Let’s feel it, and then recall your own mental journey during this wave. It seems to be a volatile market rise, but in fact it is a “gentle short squeeze”. This trend will even make “veterans” slap in the face and kick them away (no examples on the site) too much).
Previous post by an old investor "Standard 45-degree ascending channel, continue to sit tight and support!" 》It has been analyzed that the 45-degree rising channel is the most stable and long-lasting, so in the short term, there is no end in sight.
2, Shanghai Stock Exchange Weekly;
is a standard V-shaped reversal of , and it is very strong. To be honest, it is probably beyond most people’s expectations. In the early days, veteran investors thought that it would trade sideways around 3200 points for about two months before turning upward. , to be optimistic, the best thing to do is think about the trend of the same period in 2020.
But fortunately, this round of old investors have been revising their predictions in advance (the so-called Shengtian Banzi? Hehe!), which has also allowed the accounts of old investors to quickly reach "10,000 fans". Thank you again for your support and likes.
3, year line.
Please note that the annual closing line in May was 3488 points, in June it was 3460 points, and in July it was 3436 points. Although the decline in the annual line has slowed down due to the rise in the past two months, there is a high probability that the closing line in July will still fall to 3420. up and down.
Two, a strong sector (automobile).
1, automobile daily line.
The automobile sector has been the strongest in the past two months, with the index nearly doubling. However, the daily volume of on June 29 fell by 7.68%, indicating that the probability of short-term adjustment is very high.
2, car perimeter.
hit a record high for the second week, and the index exceeded 10%, but the weekly closed a long upper and lower shadow line with historical volume. Under normal circumstances, this is a sign of peaking.
Three, big finance. Why does
mention this section?
Although the major financial banks have been relatively transparent in the past three years, and the securities companies have only pulsed twice, it is undeniable that they are present at every critical moment and when closing the bank.
However, in the short term (July), the banking sector has recently caused "headaches" for some small banks, and it is thankful to be able to stabilize; while the brokerage sector, although it has gained strength in mid-June, there is a high probability that it will not be able to survive in the short term. superior.
Summary:
In summary, the market in July, with the remaining power of the 45-degree upward channel, suddenly the annual line is not a big problem. According to the law of effective breakthrough, it should exceed 3%, that is, around 3550 points.
However, combined with the trends of the heavyweight sector (big finance) and the leading sector (automobile), and considering the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike at the end of the month, the turmoil of the international capital market (the second half of the year is likely not to be good), and the price above 3,500 points in the past two The big platform of 2020 (unwinding pressure), in addition to the technical pressure of withdrawing after the annual line breaks through, we need to have a plan for the July monthly line to close the longer upper shadow line (key point!).
However, the main line in the first half of July (impacting 3,500 points) is still worth tracking.
Let’s continue the topic.
April, July main line.
The above summary mentioned that automobiles and big finance may not be expected, so let’s take a look at the winner of the closing price on July 1st. Does this mean that he is the most handsome boy in July?
1, electricity.
①, daily line;
②, weekly line;
In July, the head in circle 1 is not a big problem, right?
2, infrastructure.
①, daily line;
Everyone should pay attention to three points. First, there is also the head and shoulders bottom shape. Second, the adjustment time has been nearly two months. Third, the short-term trend has broken upward.
②, weekly line.
There are two points to make on the weekly line. First, the volume has been very healthy, but it is short of a round of heavy volume. mainly rises to ; second, it seems to be at a high level, and the overall increase is close to double, but let’s think about it since this round of bull market. How many times for medical treatment and liquor? There are also ferrous metals, coal, and automobiles (including the entire new energy sector ). However, under this year's "economic needs" and the layers of "all aspects" of the current infrastructure construction, doubling it is definitely not in line with their needs. Isn't it?
3, other sections.
In addition to the above two sectors, other small metals, such as small metals, should have a strong momentum under this new energy wave, including the semi-annual report expectations; military industry and steel may also have opportunities to make a splash; brokerages should still be there Use a small amount of force when breaking through; but compared with the above two sectors, the weight and certainty of these may be slightly worse.
summary:
1, choose the power sector, the technology is fine, but the fundamentals and logic include timing, the post two days ago "Is it the turn of electricity ( green electricity )? "There is an explanation. If you are interested, you can read it.
2, infrastructure, "information aspect", technical aspect, and logic are all sufficient, and green electricity is actually a part of (new) infrastructure, which also includes water conservancy, building materials, etc., everyone should complement each other.
summary:
1, in July, the index may rise first and then decline. If it effectively breaks through the annual line, be careful about a pullback.
2, the driving force for effectively breaking through the annual line may come from the two sectors of electricity and infrastructure. This may also be the main line in July. .
pay attention to the old investors, we will move forward together.
