Today’s core opinion-various signs before the stock market crash
I have always had the idea that when the weather forecast tells you that it will rain heavily, you might as well take shelter first. , Wait for the rain to stop before you hurry, even if the weather forecast is inaccurate, there is no heavy rain, but there is no loss to you. Many people think that using a quantitative method to predict the market is nonsense and an impossible task. This thing may be an empiricism of everyone, or it is something that everyone can't do by themselves, and thinks that everyone can't do it. Although the prediction is of course more complicated. And it can't be 100% accurate, but basically it can be done with a high probability. Just like people in ancient times and the weather, he would sum up various laws.
Let’s list a few and see if you feel the same.
1) Ants move
Because ants are the closest animals to the ground, they have the ability to feel rain. Generally, ants can know whether there has been rain recently by changing the humidity in the air. Then move the nest from low to high.
2) Earthworms on the road
Earthworms live in damp places. If the earthworms can come out to move, it means that the air has been moist to a certain extent and the wind and rain will definitely come within 24 hours.
3) Toad out of the hole
Toad is afraid of dryness.Because their skin is very brittle. Therefore, under normal conditions, we will only see the toads croaking at night. If it is about to rain, the toads will feel the air damp and will move. This is what the old saying "the toad must go out, it must rain".
4) The dragonfly flies low
Because the air is humid before it rains, the moisture increases, and the thin wings of the dragonfly cannot fly due to the influence of the moisture in the air. High; this time the small flying insects are also flying at low altitudes, and the dragonflies will also focus on foraging.
If you have any experience in rural life, you will feel more or less. The experienced old farmer sees these visions, especially when several occur at the same time, and can basically accurately judge that it will rain heavily soon.
In fact, the stock market is the same. Before each major adjustment, there must be some signs. It's just that these signs are submerged in massive amounts of big data, and ordinary investors don't have the time and ability to explore the hidden laws behind these vast amounts of data. Some old investors, relying on years of firm experience, will sum up some rules, this is a test of experience and talent. The biggest use of big data mining is here. It can greatly shorten the experience accumulation process required for growth through modern means.
[ tomorrow Trader plan -
no
02
weight Pound launch-daily update of the 2 most valuable tables
First of all, let me explain,For big data, there are actually two schools: one is data mining and the other is data presentation. Data mining is to find out its hidden laws and characteristics through massive data analysis to guide future operations. Another genre is called data presentation, that is, it does not perform any processing and sorting on the original data, but just presents it to you through some visualizations and fancy, so that your eyes will shine, wow, so beautiful, in fact, these data are all on major websites. It's easy to get. It just changed the way of presentation.
What I want to do is the first type, the actual combat school. One of the most popular stock trading methods that I admire is called minimal stock trading. Through data mining, the most effective and most practical data is presented. Don't give you a bunch of messy, colorful, but fancy data. It looks very lively, but it is actually useless in stock selection and mainstream selection.
Okay, back to the topic: What about the two most practically valuable tables I want to provide every day? Not much to say, just go to the picture.
The first one is the RPS score chart of the concept section. According to the feedback from netizens, I have specially added the RPS50 column. Now there are 4 periods in total, 5, 10, 20 and 50.
Let me talk about the pain points of the current RPS research on the market?
I’m learning computer. I take data analysis. I try to analyze from my professional point of view. You can see that there are more than 4,000 stocks, but you can see in this section. Those sectors are all a secondary development based on the software of Communication Technology. No matter how you formulate the formula like this, the underlying data used by him is still the data of the communication technology itself, which seems to be two or two in total. Three hundred.
everyone can look at the picture above,You know the problem. You see, according to the concept, such as chip, polysilicon, there are divided according to the type of capital, such as foreign investment background, and according to the price-earnings ratio, such as low price-earnings ratio, and divided by provinces and regions, such as the Shaanxi plate , And according to the increase or decrease of holding points. Therefore, there are many kinds of classification methods. Forcibly put these chaotic classifications together to study, the conclusions drawn can be imagined. In addition, from the perspective of statistics, because your sample size is not enough, A total of only 200-300 such statistics are not very good. . Therefore, our low-level data has a very big problem. Since the basic data is very unreliable, and then you use advanced methods to re-process or dig again, it is all in vain, you are To build a house in the desert, the foundation under you is unstable.
So to sum up, the current rps sector research has two pain points:
1) The sample size is too small, if the sample size is too small according to a total of 200-300
2) In each section, various classification methods are mixed and classified, and there is no uniformity. This kind of basic data processing things, the effect can be imagined. And our individual stocks, why is it so good? Because individual stocks are all standardized, they are all more than 4,000 stocks that are actually traded in our market, and their standards are very uniform.
Next, why do I say that my research has made a major breakthrough? First of all, I re-categorized this classification method according to a unified concept, breaking the original classification method based on different industry concepts, regions, and what is reported. I unified it and is closer to actual combat. The concept of classification is carried out, and from this point, the division of the sector is achieved at a time.The second is the problem of sample size. As I said just now, according to the current classification of communications, even if you add various sectors and various classification methods together, its sample size is two to three hundred. One, but after my big data mining, I classified according to his concept which is closer to actual combat. At present, the sample size of this sector has reached 952. This is my sector classification, close to actual combat.
Now let’s take a screenshot: there are a total of 952 conceptual sections that are closest to actual combat, and there is no situation that they are mixed with the chaotic classification methods such as regions. According to the feedback from netizens, I have specially added the RPS50 column. Now there are 4 cycles in total, 5, 10, 20 and 50.
, we have finished talking about RPS now. Let me talk about another actual combat table:
The actual meaning of each column in the table
brp2
brp_brp0 Second-stage stocks, and we can only buy second-stage stocks if we want to buy them. But here comes the problem. I screened on June 12th. A total of more than 500 stocks were in the second stage. Which specific is worth buying ? How to choose the best? This is the question we need to answer in this section.
As you can see, there are 11 columns in my table design except for code, name and concept.Let's talk about these 11 columns in detail below?
1. First of all, ROE, friends who have some stock trading experience should have heard of this indicator. The full name of ROE is called return on equity. : Someone once asked Buffett , if only one indicator can be selected for investment, what will it use? Buffett did not hesitate to say ROE at that time. This shows the importance of this indicator.
2. There are three columns behind, which correspond to the net profit margins of the last three financial reporting seasons. Why is this important? The great master Mark once said in the book. Shareholders who have read the book "Stock Magician" know that there is a pattern described in the book: full speed forward: code 33. It means that if the company's sales growth is accelerating, the profit margin is also increasing. The combination of the two will ignite net profits and promote explosive growth in stock prices. The combined effect of the two is far better than the single effect. The best case for net profit growth at full speed is accelerated sales growth and a simultaneous increase in profit margins.
3. There are two columns after the RPS value, which are 250 days and 120 days. This RPS indicator is very important. Simply put, it is the relative strength of the stock. This indicator is mentioned in several classic books, so you can open it. It is Dr. Tao who has carried forward this indicator, a great master whom I admire very much. In fact, the quantification work I have done, to put it simply, is to quantify the theories of several masters and use big data to quantify them. The objects of research are the big A shares that we think about day and night.
4. The next column is the distance from the highest price in a year. This is very easy to understand, literally meaning, and very valuable for reference.
5. After the five-year line, 4 years are positive. This is based on the good student theory, which has a strong practical value for our A shares. If you have been very healthy in recent years and you are a good student, then the probability of continuing to take high scores next year will be much higher than that of junk students.
6. Followed by the net profit margin . Let me explain in detail what is a profit fault. The net profit gap is due to the official report of the performance forecast and the performance bulletin that day, the announcement of the company's performance has increased, and the stock price is rushed to raise the gap caused by the gap. There are four regular performance reports every year: quarterly report, mid-term report, third quarterly report, and annual report. Each performance report period has performance forecasts, performance quick reports, periodic reports and other nodes. Different nodes have more obvious opportunities for making money than expected individual stocks. Therefore, the net profit gap is a market that runs through the whole year. It is a market that is determined every year. In addition, the net profit gap requires fewer stocks to pay attention to. It is a time-consuming and profitable operation mode. The same pattern also comes from the book "Stock Market Magician".
6. The following is the situation where well-known funds hold and increase positions. Fund companies have strong investment and research capabilities, and many elite talents from higher education institutions. They have strict criteria for the selection of individual stocks and avoid various risks to the greatest extent. Their strong investment and research capabilities are beyond the reach of our retail friends. Star funds such as Gao Yi and Hillhouse Capital have been tested in the market for many years, and their shareholding trends have a strong reference value.
7. Followed by the stock situation of foreign capital Masukura. This data is updated daily. Northbound funds are also called smart money. Their every move is worth studying. Their holding philosophy is to hold for a long time and continue to push up the promising stocks. Several big bull stocks of our A shares in history have been continuously bought by Northbound funds
.
