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First, let’s talk about this round of short squeeze.
1, first look at the K line chart .
What a perfect 45-degree ascending channel, but since 2863, how many investors have turned to bear market thinking, and how many investors are waiting for to hit the bottom again ?
has kicked countless people away, and old investors have been constantly revising their short-term expectations in advance (old stock investors are the real "shengtianbanzi" [snickering] [smirking], everyone knows why they are snickering), this process , from 3150 points to 3300 points to 3400 points, and even the last two divine reversals, it can be said that they all hit. Why is this? Everyone look down.
2, why is there this round of short squeeze?
First of all, look at the big picture, this is a bull market! Going bearish means that we are admitting defeat in the competition between major powers in the financial field. Do you think it is possible? If we don’t understand such a big issue of right and wrong, we can only say that the pattern is big enough;
Secondly, from a technical and logical point of view, from 1999 to 2001, the reverse U.S. stock cycle has lessons learned from the past. For details, you can click on the image to read the early stage of old investors Original article " Historically, Big A has gone against the U.S. stock market cycle for 15 months. This round, there is only one "5.19" market ";
Finally, from the perspective of market liquidity, since 2863 points, the market has been relatively stable It can be said that the injection of sex is constantly increasing, and veteran investors have once analyzed in a special post that the essence of the stock market rise is capital-driven...
In addition, the protection of the "news side", since May and June, can be said to be Warm winds are blowing frequently, and our stock market has always been a "news-oriented" market (as everyone knows);
In addition, the deep hole formed by the market's overreaction since the beginning of the year is also an important factor.
will rise if it falls too much. What a simple truth!
Therefore, this round of short squeeze seems to be unexpected but also reasonable.
So, where will the short squeeze go? Read on.
Second, the band target is 3500 points or 3800 points.
1, why choose these two points?
3500 points (area), which belongs to the center of the major platform in the past two years and is also near the cost line of most investors.
If the initial target of this round is 3500 points, then the purpose is to relieve most investors, thereby releasing a certain amount of consumption power and stabilizing the capital market (everyone must consider the registration system );
and 3800 points (area), this position belongs to the new high of this bull market (since 2440 points). If you choose this point, it will declare that the bull market is still there, and the main Shenglang of the bull market is coming.
2, how will the market choose? It is possible for
to choose the 3500 point area. Veteran investors personally think it is more logical and technical, but the variables are in big finance. In big finance, the popularity of the brokerage sector is too strong. The bull market standard bearer is not a joke, and banks, weight Too big, both are in low-level areas. These two sectors are in a strong position, and it is not difficult for the index to reach 3800.
In addition, the enthusiasm of foreign capital is also a variable.
Old stock investors have been saying since the beginning of the year that it is not terrible to fall, but it is terrible to have foreign capital take the lead and make senseless rises in advance. After all, the lessons learned from the past 15 years are there.
However, as time goes by, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates more than halfway, and the US stock market is holding on, and our position is not high, then in the second half (second half of the year), we welcome foreign investment to go long.
The most important thing is that you must control the rhythm in your own hands!
Therefore, for the initial target, 3500 points is the ideal area. In July, the cross star is the most perfect!
three, is it possible to go higher?
is higher, it is possible, but it is not a good thing, and it is also what old investors are worried about. Why do you say this?
1, if this happens, for example, in July ( monthly line ) and then pull the big positive line , that is, it reaches the 4000-4300 point area, then there is a high probability that foreign capital is in the fire;
2, it is also possible that I will follow the trend and look for opportunities. Launch a comprehensive registration system.
4000~4300 points, big finance can pull up. At this position, if foreign investors want to leave, we will fall. It can be regarded as neither going up nor down, and can be attacked or defended.
3, why is it not a good thing?
Because once it reaches more than 4,000 points, it is the time when on-site funds increase and off-site funds pour in. At this time, there will be a deep adjustment. It is conceivable...
Due to space limitations, for the last question, we will specifically Let’s talk about it in detail in the next article.
summary:
personally believes that this round of phased short squeeze, reaching the area near 3500 and then oscillating, that is, it is more logical for the July monthly line to close the star. Why do you say this?
1, the Fed is likely to raise interest rates again at the end of July, and there is not enough time;
2, since 2863 points, whether it is profit taking or unwinding, there is pressure on the index;
3, the leading sector (automobile) The decline is beginning to show;
4, at a higher level, the "news side" may not agree with it and is not in line with our rhythm.
is purely a personal plan, just treat it as a fortune teller and does not serve as an investment basis.
pay attention to the old investors, we will move forward together.
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