The S&P 500 Index rose and fell more than 1% for four consecutive trading days, setting a record for the longest time since June 2020. On the other hand, the situation in the U.S. bond market is the same, with 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yields fluctuating violently at around 1.5%.
This reflects that investors in the current market have obvious differences in their views on the bull market and the bear market. On the one hand, the lingering uncertainty of the US government’s debt ceiling, the tightening of the Fed’s policy, and the unrecovered supply chain have restrained the market. On the other hand, the improvement of the new crown epidemic, continued economic growth, and US companies expected to achieve more double-digit profit growth, have encouraged investor confidence.
The S&P 500 index has risen and fallen more than 1% for four consecutive days.
Crossmark Global Investments Chief Investment Officer Bob Doll said, “When both parties have reasonable reasons to support both parties’ reasons, The volatility of the market tends to be greater."
The US stock market rose during the trading day on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 index rising 1.1%. Some analysts believe that the main reason is that the US September ISM non-manufacturing PMI recorded 61.9, which exceeded Economists had expected 59.9, and on Friday the government will release the September employment report. The day before, the sell-off of some technology stocks triggered a similar decline in the S&P 500 index.
Obviously, the volatility of the stock market is rising. Unlike previous performance, the stock market generally appeared to be slightly calm in the third quarter. As of mid-September, the S&P 500 index had a 42-day increase of less than 1%, which is the longest low-income market since January 2020. Although sharp price fluctuations may provide better opportunities for stock pickers, investors who are determined to buy bottoms will also face a series of tests. At present, ETF institutional investors have not returned in a big way, and retail investors have also remained vigilant.
"I am not going to start bargaining at this time. I think there is more downside, especially for certain overvalued stocks in the market," said Megan Horneman, head of portfolio strategy at Verdence Capital. "At the same time, I don't think,Excessive growth of certain industries will bring about the rise of interest rates or the duration of high inflation beyond expectations, as well as the possibility of corporate income tax increases.
Although the S&P 500 rebounded in mid-Tuesday, it is still below the 100-day moving average, which is the key support level for this bull market. The index has not yet broken through the resistance at 4385. The index last week and July At all times, there have been attempts to break through, but they were all unsuccessful.
The S&P 500 index is below the 100-day average and has not yet broken through the resistance level at 4385 points
According to Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets (RBCCapital Markets) data shows that in the case of increased market volatility, option investors seem to be reluctant to add the corresponding option position to their positions, and use to hedge downside risks of the S&P 500 index. This sign indicates that, The worst downtrend the market has experienced may be over.
Similarly, although Nasdaq 100 Index hit a new low this week, Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) NDX volatility index_ The span20span (NDX Volatility Index) also fell. This index measures the cost of options linked to a high-weight index of technology stocks. Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at Bay Crest Partners, said the market is divergent, and The relative index decline of the Nasdaq 100 Index indicates that the downward trend that has lasted for a month will stop. Christie said in a customer report: "Even if the market does not return to a new high, for investors, A start may make the market rise even higher.
However, not everyone is optimistic. Goldman Sachs 's institutional brokerage company data compiled shows thatSome investors have strengthened the short sale for 8 consecutive days. On Monday, when technology stocks led the decline, they sold software stocks at the fastest rate since July and cut Facebook (FB.US), Amazon (AMZN.US), Apple (AAPL.US) , , Microsoft (MSFT.US) and Alphabet (GOOGL.US) and other large technology stocks.
Wells Fargo (Wells Fargo & Co.) strategist Harvey (Chris Harvey) believes that part of the reason for this round of market volatility is that investors anticipate possible changes in monetary policy and global growth prospects and re-allocate corresponding assets . "We are in a transition period. Some of the measures that have worked in the past few months are no longer working."
This article is derived from Zhitong Finance
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