mentions lithography machine , and we have a big gap in our impression. However, lithography machines actually have a distinction between the front and the back path. Chip manufacturing uses front path lithography machines, and chip packaging uses back path lithography machines. Our gap is mainly in the front path. Our Shanghai Microelectronics on the
post-dollar machine is already the world's leading level, but the front-dollar lithography machine is mainly monopolized by ASML, Nikon and Canon . In particular, ASML also monopolizes high-end EUV lithography machines, and now it is starting to go against the trend again! How strong is
?
lithography machines are classified according to light source, mainly divided into three categories: EUV, DUV, and UV, and the corresponding ones are basically high-end, mid-end and low-end. EUV can be used in 7-3nm process, DUV can be used in 7-180nm, and UV is used in 180nm or above.
DUV lithography machines are divided into three categories: ArFi, ArF, and KrF. UV lithography machines include i-Line, h-Line, g-Line, etc.
From the global sales of semiconductor front-door lithography machines at the end of 2021, we can see how strong ASML is in the global lithography machine field. Our Shanghai Microelectronics is only 90nm in the front road and is not sold globally, so we will not count for the time being.
From the statistical data, ASML is a leader and deserves to be the overlord of lithography machines. Last year, a total of 478 lithography machines were shipped worldwide, and ASML shipped 309 units, accounting for 65%, compared with Nikon 6% and Canon 29%. What’s more powerful is that ASML accounts for 100% of the market for high-end EUVs, and mid-range DUVs are also most markets, among which ArFi accounts for 96% and ArF accounts for 88%. Nikon and Canon do not ship much in the middle, mainly focusing on the low-end.
From this we can see that ASML basically monopolizes the mid-to-high-end lithography machine market, so it has attracted much attention in recent years.
target is so high
The global chip shortage problem in the past two years has caused the wafer factory to be able to meet the demand even if it is fully loaded, so they began to invest in and expand production. Coupled with the impact of the ban on chip in the US, various places have begun to build factories to improve local chip manufacturing.
According to data from relevant institutions, 41 wafer fabs will be built around the world from 2022 to 2025. So many fabs will inevitably bring greater equipment demand, especially lithography machines, which are indispensable and most important in the chip manufacturing process.
Therefore, as the largest supplier of the global lithography machine market, ASML said it will increase its production capacity year by year to meet demand.
ASML disclosed its lithography machine expansion plan at the first quarter financial report meeting this year, saying that it will ship 90 EUVs and 600 DUVs annually in 2025. However, the chip situation has begun to decline since this year, from chip shortage to oversupply.
Due to this situation, the top ten semiconductor manufacturers have recently lowered their capital expenditure this year or next year, totaling US$18.6 billion. Even TSMC, ASML's largest customer, is no exception, and it also stated that it will shut down four EUVs.
Therefore, at the recent third-quarter financial report meeting, ASML stated that the expansion plan for the lithography machine is not yet confirmed. There have been a long time to calculate behind
. I didn’t expect that it would take long before, ASML announced a capacity improvement plan again at the investors’ daily meeting held recently. It is expected that it will achieve annual production capacity of 90 EUVs and 600 DUVs from 2025 to 2026, which is an additional 2026 compared to before.
basically means that it can be postponed for one year to achieve this goal. It seems that ASML is still affected by the downward trend.
At this meeting, the capacity plan for NA EUV was also clarified, and 20 annual shipments are expected to be achieved from 2027 to 2028. The goal is indeed quite large. The total number of various lithography machines worldwide in 2021 is only 478. Can ASML be achieved in a few years? The reason why
ASML sets such a goal first is to win the favor of investors and gain greater investment. Secondly, it is optimistic about future growth trends. ASML believes that the current downward trend is temporary and long-term demand is still optimistic.
More importantly, ASML is very optimistic about the growth of the mainland market and will continue to grow strongly in the next few years. According to SEMI statistics, the speed of building high-end wafer fabs in mainland China is the world's largest, and 31 mature wafer fabs are expected to be built by 2024.
will bring about a considerable demand for DUV lithography machines, which is probably one of the important reasons for ASML to expand production of DUVs.
Some time ago, Nikon announced that the shipment of lithography machines will increase by more than three times by 2026, and Canon will invest 50 billion yen to build a new lithography machine factory. In the future, both of these companies want to expand the market share of in the mainland , so how could ASML remain indifferent?
is precisely because ASML has been laid out in the mainland for a long time, so it goes against the trend and is full of confidence! However, this was also believed by foreign media that ASML was determined to ship DUVs regardless of obstruction, so the challenge began!
