly, and the issuance of wealth management products Scale will keep growing , the scale of bond allocation by broad-based funds is expected to remain high; the inversion of interest rate differentials between China and the United States widened again in August, and the trend of net foreign capital outflows from the domestic bond market may continue. However, the new weight of SDR officially comes into effect in August, which will lead to increased allocation of treasury bonds by overseas central banks. Or form a certain hedge against the outflow of foreign capital.
1 Since the exchange’s treasury bonds, local government bonds, corporate bonds and other bonds were transferred to ChinaBond, the two parts of the custody bonds overlapped to a certain extent.
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