A-shares From September 27th to September 29th, Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.24% and closed at 3568.17 points. The cumulative increase in September was 0.69%, showing a trend of retreat. SZSE Component Index fell 0.34% to close at 14309.01 points. In September, it fell by 0.14%, showing a range-bound trend. %, which is also a fluctuating trend. The total net inflow of northbound funds for the week was 6.967 billion, and the cumulative net inflow in September was 30.519 billion.
September’s market is over, looking forward to October’s market
In the overall September, the market experienced ups and downs. At the beginning of the month, and Shanghai index all the way up to 3700 points. The market was unanimously expected to go to 4000 points, but unfortunately the Shanghai Index still fell back. There were several turning points. First of all, at the beginning of September, the economy was generally expected to be bad, and the RRR will be lowered again in September, but then the overall currency There have been some changes in policy expectations. The most important thing is that some high-level officials have expressed their views on monetary policy. Therefore, the stock market began to react in mid-September. This was a turning point.
Then the market began to pay attention to dual control. What dual control is more worried about is how much influence it will have on the overall economy in the future? It also brings pressure to the broader market. The third is the disturbance of overseas factors, and bond yields have risen again. Therefore, we can see that there are a lot of bad news in the middle and late September, which led to the emergence of the A-share market. Fell.
From the perspective of October,On the one hand, will there be a RRR cut, because the economic data released on Thursday is relatively unsatisfactory, which also means that the pressure on the overall economy is increasing, so now the market is starting to look forward to the RRR cut again, and the second point is to pay attention to bonds. Whether the yield will rise further, because from the point of view of the time when the Fed closed the water, it should be implemented in November, so it is possible that the demand for overall bonds will decline, which will cause the bond yield to rise. At the same time, more attention is now being paid. It’s the debt ceiling. Although this is an overseas factor, global economic integration will also have an adverse impact on A shares. So, on the whole, October may still be a shock market. The upward space and downward space will not be particularly large.
Technical analysis
The daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly lines of the Shanghai Stock Exchange closed. Let’s see that the quarterly line has broken through the doji, and the 2018 has gradually risen. At the high point of the year, the trading volume began to enlarge, which belongs to the increase in volume and price. The MACD golden fork is still there. I said last year that the historical MACD golden fork was a bull market, so from a long-term perspective, there is no problem.
The monthly line closes the upper shadow Yang line, rises and falls and increases in volume. This is a stagflation. Looking at the K line in the past few months, the K line is in a range consolidation, and the MACD fast and slow line is shrinking at a high level. The key is October. Weak formation of may form a top and further downwards. If the positive line is closed in October, MACD will go flat or turn up, and the general trend will remain unchanged.
The weekly line closed the lower shadow line and held the neck line. MACD glued and went flat. There was not much signal. However, there is only one trading day this week. The trend of one day determines a weekly K line . Trading volume will inevitably shrink. If MACD falls, it may form a deadlock, which will have a greater impact on next week.
The daily line closes the positive line,The trend showed a step back and stopped falling. There is support at the 60-day moving average and the half-year line, forming a bullish pregnancy line, which is a common K-line reversal pattern , KDJ and RSI indicators have signs of turning heads upwards , But the MACD fast and slow lines are still diverging downwards, and the overall view can be inclined to be optimistic.
GEM quarter line closed the negative line, the overall trend is still there, the last quarter line rose by more than 20%, a correction is normal, a typical shock rise, the monthly line closed down and the shadow Yang line Shrinkage, the space below is limited, but MACD is also shrinking and facing a dead cross. The situation is the same as that of the Shanghai Composite. Above the line, the probability of continuing to rebound after the holiday is relatively high.
The above are all personal opinions sharing , non-experts, non-scholars and non-teachers. The content in this article is for learning and communication only, and does not constitute risk investment advice. Take your own responsibility, you need to have your own ideas for investment, welcome to leave a message to exchange, please pay attention to [z.owen] for more exciting content, and you will not get lost when you come back.
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