Concern｜The consequences of chip shortage are serious, global automakers will lose 210 billion US dollars this year

Text: Understand the car emperor original Xing Qiuhong

[ understand the car emperor original industry] September 23, according to consulting company Alixpartners (Alixpartners) news, this year due to chip shortages and rising raw material costs, global automobile manufacturing The company may lose 210 billion U.S. dollars and reduce production of 7.7 million vehicles throughout the year. These two figures are about twice the forecast in May of this year.

This year due to chip shortages and rising raw material costs, global automakers may lose US$210 billion.

In the latest forecast report, Arrow Platinum stated that the shortage of chips is only part of the supply chain problem. The rising prices of raw materials such as steel and plastic resin are pushing up the cost of cars, causing many car companies to cut production.

At the beginning of the year, both automakers and component manufacturers believe that the shortage of raw materials and chips will be alleviated by the end of the year. In the last few months of 2021, the problem of chip shortages has not been alleviated, and commodity prices have also risen.

Currently in the US market, the dealer’s inventory is about 20 days, less than half of the normal level.

Dan Hearsch, managing director of Arrow's automotive business, said: “Initially we thought that the auto market would return to normal in the fourth quarter and return to normal trading levels, but for now, this is not the case. It will happen.” US IHS Markit (Esson Huamai) lowered its expectations for the 2022 auto market last week.

Currently in the US market, dealers’ inventory is about 20 days, less than half of the normal level. The domestic market is fairly stable. In August 2021, the auto dealer inventory warning index was 51.7%, the lowest in 2021, but the inventory warning index was still 1.7 percentage points above the warning line.

The inventory index of domestic auto dealers is still above the warning line.

This shows that the inventory pressure of passenger cars has not disappeared, but it is slightly smaller than before. Even if there is a shortage of cores, the overall supply of domestic passenger cars is still sufficient.