2022, half a year of floating life, first bitter and then sweet, passed so happily (suffering).
2021 is a structured market, where track and cycle resource products will shine. By Q4, the growth of many industries has stalled, and the market is beginning to show signs of weakness and is struggling to trade sideways. Coming to 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Shanghai epidemic brought so much damage to the market at the beginning of the spring. In March and April, fell sharply against , exceeding most people's expectations. If the index is high, it is easy to understand, but the 10-year-old green tea with 3,000 points can still kill it downwards. The emotions are interpreted to the extreme, and I still have lingering fears when I look back.
html The strong rebound since the end of April was in vain, as the beautiful country started its interest rate hike cycle, and Big A took the step of disowning its relatives again, which was also stronger than everyone's expectations. This also shows that when the market no longer reflects the obvious negative, either the bear market bottoms out or the bull market mainly rises.1. Summary of operations in the first half of the year
received positive feedback from the market on the track and resource products last year. I felt that my research was invincible, so I used too much force and got a little carried away. Only after I was chopped off by a knife this year did I feel that performance fluctuations were just an introduction to medicine compared with valuation fluctuations. This year we gave up on in-depth research. In addition to the insufficient coverage of capabilities and the insignificant marginal benefits of and , it is easier to strengthen the subjective deviation effect in research. It is simpler and more objective to do valuation operations with fluctuations in stable performance. The premise is to accept normal returns, divide positions, and conduct positions and staged control according to the general trend. Keep a bottom position, resolutely sell on the grid when the price rises sharply, and buy on the grid when the price falls sharply.
had three real accounts in the first half of the year, but basically no operations, just lying down and pretending to be dead. However, I opened two strategic combinations on snowball , and practiced the growth logic driven by price with /valuation with fluctuation, operated every day, and operated seriously.
1. Real offer performance: It has basically recovered during the year and has not yet returned to last year’s high point. There is still a 15% gap.
2, simulated combination performance
combination one (created on January 6): Based on the Xue Si channel indicator, build a bottom position and make a T between the upper and lower rails of the middle channel. The bottom position is subjective.
Net value on June 30: 0.9286
Brief comment: This is the strategy formulated at the beginning of the year around the white horse shock market, that is, introducing a shock technical indicator, building a bottom position, adding or subtracting floating positions according to the channel fluctuation grid, smoothing the performance curve, and controlling the return. withdraw. The bottom position of
is mainly copied from a 5-year combination of an old chuck, which is recognized by the market as a white horse. After half a year of simulated operations,
found that completely "subjective" stock selection was equally hammered. Simply looking at technical lines cannot reveal the true high and low position of the stock price, because the relative relationship between stock price and performance is still effectively maintained. Many people give up on value investing. In fact, it is not that value investing is ineffective, but that the relationship between value and price is too jumpy. It is like walking a dog by whistling.
combination two (created on March 10) is a new upgraded version of combination one: based on the price-earnings channel (PE-Band) indicator, the 42 component stocks of the "Mao Index" are used as the main candidate pool to build bottom positions, and 19 Individual stocks and 1 ETF are placed in positions. When the position was first established, it was when the bear market was intensifying. The position was controlled at 20~30%. It rose to 40% at the end of May and 60% in mid-June. Each stock is re-established with equal weight. If the single-day decline exceeds 3% or the cumulative decline in 3 days exceeds 5%, it will be added to the equal-weight position.
pool entry criteria:
1. Taking the rolling price-to-earnings ratio (TTM PE-Band) as the main reference, taking into account the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio (cautious principle of expectations), the valuation has reached the historical bottom area;
2. The performance continues to grow at a high rate, or it may temporarily encounter The external environment affects the growth rate, which is flat at most and cannot decline sharply;
3. Selling criteria: the price rises to the high level of the historical valuation zone (PE-Band is on track)
Net value on June 30: 1.1049
2. Outlook for the second half of the year
Outlook In the second half of the year and even further into the future, we know that many things that have already happened are bound to continue, such as the game between great powers, such as the mutation and control of the virus, such as the U.S. dollar interest rate hike ; there are many more that will happen with high probability, such as the domestic economy will be suppressed first. Later, for example, the geopolitical turmoil in the world continues one after another; there are also some black swans and gray rhinoceros . The probability is very small but they will always come unexpectedly.
For the macro, individuals can only bear it.At the level of individual efforts, one can only try/attempt to grasp microscopic laws and seek advantages and avoid disadvantages.
The reason why people are obsessed with the law of cause and effect and are keen on discovering and grasping natural/social laws is simply to be able to predict the results and the future. Being able to foresee the future means changing your destiny, which is especially true in the stock market. Looking forward to the second half of the year and beyond,
has no special preferences or expectations for the track, high-prosperity industries, and cyclical stocks. Minimize the involvement of subjective judgments in the long-term growth of each specific enterprise. The more judgment there is, the more mistakes there are bound to be. In terms of performance calculation, try to adopt consistent/median expectations as much as possible, and then discount appropriately. What is more important is that valuations are lower than normal expectations, or overreaction to pessimistic expectations.
looks forward to the second half of the year and even further into the future, and we must lower our expectations for ourselves and the market. Life is unpredictable, the big intestine covers the small intestine, let alone the market. As a chuck, always remind yourself: the market can only be exploited and cannot be predicted. Efforts are made to discover and hold a group of excellent companies with outstanding ability to create incremental value every day. Buy when they are underestimated and sell when they are overestimated (hopefully they will never need to sell). During the holding period, keep the bottom position and use floating positions to cope with short-term big events. The only way to achieve success is by smoothing the income curve and improving the stock-holding experience in both ups and downs.
