Global e-commerce giant Amazon said on Thursday that its members purchased more than 300 million items during this year's Prime Day event, totaling $11.9 billion, making it the largest Prime Day event in the company's history.

The so-called "bullwhip effect" refers to a phenomenon of demand variation amplification in the supply chain, which makes it impossible to effectively share information when the information flow is transmitted from the final client to the original supplier, causing the information to be distorted and amplified step by step. This leads to greater and greater fluctuations in demand information. The amplification effect of this information distortion is graphically similar to a whipped bullwhip, so it is vividly called the bullwhip effect.

Previously, when American consumers were immersed in the "unprecedented" discount season, when those in-demand products during the supply chain chaos were arbitrarily selected, correspondingly, American retailers were facing the worst crisis since the collapse of the Internet bubble A serious "inventory crisis".

Wall Street News An earlier article mentioned that the "bullwhip effect" in the U.S. retail industry is coming to an end. Excessive inventory is forcing U.S. importers to reduce overseas orders, thereby driving down shipping costs, which may ultimately lead to a decline in the freight industry. Retail giants Target and Walmart pointed out that total U.S. consumer goods imports fell by about $1.5 billion in May, indicating that demand for overseas products is declining and consumer spending on durable goods has dropped significantly.

According to the "Big Short Prototype" Michael Burry, the previous oversupply in the retail industry formed a "bullwhip effect". As demand slows down, the "bullwhip effect" comes to an end and will trigger later this year. deflation prompted the Federal Reserve to reverse the path of tightening and even restart easing.

In addition, Bank of America Economist Aditya Bhave previously analyzed spending data on the Independence Day holiday in early July. As measured by credit and debit cards aggregated by BAC, in the two weeks ending July 9, only one There was a slight "holiday impact", with a year-on-year increase of 3.5%.

Considering that the inflation rate in the United States is currently as high as 9.1%, the "holiday impact" on spending this year is smaller than in the previous three years.

Bank of America’s previous view was that actual economic activity is slowing down, and the United States will start a mild recession in the second half of 2022. It lowered the year-end S&P 500 index target point from the previous 4,500 points to 3,600 points, while also The Fed's QT is predicted to end sooner than expected.

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