China and India are the only two super-populous countries in the world with a population of more than 1 billion, and they have always been compared. Many people believe that India is what China was more than ten years ago and can copy China's path to become stronger. What China has achieved, India will eventually achieve. So is that really the case? actually not.
India's GDP in 2021 is 3.09 trillion U.S. dollars, and it is expected to be around 3.2 trillion U.S. dollars this year. This volume is similar to our country's GDP around 2007. Our country's GDP in 2007 was 3.55 trillion U.S. dollars. That is, if India can copy our country's growth rate, then the gap between the GDP of the two countries is about 15 years.
But in fact, the gap between the two countries is far greater than 15 years. India may not be able to complete the road that my country took 15 years to complete in 20 years, let alone shorten the time and catch up with my country.
To give a simple example, if India's GDP can exceed 5 trillion US dollars, it will firmly become the third largest economy in the world. India's GDP in 2021 has exceeded 3 trillion US dollars, reaching 3.09 trillion US dollars. It only needs to increase GDP by 61.8% to reach the target. In the case of
, it will take about 2-3 years for our country to complete it at the same level. In 2007, my country's GDP exceeded 3 trillion US dollars, reaching 3.55 trillion US dollars. Then it only took 2 years for my country's GDP to exceed 5 trillion US dollars. In 2009, my country's GDP has reached 5.1 trillion US dollars, that is, since It only took my country 2 years to surpass US$3 trillion to US$5 trillion. In 2009, GDP increased by 43.66% compared with 2007.
Some people may say that 3.55 trillion U.S. dollars is higher than 3.09 trillion U.S. dollars. Then if we relax it for one year, by 2010, my country's GDP has reached 6.09 trillion U.S. dollars, an increase of 71.55% compared with 2007.
If India wants to copy my country's speed, its GDP will exceed US$5 trillion within 2-3 years. Calculated in two years, India needs GDP to reach 5 trillion US dollars in 2023. This is simply impossible, because India's GDP is only expected to reach about 3.2 trillion US dollars this year. If calculated in 3 years, India needs GDP to reach 5 trillion US dollars in 2024. Reaching 5 trillion U.S. dollars is also an impossible goal. This means that Indiaās GDP growth rate in U.S. dollars in the past three years must reach 18% per year, which is obviously beyond the reach of India.
So how long will it take for Indiaās GDP to grow from US$3.09 trillion to US$5 trillion? I expect it will take at least 6 years with exchange rate unchanged. In these six years, India's annual nominal GDP growth rate must be maintained above 8.4% and inflation reduced by 2.5%, which requires India's annual economic growth rate to be around 5.9% in these six years.
If the Indian rupee appreciates, we can subtract 1 year, which means it will take 5 years at the earliest, and Indiaās GDP will exceed US$5 trillion by 2026.
