New construction starts in July dropped by 22% year-on-year, and the cumulative growth rate has entered a negative range. The decline in the area of land purchased in the previous July narrowed by 2.6pts.
◎ text / Crane Research Center
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On the morning of August 16, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the performance of the national economy and real estate industry data from January to July 2021. In general, the real estate market sales and investment growth rate have declined to a certain extent. With the tightening of financing and credit policies, the demand for new home sales has been overdrafted in the short-term. Under the prudence of real estate companies, the year-on-year decline in the area of newly started construction has expanded, and the cumulative year-on-year decline has turned negative. Affected by this, the growth rate of development investment slowed again.
In July, the sales area and value of commercial housing fell by 8.5% and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively, to the lowest in the past year
According to the National Bureau of Statistics: From January to July, the sales area of commercial housing was 1,0648 million square meters, an increase of 21.5% year-on-year. Narrowed by 6.2pts; increased by 14.5% from January to July 2019; commercial housing sales were 10.643 billion yuan, an increase of 30.7%, and the growth rate narrowed by 8.2pts; increased by 28.0% from January to July 2019.
The single-month sales volume hit a new low during the year, falling and staying the same compared to the same period in 2020 and 2019 respectively. In July, the sales area and amount of commercial housing were 133.13 million square meters and 1.3499 billion yuan, down 42% and 40% from the previous month, and both fell to the lowest value in a single month in the previous July. Among them, the sales area of commercial housing fell by 8.5% compared with the same period in 2020, and turned negative for the first time during the year.
The impulse approach of "price-for-volume" by mid-year sales node forward real estate companies and the strict tightening of housing-related credit policies in various places have resulted in short-term overdrafts in the national real estate market. Comparing the changes in sales performance in the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions, it can be seen that the eastern region, which performed well in the first half of the year, was particularly cold. The cumulative year-on-year increase in the sales area of commercial housing in the eastern region from January to July narrowed by 9.2pts compared with the January-June period.It is second only to the Northeast and higher than the national level. Judging from the actual market situation, since the third quarter, with the strict review of credit qualifications and the suspension of second-hand housing loans, the eastern provinces of Hebei, Shandong, and most provinces and cities in the central and western regions have seen case visits and sales flow reduced or even halved. In the short to medium term, with strict credit policies coupled with short-term overdrafts of residents' purchasing power, the year-on-year decline in the sales area and value of commercial housing across the country is particularly likely to expand.
70 city housing prices fell back first-line second-hand housing prices began to narrow the month-on-month increase
According to the national commercial housing sales area and amount estimation, the average sales price of commercial housing in July rose slightly to 10,373 yuan / square meter. After the mid-year sales node, real estate companies generally canceled promotional discounts.
Looking at the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country, the increase in housing prices has dropped significantly, and the increase in first-line and second-hand housing prices has also narrowed. In July, the sales price of newly-built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities increased by 0.4% month-on-month, and the increase was 0.3pts lower than the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou rose by 0.8%, 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively, and the growth rate fell by 0.1, 0.1 and 0.8 pts respectively from the previous month. The sales price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities increased by 0.4% month-on-month, and the increase was 0.3pts lower than the previous month. Among them, Beijing and Shanghai both rose 0.7% month-on-month, and the growth rate fell 0.6 and 0.3 pts respectively from the previous month; Shenzhen fell 0.4%.
In addition, after the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development interviewed some of the hotspot cities with relatively high housing prices in the first half of the year in July, the month-on-month increase in the sales prices of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing in Jinhua, Huizhou, and Xuzhou all declined. Among them, the price increase of new houses in Xuzhou narrowed by 0.5pts from the previous month, and the price of second-hand houses in Huizhou dropped by 0.1% from the previous month.
July new construction starts plummeted by 22% year-on-year
cumulative growth rate entered a negative range
The decline in the area of land purchased in the previous July narrowed by 2.6pts
According to the National Bureau of Statistics: January-July The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8918.8 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%. Among them, the newly started area of houses is 1,18948 million square meters.A decrease of 0.9%; the completed area of houses was 417.82 million square meters, an increase of 25.7%. Among them, the completed residential area was 301.25 million square meters, an increase of 27.2%. The area under construction, newly started, and completed areas increased by -1.2pts, -4.7pts and 0pts from January to June, respectively.
In a single month, the new construction area and the newly started area of houses in July decreased by 47% and 34% respectively from the previous month. Among them, the newly started area of houses was only 176.6 million square meters, a decrease of 21.5% and 12.6% respectively over the same period in the past two years. The growth rate of newly-started housing area in July before dragged down further into a negative range.
Under the “three red lines”, the financing cost of the financing end continues to rise, and the tightening of housing-related credits in various places has repeatedly lengthened the sales collection cycle of housing companies. The growth rate of funds in place for real estate enterprises across the country this year has fallen for 7 consecutive months. Therefore, under the pressure of funds, real estate companies have regained their cautious attitude towards construction, especially new construction plans and schedules, and slowing down construction and installation investment in non-key areas has become a common move.
In addition, in the first half of the year, housing completions, which accounted for a large proportion of construction and installation investment and even the overall development investment, contributed little this month. In July, the newly completed housing area was only 53.01 million square meters, a decrease of 40% from the previous month.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics: From January to July, the area of land purchased by real estate development enterprises was 87.64 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%; the transaction price of land was 512.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.8%. Compared with the January-June period, the decline rates of the two were narrowed by 2.6pts and 0.8pts, respectively. Due to the collective absence of centralized land supply in 22 cities due to policy adjustments in July, third- and fourth-tier cities have become the absolute main transaction force. Driven by the centralized land auctions in hot cities such as Nantong and Changzhou, the reduction in land purchase area and land transaction prices of real estate companies has narrowed to a certain extent, but the scale of the two is still at a historically low level.
July investment increased slightly by 1% year-on-year
weak construction and installation and land purchase
further slowed down the overall investment growth rate
According to the National Bureau of Statistics data: January-July, national real estate development investment 84895 100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, which was 2.3pts narrower than the January-June period; and an increase of 16.5% compared to the January-July period of 2019.The development investment in July alone was 1271.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.8% from the previous month. Compared with 2020 and 2019, it increased by 1.4% and 13.2%, respectively, and the growth rate was narrowed by 4.6pts and 1.8pts respectively from the previous month.
The month-on-month investment scale declined, and the year-on-year and cumulative year-on-year growth rates have sharply narrowed. The reason is that Jianan investment has further declined and Tutuo investment has continued to record lows. As mentioned above, on the one hand, under the environment of both financing and credit tightening, the construction and installation investment represented by new housing construction by real estate companies has further contracted in July, and the progress of housing completion has also lost strong support for investment in the short term; on the other hand 7 Although the monthly land purchase area and the cumulative year-on-year decline of land transaction prices have both narrowed, the scale of investment in Tutuo is still at a historically low level. Therefore, under the two factors, the growth rate of national real estate development investment further declined.
In summary of , we give the following judgments on the market outlook: the real estate industry will continue to play the role of economic stabilizer, the industry sales scale will continue to maintain a double-digit growth rate, and the development investment will maintain a high scale. The growth rate has stabilized. In the second half of the year, real estate companies will adopt a cautious and positive attitude towards the start of construction and land acquisition decisions.
From the perspective of commercial housing sales, the previously overheated cities in the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions have experienced short-term demand overdrafts after the tightening of control policies and credit policies, and the overall growth rate will be dragged down to a certain extent. At the same time, the subsequent supply of new houses will remain at a low level for a long time when the area of land purchased remains low, which will have a certain inhibitory effect on the growth of new house sales.
In terms of land acquisition by real estate companies, depending on the changes in the popularity of land auctions, it is expected that more policy adjustments will be made. On the one hand, after Wuxi and Hangzhou, more cities may usher in premium prices and upgrades in land price control; another On the other hand, under the general direction of ensuring the effective supply of residential land, some cities with high land prices may also moderately relax land auction requirements. At the same time, real estate companies will invest the remaining funds in other potential second, third, and fourth-tier cities. By then, the overall land purchase area is expected to usher in a large rebound, which will once again become a strong support for development investment.
Under the environment of repeated tightening of overall funding, real estate companies will again adopt a cautious attitude towards construction and new construction in the second half of the year, and the start of construction plans for non-core cities and non-hot spots will slow down. Therefore, the overall monthly and cumulative decline in the overall new construction scale may expand.
Based on the judgment that the expected decline of Jian'an investment will expand and Tutuo's investment will continue to be at a historical low level, the two have a negative effect on the overall development investment growth rate, and the subsequent investment growth rate is expected to stabilize.
Typesetting/Jenny
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