China Fund News Trainee Reporter Wen Xi
The 200 billion lithium industry giant has just been listed in Hong Kong, and has shown its results in the first half of the year.
html On the morning of 014, Tianqi Lithium (002466, 9696.HK) AH shares released performance forecasts for the first half of the year. Tianqi Lithium’s net profit in the first half of the year ranged from 9.6 billion yuan to 11.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 111 times to 134 times; net profit after non-deduction was 8.46 billion yuan to 10.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 436 times to 535 times.The lithium industry giant, which has ushered in a bright moment in terms of performance, has not let the market buy it. In the secondary market, the entire lithium industry sector has corrected in recent days after rising for more than two consecutive months. At midday closing today, Tianqi Lithium's H shares fell 2.32% to HK$80.1, lower than the issue price; A shares once fell by more than 4%. As of the time of writing, its A shares fell by 1.02% and H shares fell by 1.71%.
Performance growth has long been expected.
The performance has shown huge growth. Tianqi Lithium Industry said that it first benefited from the increase in the global new energy vehicle boom, lithium-ion battery manufacturers accelerating production capacity expansion, and the recovery of downstream cathode material orders. Affected by positive factors, the sales volume and average sales price of the company's main lithium products in the first half of the year increased significantly compared with the same period last year.
The price of lithium products this year has continued from last year, and still maintains a rising trend. Tianqi Lithium Industry, which has rich source lithium ore and lithium salt lake resources, has the say in the industry. The spot price once exceeded 500,000 yuan/ton, nearly 10 times that of the same period last year. Although it has fallen slightly, it is still stable above 45 yuan.
In terms of production capacity, Tianqi Lithium is accelerating the expansion of lithium concentrate production. The Greenbush Mineral Chemical Grade Lithium Concentrate Phase III expansion project owned by its holding subsidiary Talison is expected to be completed in 2025. After the project is fully completed and put into operation, Greenbush's lithium concentrate production capacity is expected to reach 2.1 million tons/year.
In addition, Greenbush's tailings reprocessing plant has been completed in early 2022 and is currently being debugged. After debugging is completed, it is expected to add approximately 280,000 tons of spodumene concentrate per year. At the same time, the company plans to restart the development and production of Cuola lithium mine in Yajiang County, Garze Prefecture, Sichuan.
In addition to its main business, SES Holdings Pte. Ltd, in which Tianqi Lithium has a stake, is listed on the New York Stock Exchange . Therefore, the recognition of long-term equity investments is terminated and recognized as a financial asset included in other comprehensive income at fair value , and recognize investment income.
In addition, it used information such as earnings per share for the second quarter of 2022 predicted by foreign institutions for the associate company SQM to calculate the company's investment income in SQM during the same period. SQM's 2022 interim results are expected to increase significantly year-on-year, so the associate was confirmed during the reporting period The company's investment income increased significantly compared with the same period last year.
In fact, Tianqi Lithium’s high performance growth has long been expected. In the first quarter of this year, Tianqi Lithium achieved a net profit of 3.3 billion yuan, turning a loss into a profit year-on-year. The single-quarter profit exceeded last year's full year by 1.5 times. In addition, it was disclosed in May this year that SQM achieved a net profit of US$796.1 million in the first quarter of this year, equivalent to approximately 5.376 billion yuan. It is expected that Tianqi Lithium's net profit in the first half of this year and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will increase by approximately 6.2%. billion yuan.
The emotional game in the secondary market is obvious
However, in the secondary market, capital does not seem to buy into Tianqi Lithium's high performance growth.
After today's opening , Tianqi Lithium A shares opened lower, with an opening price of 128.5 yuan per share, and the highest intraday drop of more than 4.6%.
The competition for its H-share stock price is even more intense. The stock price of Tianqi Lithium, which has just landed on the Stock Exchange, fluctuated violently during the pre-market period on the first trading day. It once fell by more than 17%, and the final opening price was HK$74.5. That's a break. The final closing price was HK$82, and the offering price of its H shares was HK$82 per share, the upper limit of the offering price range. Today, Hong Kong stock continued its decline, falling to HK$77.15 after opening in early trading. As of the time of writing, its share price was HK$80.6.
Why doesn’t the market buy the high performance of Tianqi Lithium? Why doesn’t the market buy it?
From the perspective of industry fundamentals, as a cyclical industry, Tianqi Lithium also experienced a period of downturn in the lithium industry and low product prices from 2019 to 2020. However, since last year, the price of lithium products has been rising and has now At a historical high, when prices will reach a turning point has attracted much attention in the industry and will also greatly affect Tianqi Lithium's performance.
On the news front, Xu Xiang’s wife Yingying posted a comment on her personal WeChat public account on the 10th, believing that “Tianqi Lithium’s Davis Double Click has reached its peak and the price has been overvalued. On July 11, Tianqi Lithium The industry hit the limit and fell, and the total market value evaporated by more than 21.8 billion yuan in half a day.
However, as the price of lithium continues to rise, Tianqi Lithium's stock price is indeed gradually overdrawing its future expectations. If the demand for lithium in the future is not as expected, the price of lithium will decline. The decline will become a new risk point.
Yesterday, the auction price of overseas lithium mines fell for the first time. Australian lithium miner Pilbara conducted its fourth lithium concentrate auction this year and its seventh time in history. The final auction price was the FOB price. 6188 US dollars / ton, down 2.55% from the last transaction price on June 23. This is the first price drop since the previous auctions in Pilbara.
Zheshang Securities pointed out that the development of new energy vehicles, wind power, photovoltaics and other industries have driven lithium batteries. In terms of demand for cathode materials, the widening supply and demand gap for lithium carbonate from 2021 to 2023 will drive up lithium prices, and the company's performance will be maintained. If downstream demand fails to grow as expected, it will have an impact on the company's sales revenue, and the decline in performance may make it difficult for the company to repay its debt. Ease.
However, Xia Juncheng, executive director and CEO of Tianqi Lithium, said at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange yesterday that in terms of lithium prices, according to the current supply and demand relationship, supply will not be able to keep up with demand in the short term. “So, as long as the relationship between supply and demand is There is a gap, and we are very confident in the lithium price. "
Editor: Captain
