Mr. Zhou Jintao has a famous saying, "Life is rich by Kangbo", which means that a person gets rich. The most essential thing is not his ability and hard work, but the economic cycle activities bring him opportunities . For example, a dozen years ago, Shanxi coal boss, how rich the coal boss was at that time, some top stars and actors at that time married the coal boss.
Let me introduce Zhou Jintao first, maybe some friends don't know him yet. A well-known macro-economist, he successfully predicted the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007. In 2013, he successfully predicted an inflection point in the real estate cycle. In 2015, he successfully predicted global asset price fluctuations. In 2016, he successfully predicted a rebound in commodity prices. Because of these several gods predictions, coupled with the Kang Bo theory he has been studying and admiring, he was called the cycle king-"Nicholas Jintao". In December 2016, the cycle king died young due to pancreatic cancer. He was 44 years old.
After his death, his articles and research were reposted a lot, and Kang Bo's theory became more known.
The economic cycle activity mentioned by Mr. Zhou Jintao is the Kang Bo he has been studying. The reason it is called Kang Bo is because of the economic cycle. The earliest discoverer was the Russian economist Kondratiev in 1926. After analyzing a large number of statistical data on Britain, France, the United States, Germany and the world economy, he discovered that there is a long cycle of 50-60 years in the developed commodity economy. Since Kondratiev discovered this cycle, it is also called "Kangbo".
The so-called Kangbo means that the economy will repeat itself from rebound, prosperity, recession and finally to depression. There are many types of Compo cycle. The most famous one is that of the Dutch economist Jacob Van Duin. He lists four Compo cycles and representative technological innovations.
A sign of the opening of the Kangbo cycle is the iconic technological innovation of this period. The first Kangbo cycle started with the technological innovation represented by the steam engine. The time was from 1782 to 1845. With a steam engine, labor can be liberated,Started large-scale production, mainly focusing on textiles.
Don’t underestimate the matter of textiles. This is the basic needs of human beings for food, clothing, housing and transportation. Wasn’t the Silk Road originally designed to transport clothes to the Middle East and Europe? Regardless of whether it is the British Empire, the later America, or the later China, the country's first step towards industrialization is textiles.
The sign of the opening of the second Kangbo cycle is the technological innovation represented by steel and railways. The innovation of railway technology not only increases transportation efficiency and productivity, but more importantly, trades between different places. Closely combined to form a trade zone, and then evolved into a modern world trade situation.
For example, in Germany, the unification of Germany is largely attributed to railways, because before Germany was composed of hundreds of city states, and there was no concept of a country. Each city-state used its own currency and set trade barriers and tariffs between each other. If you want to go from the east to the west of Germany, you have to cross over a dozen city-states and exchange more than a dozen currencies.
With the railway, the trade between city-states became more and more convenient, allowing different city-states to realize the convenience and wealth brought by trade, so in order to further promote trade, currencies began to be unified, and tariffs between each other began Cancellation formed the concept of the country over time.
The third Kangbo cycle was from 1892 to 1913. The iconic technological innovation was the birth of heavy industry represented by the electrical and heavy chemical industries. This is still represented by Germany. After the birth of the railway, it promoted the exchange of trade, so the demand for the construction of the railway is greater, and the construction of the railway requires the mining and metallurgy. Once the large-scale production is formed, it will become our current The embryonic form of heavy industry. Germany led the world on the road of heavy industry at the time, and the United States later followed closely behind.
The fourth Compo cycle is from 1948 to 1991. It is a representative technology of automobiles and computers. At this time, the leading country in the world became the United States. Originally, Germany was in the lead during the heavy industry period. But the two world wars were beaten back to the Stone Age and developed from the beginning. The United States also took advantage of the two world wars, and all the assets and talents of the world went to the United States, creating the United States leading the fourth Kangbo cycle.
For example, Bill Gates, the reason why he became the richest man in the world,It is because computer technology innovation started in that era, and now those engaged in computer systems do not have this momentum. In the past few years, mobile Internet innovation has brought a wave of wealthy people, but the development speed of mobile Internet has dropped significantly in the past two years.
Economic trends in the past two hundred years have also verified the validity of the Kangbo theory. We are now in the fifth Kangbo cycle starting in 1991. Zhou Jintao will take the fifth Kangbo cycle. The boom period is from 1991 to 2010, and the recession period is from 2020 to 2030. He once speculated that 2020 will usher in a stock market boom, but later he predicted that the preconditions for this result have changed. As for the conclusion, is it still true? If it can be correct, we can only verify it through time.
Zhou Jintao's perfect cycle forecast is for bulk commodities, such as iron ore, cotton, silver ore, etc. The bulk commodities are the most cyclical and belong to the most profitable category in the Kangbo theory.
In March 2016, nine months before Zhou Jintao's death, he gave the last speech in his life, the topic was "Life is a Kangbo". This was also the most pessimistic of Zhou Jintao's public speech. He judged The next ten years are destined to be spent in the depression of the Kangbo cycle. 2019 is the worst year for China's economy. For now, although he does not know that the epidemic is coming, this prediction is not wrong.
He made this judgment because he felt that Internet + is already the last stage of information technology. Once a technology penetrates into all things, it will reach the last stage of its life cycle. According to the Kangbo cycle Theoretically, when liquidity does not make money and information technology is declining, it means that a period of depression is coming.
He himself originally planned to sell investment real estate and NEEQ equity, buy gold, take a two-year vacation to exercise, and wait until 2019 to come back. It is a pity that he died of illness nine months later. It is really jealous. Talent.
From this theoretical point of view, people around the age of 40 have their first life opportunity in 1999, but the people who have seized this opportunity are good. The second opportunity is in 2008, when they buy stocks and buy stocks. The house is now a winner in life.Zhou Jintao predicts that the third chance will be around 2030, which we can only wait and see.
What are the wealth of a person's life? There are four main categories, one is bulk commodities, one is real estate, the other is stocks, and the last is art.
The bull market of commodities also appeared once in decades. The last time it appeared was from 2000 to 2002, the era when coal bosses broke out. At that time, the Internet was just emerging, and there was no shadow of the mobile Internet. Therefore, many of the stories of coal bosses were heard through newspapers, television, and hearsay. There are true and false, giving people a vague and mysterious color.
Real estate is full of vigor and excitement, mainly because of the mobile Internet era. When you turn on the mobile phone, you will know that all kinds of news are also discussed online. For a long time, real estate is a topic after dinner.
Mr. Zhou mentioned in his speech that the real estate cycle is about a 20-year cycle, and within a 20-year cycle, it will increase in 15 years and decrease in 5 years. A person usually buys a house twice in his life, one is when he is just married, he buys a wedding house, and the other is when he replaces the house after the age of 40. After reaching the age of 50, his main consumption changed from house to pension.
According to Kang Bo's theory, a person's life is mainly three real estate cycles, a 20-year cycle, and a real estate cycle consists of two fixed asset investment cycles, a 10-year cycle.
He once had a famous thesis on wealth in life: in theory, there are only three opportunities that a person can get in his life. If every opportunity is not caught, the wealth of his life will be gone. If you seize one of the opportunities , At least a middle class.
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