01
Today, the market fluctuated and rose, and banks and other weights exerted their strength. SSE 50 rose 1.5%, driving the Shanghai Index to the 3700 mark. The turnover of the two cities exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, breaking through 1 trillion yuan for the 38th consecutive trading day. Northbound funds have a net inflow of 3.6 billion yuan throughout the day, and a cumulative net purchase of 14 billion yuan this week. However, individual stocks generally fell, and the money-making effect was weak.
Let me update my real income first:
As of the last trading day, my fund real income is 41.08%.
The net value of the fund I hold today has more reds and less green, financial real estate and partial technology track funds have risen by 2 points, and the rest of the funds are only slightly down. On the whole, today’s funds It was a bit of blood.
This week the Shanghai Composite Index was very strong, with 5 consecutive positives. The GEM also stopped falling and rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index finally broke through 3700 points again, a long-lost rise.
Liquor rose slightly today. From a technical point of view, although the bottom box is still not out of the range, the shape is slowly getting better, and the center of gravity is slowly moving up. Many investors already have a lot of positions in Baijiu, so they wait patiently for a rebound.
For most of the Christian citizens, the active fund , who first met Baijiu, is still Zhang Kun managed by . Now the fund has officially changed its name to E Fund Premium Selection.
As the saying goes,Success and failure are also failures. This year, dragged down by liquor, the fund managed by Zhang Kun lost 10.7%. Investors who hold E Fund's small and medium caps are absolutely dominated by individuals, accounting for 98.51%. The total number of holders is 3,898,400, which is counted as a national fund.
In addition, looking at the fund holdings, among the top ten stocks, only Maotai and Wuliangye are left in two liquor stocks. In the future, small and medium-sized caps can no longer be simply equated with liquor.
Pharmaceuticals fell slightly today, but still did not break through the suppression of the 20-day moving average. The biggest problem of medicine at present is centralized procurement. The endless centralized procurement has expanded from medicine to equipment. Therefore, medicine will still fluctuate in the short term, and it will take time to bottom out.
New energy rose slightly today, and it rose back to the upper edge of the box range unknowingly. In the new energy direction, there is still a steady stream of good news coming out every day.
And now there are a lot of orders for new energy vehicles, too many to keep up with the production capacity. Take BYD as an example, this year’s cumulative order volume is 900,000, but the company's delivery capacity can only reach 700 to 750,000, and the delivery capacity depends on materials and IC chips. At present, BYD has undelivered orders of 160,000 vehicles, and the delivery cycle is more than 4.5 months. The industry itself is no problem in terms of prosperity, but the new energy in the market still maintains a high level of volatility, and still has not broken the box range upwards. So as long as you are still in the box, you don’t need to operate frequently. When you choose the direction, it’s not too late to operate.
Today is a bit unexpected for semiconductors. The reason for the rise may be that some of the funds fleeing from the resource sector flowed into the semiconductors, which rose in rotation. The previous plan was to wait for semiconductors to step back on the half-year line or break through the 60-day line before operating. There is neither a breakthrough nor a step back, so we still need to observe for a few more days.
Yesterday, brokerages fell slightly in the bearish market, but the trend has not changed. The original role of the brokerage company was to pass the customs clearance.Today is considered to be the completion of the mission, after climbing high and falling back, it seems very embarrassing to collect the long shadows, but fortunately, in the end, he firmly held the support of the 5-day line.
Yesterday’s soaring resource cycle stocks fell sharply today. In the short term, sentiment has reached an “extreme”. In addition to the large number of profitable markets, the pressure on the sector is relatively high, and the futures market has also fallen simultaneously. It is estimated that some adjustments will be required Time is up. However, one or two days of ups and downs in the market will not affect the industry itself. Under the background of carbon neutral , the contradiction between the phased imbalances of the supply and demand structure is still there, and this problem cannot be solved in the short term. The specific operation is to wait for the profit plate to digest.
U.S. stocks fell and adjusted, and China probably fluctuated within a narrow range. Last night, there was news that game approvals would be suspended, based on the fact that no game received a version number throughout August.
However, NetEase CEO Ding Lei directly refuted the rumors on the company's intranet, saying it was "fake news", and Tencent rebounded 2 points. Today, Meituan, Are you hungry, and Didi were instructed to pay social insurance to the rider. This is already within expectations and there is no big problem.
I am still firmly optimistic about the Internet, buying more and more, if I continue to adjust, I will increase my position to buy.
For specific operations, see Mi Duoduo's notes.
02 Take history as a lesson, compare historical data, and see how the market should operate!
Today, the Shanghai Composite Index has returned to 3700 points, which is a few points away from the market high in February. Today's market is becoming more and more differentiated. On the one hand, it continues to fluctuate. At the same time, the market's popularity is quite high, with daily transactions exceeding one trillion for 38 consecutive days. Faced with these market characteristics, how should the fund operate in the future?
Let's compare with historical data first.
1. The degree of shock:
Taking stock of the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index since 2012, we can see that the Shanghai Composite Index has a 12.06% amplitude this year, which is actually the smallest index amplitude in the past ten years.
From a longitudinal comparison, since 2012, there have been 8 years with an amplitude of more than 20%. Among them, in the bull market from 2014 to 2015, the amplitude of the rising index reached 59.78% and 71.95%, respectively.
From this point of view, although the number of fluctuations in the index this year is frequent, in terms of magnitude, it has been relatively small in the past ten years.
- The degree of market differentiation:
Looking at the growth rates of 28 industries this year:
The "three brothers" of iron and steel, mining, and non-ferrous metals occupy the top three positions in this year's growth list, with increases of 77.61% and 61.75% respectively , 59.86%;
The large consumer sector that performed well in previous years did not perform well this year. The three industries of household appliances, food and beverage, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery have fallen by 19.09%, 17.51%, and 17.21% this year.
Based on this calculation, there is a 96.70% difference in the growth rate between steel, which has the largest increase this year, and household appliances, which has the largest decline this year.
In a longitudinal comparison, this data can rank fifth in the ten years since 2012, which is lower than 138.21% in 2013, 117.19% in 2015, 110.23% in 2020, and 105.13% in 2014.
And it’s just September. If by the end of this year, the gap between the leading and falling industries this year may be further widened, so the structural market is obvious. When the Christians choose industry sectors, The difficulty is greater.
- Market transaction popularity:
Judging from the change in transaction volume this year,Before the Spring Festival from January to February, the turnover of A-shares was at a high level; from March to May, the turnover was relatively sluggish; since July, the turnover of the two cities has increased again and continued to remain above 1 trillion yuan, except for 7. In addition to the 966.5 billion yuan turnover on the 20th, a total of 50 trading days have exceeded one trillion yuan since July, with 38 consecutive trading days exceeding one trillion yuan, both of which rank the second highest in history. The first is to break a trillion in turnover for 99 consecutive trading days from March to August 2015.
However, from the perspective of trading volume, the current trading volume of the two cities has remained between 1 trillion and 1.5 trillion for most of the time, which is still short of the highest single-day turnover of the bull market in 2015 of 2.4 trillion A certain distance.
Judging from the historical data just now, the overall market volatility this year is not that big, but the market is highly differentiated, and the enthusiasm for market transactions is also at a historical high. It can be said that there are many opportunities, but for ordinary investors, it is more difficult to grasp. In this case, how should we deal with it?
First, balance the configuration. May wish to pay more attention to a few main lines, on the one hand, reduce the risk of fluctuations in a single sector, on the other hand, the industry rotates, so that the east side of the fund is not bright and the west side is bright.
Second, insist on holding for a long time. Poor short-term liquidation of funds may be caused by different market styles. The higher the fit between the fund and market hotspots, the higher the short-term returns, but the market style changes so many times that no one can step on the air every time, so you can't simply use short-term returns as heroes. Or choose those funds that have been tested by bulls and bears for long-term holding.
03 Fund tracking and review
In order to facilitate everyone's control of the market, Duoduo has made a special version of the market, major indexes and selected active valuation tables for everyone.
1. The whole market situation
The current market valuation is 42%, and investment opportunities are moderately low. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300th percentile is 78%, which is overvalued; CSI 1000% 32%, underestimated. On the whole, the big and small votes are still divided.
2. Main index valuation
covers the more popular broad-based indexes and industry indexes in the market. The green part represents underestimation, and the current buying risk is low.
Yellow means the valuation is moderate, while red means the valuation is high, and you need to buy carefully. You can adjust your own fixed investment situation according to market conditions.
3. Featured active performance tracking
The above table is the current market’s popular active funds and the average valuation of the entire A-share market. The table will be updated once a day for everyone to know in time. To the position of the invested fund.
Today's popular active funds have more reds and less greens. Semiconductor funds, which have fallen for several days, rebounded sharply.
Only the net value of a few funds dropped slightly during the period, and most of the other funds received dividends. On the whole, funds generally rebounded, and the market industry is still divided.
PS:
The valuation broadcast is for reference only and does not constitute specific investment advice.
Funds are risky, investment needs to be cautious.
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