1. Strategic view of the market
Market overview : The market fluctuated lower throughout the day, with all three major indexes falling by more than 1%. On the market, the automotive industry chain stock was once active in early trading, with the direction of integrated die-casting rising sharply, and many stocks hitting their daily limit. The sub-new stock sector was strong, with both the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the GEM sub-new stocks performing actively. On the downside, infrastructure and real estate stocks were sluggish throughout the day, dragging down the index. Although the index is sluggish, the listed stocks are active. Yesterday, 8 of the 14 listed stocks were promoted to the daily limit, with a success rate of over 50%. Generally speaking, individual stocks fell more than they rose. Over 3,600 stocks in the two cities fell, and more than 50 stocks fell by more than 9%. The money-losing effect of the market increased significantly. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 1.0881 billion, which was 60.2 billion higher than the previous trading day. In terms of sectors, sectors such as integrated die-casting, tourism, registration system innovation, and consumer electronics were among the top gainers, while real estate development, prefabricated construction , debt-for-equity swaps, kitchen and bathroom appliances and other sectors were among the top decliners. As of the close, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 1.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.52%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.08%. Northbound funds sold net 8.931 billion yuan throughout the day; of which and Shanghai Stock Connect had net sales of 6.59 billion yuan and Shenzhen Stock Connect net sales of 2.34 billion yuan.
disk analysis :
Many major economic data were released on Friday. Let’s pick a few of the more important ones and briefly interpret them.
National Bureau of Statistics released data, GDP in the first half of the year increased by 2.5% year-on-year. Among them, GDP increased by 0.4% year-on-year in the second quarter. This data is generally good. Due to the impact of the epidemic, Shanghai's economic activities almost stagnated in April. Many people expected GDP to be negative in the second quarter, but the actual situation is not bad.
Then in June, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.8742 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles were 3,419.2 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8%. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 21,043.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%. Among them, retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles were 18,925.1 billion yuan, down 0.1%. Overall, the contribution of automobiles to consumption data exceeds expectations, so the automobile sector performed relatively strongly today.
After the release of unexpected social financing and economic data this week, the market did not rise but fell today, reflecting the market's concerns about the sustainability of improving social financing. At the same time, the impact of recurring epidemics, rural banks, and supply disruptions was mixed in. . There are two other real-time influencing factors: Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell sharply today, and the RMB exchange rate fell and during the session.
Supply cuts have become the core factor that suppresses confidence in the short term, and real estate, banking and finance have been significantly affected. The suspension of supply is the epitome of the economic downturn, and it is also a helpless rights protection move by investors after the real estate companies were hit by thunder. It reflects that the current bottom of the real estate industry has not yet come, and the cash flow of real estate companies has not yet recovered. At the industry level, the reason behind the supply cutoff is that after the regulatory environment tightened, the high-leverage + fast turnover model of real estate companies failed and the capital chain broke, which led to the unfinished development of real estate projects. House buyers had no choice but to cut off the supply as a means to protect their rights.
However, we are pessimistic about the market. Under the unswerving requirement of "strive to achieve the expected economic and social development goals for the whole year", the periodic adjustment factors will be difficult to further expand the impact. The visible hand of the government will be proactive and protect the economy to overcome difficulties. .
htmlThe Politburo meeting to be held at the end of July is likely to further strengthen the goal of stabilizing economic growth, encourage all departments and local governments to implement stabilizing growth policies, and accelerate economic recovery. As late July approaches, we expect the market to shift from trading "weak reality" to trading "strong policy expectations". After full play of market funds, market conditions will gradually pick up.
predicts that market sentiment will calm down next week, and the market will also usher in opportunities to buy low after stabilizing. Priority is given to new energy in the low-end direction, because this direction currently has the most funds and is the most popular. However, you must look for a trend that is good but shows no obvious signs of acceleration, and do not chase higher.
Recently, many investors have been curious as to why some companies have fallen when their performance forecasts are good, and why some companies have risen when their performance forecasts are bad.This is because the logic of performance hype is not clear enough. In fact, funds are used to predict future performance. The current performance only represents the past. Only when the future is better will the stock price strengthen. For example, Important news: The National Bureau of Statistics released data. According to preliminary calculations, the GDP in the first half of the year was 56.2642 billion yuan. Calculated at constant price , the year-on-year growth was 2.5%. Among them, the GDP in the second quarter was 29,246.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. 2. National Bureau of Statistics: The total retail sales of consumer goods in June was 3,874.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods in June was 3,874.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles were 3,419.2 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8%. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 21,043.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%. Among them, retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles were 18,925.1 billion yuan, down 0.1%. 3. National Bureau of Statistics: In June, the added value of industries above designated size actually increased by 3.9% year-on-year. Financial News Agency, July 15. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in June, the added value of industries above designated size actually increased by 3.9% year-on-year. From a month-on-month perspective, in June, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 0.84% compared with the previous month. From January to June, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 3.4% year-on-year. 2. Sector Outlook: Many companies have released performance forecasts, and the high prosperity of the military industry has been verified again.
has performed poorly in the past, but it will be repaired and the dilemma will be reversed in the future. Also, the performance is very good now and will be even better in the future. And the original performance expectations were not high, but it was revealed that it exceeded expectations. Research found that the company's business is progressing very well, or the technology has made breakthroughs and orders have increased significantly, etc., which means we are ushering in new growth points. Only when these conditions are met will prices rise. The stock market is all about expectations and the future, not the past or the present. Everyone must understand this.
1. China's semi-annual economic report: GDP increased by 2.5% year-on-year
. Many listed companies in the military industry sector have released performance forecasts for the first half of the year, and their performance has been impressive.
AVIC Heavy Machinery is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 540-580 million yuan in 2022H1, a year-on-year increase of 99.94%-114.75%; Zhongbing Hongjian is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 665-715 million yuan in 2022H1, a year-on-year increase of 103.41%-118.71% ; Zhenhua Technology is expected to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.180-1.330 billion yuan in 2022H1, a year-on-year increase of 128.96%-158.06%. AVIC Heavy Machinery, Zhongbing Hongjian, and Zhenhua Technology belong to the aviation equipment, ground military equipment and military electronics sectors of Shenwan National Defense and Military Industry's secondary industry. The sectors represent the company's doubling of profits, verifying that the military industry sector as a whole is in a high-prosperity situation Road, continued growth can be expected in the future. The will of the country and the support of military expenditure combined with the improvement of corporate efficiency have made the logic of the rapid rebound of the military industry sector clear.
. The rapid rebound of the military industry sector lies in the high certainty of the growth of the sector.. The industrial chain boom is expanding in an orderly manner, and the value of sector allocation is highlighted.
From the perspective of national will, our country has set the goal of achieving the 100th anniversary of the founding of the army by 2027, basically realizing the modernization of national defense and the army by 2035, and fully building a world-class army by the middle of this century China's new "three-step" strategy for national defense and military modernization. In order to achieve this strategy, naval, land and air weapons and equipment will be updated at an accelerated pace, and the numerical gap with the US military will gradually narrow. From the perspective of defense equipment investment, my country's defense expenditure has been growing in recent years, and the growth rate has exceeded the GDP growth rate. In addition, due to the reduction in the number of troops after disarmament, the proportion of defense expenditure in equipment expenses has increased, and the growth rate of equipment expenses may exceed that of military expenditures. growth rate. From the perspective of operating efficiency, the military industry continues to promote reform measures such as "asset injection into listed companies" and "equity incentives" to promote resource integration and improve corporate operating efficiency. The profitability of listed companies in the military industry continues to improve. In 2021, the total revenue and profits of listed companies in the military industry increased by 13.31% and 25.66% respectively year-on-year; in 2022Q1, total revenue and profits increased by 12.75% and 15.77% respectively year-on-year.
The military industry sector has experienced a sharp correction since 2022 under the influence of market sentiment and other factors. After this round of rebound, the China Securities Military Industry Index has fallen by 18% this year.The logic of industry boom expansion remains unchanged. The advance receipts of downstream companies have verified the landing of large orders, which will be transmitted in an orderly manner along the industrial chain to the upstream and midstream. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, there is strong certainty that demand from supporting companies will increase. The valuation of the CSI Military Industry Index is 57.5 times, which is at the 16.9% percentile of historical PE. We continue to be optimistic about the value of sector allocation at the current position.
The above represent personal opinions for reference only and do not constitute a basis for buying and selling. Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market!
