Original title: Analysis of the production status and competitive landscape of China's coal-to-methanol industry in 2021, emerging downstream has become the growth point of methanol consumption "Figure" 1. Analysis of the market status of China's coal-to-methanol industry 1. Chem

Original title: Analysis of the production status and competitive landscape of China's coal-to-methanol industry in 2021, emerging downstream has become the growth point of methanol consumption "Figure"

1. Analysis of the market status of China's coal-to-methanol industry

1, chemical coal consumption

Coal in my country's dominant position in energy consumption will not change in the short to medium term, mainly because my country is still in the stage of rapid industrialization. With the rapid development of emerging industries and the improvement of residents' living standards, the electricity consumption of the whole society will continue to maintain a high growth. Renewable energy is still unable to meet the growth of electricity consumption, and coal needs to play a protective role. However, under the constraints of the "double carbon" goal, coal must develop towards clean and efficient utilization, and use high-carbon energy in a low-carbon manner to not only ensure energy security, but also fulfill the "double carbon" commitment. In recent years, my country's chemical industry coal consumption has shown an overall growth trend. As of 2021, my country's chemical industry coal consumption is 220.53 million tons. In the future, clean and efficient utilization of coal will be the long-term development direction of the industry.

China's chemical coal consumption and growth rate from 2016 to 2021

Source: Coal Resources Network, compiled by Huajing Industrial Research Institute

2, methanol production capacity and output

In 2021, the domestic methanol annual production capacity reached 97.385 million tons, an increase of 3.02 million compared with 2020 tons, an increase of 3.20%. In 2021, the domestic methanol failed production capacity will be about 2.48 million tons. The new failed methanol projects include methanol units of Puyang Longyu, Hebei Jinyuan, Jilin Tonghua, Jiangsu Tianyu, Xuzhou Weitian and other companies.

China's methanol production capacity and growth rate from 2016 to 2021

Source: Guangzhou Chemical Trading Center, compiled by Huajing Industrial Research Institute

Coal gasification to methanol projects are generally concentrated in coal-producing areas, with the purpose of making it easier to use upstream coal resources. According to statistics, the national methanol production capacity in 2021 is concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shandong and Shanxi. The four provinces together account for 46.8% of the national production capacity.

China's methanol production capacity distribution in 2021 (unit: %)

Source: Compilation of public information

Throughout 2021, the total domestic methanol production reached 78.1638 million tons, an increase of 11.7318 million tons compared with 2020, an increase of 17.66%. In 2021, domestic monthly methanol production will first increase and then decrease.

my country's monthly methanol production statistics from January to December 2021

Source: Guangzhou Chemical Trading Center, compiled by Huajing Industrial Research Institute

3, methanol production raw materials

In 2020, China's methanol production capacity accounted for approximately 67% of the world's, making it the country with the largest methanol production capacity in the world. . Due to the resource characteristics of my country's rich coal, poor oil and little gas, 81% of my country's methanol production in 2021 will come from coal. Since 2010, the proportion of methanol produced by coal gasification has continued to expand; while the raw material for overseas methanol production is mainly natural gas , accounting for More than 90%. Therefore, due to the essential differences in production raw materials, changes in fossil energy prices may bring about fluctuations in costs and profits of different production routes.

Comparison of raw materials for methanol production in China and overseas

Source: Compilation of public information

4, current energy consumption of coal chemical industry

The coal-to-methanol production process releases carbon dioxide less than direct combustion, which has the effect of reducing emissions. From the carbon emissions per unit of coal converted In terms of quantity, the CO2 emission value of coal chemical industry ranges from 2.1t/tce to 2.5t/tce. In coal-fired power generation, all carbon except ash residue carbon is converted into CO2. Based on the carbon content of a ton of standard coal being 0.855t and the ash residue carbon rate being 2%, the theoretical carbon emission value per unit of coal is 3.1t/ tce, so coal-to-methanol reduces carbon emissions by about 30% compared to direct combustion of coal.

Comparison of carbon emissions in the coal chemical production process

Source: CNKI, compiled by Huajing Industrial Research Institute

Since the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", regional energy consumption indicators and dual-carbon targets have restricted the expansion of coal-to-olefins production capacity. In 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Regulating the Orderly Development of the Coal Chemical Industry", prohibiting the construction of coal-to-methanol-to-olefins projects with an annual output of 500,000 tons or less.In October 2021, the State Council issued the "Opinions on Completely, Accurately and Comprehensively Implementing the New Development Concept and Doing a Good Job in Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality", proposing to resolutely curb the blind development of high-energy-consuming and high-emission projects that are not included in the national industrial planning in relevant fields. No new construction, reconstruction or expansion of oil refining or new ethylene, paraxylene, or coal-to-olefins projects is allowed. The increased difficulty in expanding olefin production will help existing coal-to-olefin companies expand their market share and maintain their competitive advantages.

Coal-to-methanol energy consumption standard

Source: Compilation of public information

5, Coal-to-methanol production cost

In the context of the current high international energy prices, whether it is the coal head route or the gas head route, raw material prices have an impact on the cost of methanol production. Form strong support. According to statistics, the cost of coal-to-methanol will reach 2,461.5 yuan/ton in 2021, of which the cost of coal will reach 2,011.5 yuan/ton, accounting for 81.7%; the cost of the natural gas-to-methanol route will be 2,680 yuan/ton, and the cost of raw materials will account for 85%.

China’s methanol production cost in 2021 (Coal Head Line)

Source: Compilation of public information

6, apparent consumption of methanol

As an important organic chemical raw material, methanol’s consumption has maintained a steady increasing trend from 2017 to 2021, with compound The growth rate was 6.42%; consumption in the first four months of 2022 was 26.777 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.58%.

my country’s apparent methanol consumption and growth rate from 2017 to April 2022

Source: Compilation of public information

2. Analysis of the competitive landscape of China’s coal-to-methanol industry

According to statistics, in 2017, my country’s methanol production capacity was more than 1 million tons/year. There are 14 companies, accounting for 29% of the production capacity; and there are 25 companies with a production capacity of more than one million tons in 2021, with a total production capacity of 45.7 million tons, accounting for 46%, and the industry concentration has further increased.

Some companies producing methanol (capacity of more than 1.3 million tons/year) (10,000 tons/year)

Source: Compilation of public information

Original title: Analysis of the production status and competitive landscape of China's coal-to-methanol industry in 2021, emerging downstream has become Methanol consumption growth point "map"

Huajing Industrial Research Institute conducted an in-depth analysis of the development status of China's coal-to-methanol industry, the industry's upstream and downstream industry chains, competition patterns and key enterprises, to minimize the investment risks and operations of enterprises Cost, improve the competitiveness of enterprises; and use a variety of data analysis technologies to predict industry development trends, so that enterprises can seize market opportunities in a timely manner; for more details, please pay attention to the "2022-2027" published by Huajing Industrial Research Institute China's coal-to-methanol market size status and investment planning recommendations report.