"In 2022, it feels like it's faster than other years. I worked from home for a few months, and when I went out, I suddenly realized that the plan was next year." Just as the twenty policies were actually implemented, the words of a boss at the dinner table resonated with everyone on the table.
ended in the first 11 months. The Chinese automobile market this year is very complicated, with sadness and joy. Fortunately, the rebound in the second half of this year is good, and the jumpy development of BYD gives people a look at the prospects. At the same time, China has quietly become the world's second largest automobile exporter (breaking through 300,000 units in the first eight months of this year, surpassing Germany and second only to Japan). Sadly, the automobile industry is undergoing a major transformation, and the future of many automobile companies is unpredictable. Many automobile companies may slowly withdraw from your and my life, and that is your and my youth. According to statistics, since 2019, China has had passenger car production qualifications from more than 90 companies to more than 60 today, and some zombie car companies ( Lifan , Zotye, etc.). In addition, after three years of the epidemic, many people's expectations for the future are constantly changing. No one knows what the future will be, which is anxiety.
So, it is worth exploring the overall performance of the Chinese auto market today. As the largest integrator of the industry and the core category of bulk consumer goods, automobiles are both a key item that can significantly improve human life quality and a weather vane for the future economy.
Global car sales fell by 2%, and China is likely to be flat in the first half of the year. Due to the epidemic, the trend of China's auto market is constantly going downward, and there are He Xiaopeng , Yu Chengdong and others said on social media that "the Chinese automobile industry may face a shutdown" and the situation has changed. Following the economic conference, the national purchase tax halving policy began to be implemented, and starting from June, automobile sales have increased significantly. However, with the further sudden outbreak of the epidemic, this year's Golden September and Silver October are insufficient, and the data are further summarized, and the decline in automobile sales this year is relatively obvious.
At present, sales in November have not yet been released, but we can basically infer clues from the relevant information of key institutions. On December 1, Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association, issued a statement that China's automobile accounted for 37% of the global share in October, and China's automobile accounted for 33% of the global share from January to October. The global sales figure from January to October was 65.91 million units. According to this, the sales figure from January to October in China was about 21.75 million units, with an average of about 2.2 million units per month. The sales figures that have been released in November and December in the process, calculated based on the highs in previous years, should be at most about 5 million units in the two months. So combined, China's automobile sales figure should be between 26 million and 27 million units. In 2021, the relevant data of China Automobile was 26.275 million units. So, basically achieving equality.
Relying on the rapid efforts in the second half of the year, China has basically made a big reversal compared with the world, and global sales of from January to October fell by 2% year-on-year compared with .
Behind the sales and financial reports of car companies, the stories that ordinary people cannot see
. According to the performance of major car companies, the impression of ordinary people should be "BYD sells well, Tesla sells well, and China's new forces sells well, Volkswagen Toyota , etc. are relatively average." This is basically the case in terms of appearance, but it is just a basic cognition and cannot withstand too in-depth consideration.
The current pattern is that there is almost no in the market with one trick . Technology companies focusing on intelligent driving were not long ago viewed by in the capital market. The stock price of , including Wei Xiaoli and Tesla, has dropped significantly. At the same time, Leapmotor has always been breaking the issue price after the listing of Hong Kong stock . The same is true for the tiny pure electric scooter market led by Wuling. The profit of of bicycles is relatively meager. Once there are some slight changes in the policy or there are minor changes in the supply chain, its sustainability is questionable. It is reported that the profit of MINIEV of Wuling Hongguang MINIEV is about 500 yuan, and this is also a leader in the industry.
is being gradually replaced by traditional fuel vehicles that are clearly downward. In the data of China Automobile Dealers Association , the sales of fuel vehicles from January to October decreased by 15% year-on-year. As the penetration rate of new energy vehicle further increased, the sales of fuel vehicles will obviously continue to decline. The PHEV market driven by BYD DM-i is by no means blue ocean . BYD has been in the field of Sandian self-developed assets for nearly 10 years. Other car companies have encountered challenges in the field of cost reduction on a large scale. From the financial report, it can be seen that BYD's profitability is still far from that of traditional fuel vehicles. In the financial report from January to September, BYD's total revenue was 267.688 billion yuan, profit was 9.311 billion yuan, and sales were 1.1753 million vehicles. In comparison, Great Wall Motors html's revenue from from November to September was 99.48 billion yuan, but its profit was 8.149 billion yuan, which can clearly see the contrast.
So, there are actually not many car companies that have absolute advantages. In addition to the few giants that are rapidly rising in the new energy field, other voices are still in the hands of traditional giants, such as the familiar Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, Nissan , BMW , Mercedes-Benz , Geely , Geely , Changan , Great Wall, etc.
In addition, further exploration of traditional giants can be seen that the right to speak is more in the hands of large groups, and there is a very obvious pattern of "strong in the south and weak in the north". There are more than 60 qualified car companies in the market, and in fact, more than 50 are common in the market. However, from January to October this year, the total sales of the top 10 car companies was 18.983 million vehicles, accounting for 86.4% of the total sales. In other words, other car companies sold only 2.99 million new cars in the first 10 months, with an average of only 299,000 cars per month.
The situation of strong south and weak north can be seen from the company's sales target completion rate. Some institutions have analyzed the sales target completion of major China Automobile Groups. As of the end of October, BYD has achieved a target of 1.5 million vehicles exceeding 93%, which exceeds expectations. The GAC Group , which has Toyota, Honda, Trumpchi, and Aian, has a completion rate of 84.8%, and the completion rate of 2.43 million vehicles throughout the year is basically a foregone conclusion. The other large groups are within 80%, and the FAW , SAIC, Changan, and BAIC exceeds 70%, while Geely, Chery , and Great Wall are all below 70%.
The performance of new forces is not as impressive as the frequent voices in the marketing field. Also judging from the sales targets set by enterprises at the end of 2021 and early 2022, the actual actions of many enterprises are significantly lower than expected.
NIO targets 150,000 vehicles, with sales in November reaching a new high of 14,178 vehicles, and a total of 106,700 vehicles were delivered from January to November. It is difficult to achieve the set goal, but the overall growth trend is acceptable;
Xiaopeng targets 250,000 vehicles, with sales from January to November 109,500 vehicles, winning the new trend in the first half of the year After winning sales champion and having obvious advantages, it was weak in the second half of the year. However, in the case of unsatisfactory sales, after He Xiaopeng completed the reform of the internal system of the enterprise, the financial report was released, and the stock price rose significantly, and the capital market's expectations for it became stronger; the ideal target for
is 200,000 vehicles, and it also set a single-month record of 15,034 vehicles in November, but it is obvious that its sales target this year cannot be achieved, with a cumulative sales from January to November of 112,000 vehicles. In the marketing field, there are many ideal highlights, but in fact, it cannot effectively match the limelight when it comes to real market data;
Nezha's goal is 150,000 vehicles, and currently 144,200 vehicles have been completed. So from the data point of view, its goal of completing is basically a foregone conclusion. However, recently, some media used compulsory motor vehicle insurance to compare the sales of Nezha Automobile. Nezha Automobile fell into the "selling volume injection" incident;
Zero Race's target is 120,000 vehicles, currently 102,600 vehicles are completed, and it is expected to achieve the annual target, but it is worth noting that the overall sales quality of Zero Race has declined.Previously, its sales composition was that the Leap Race C11 with a price of more than 100,000 yuan and the Leap Race T03 with a price of more than 100,000 yuan were basically 55 yuan, but now the sales volume is mainly supported by the relatively cheaper Leap Race T03; the target of
3 Zekr is 70,000 vehicles, and 66,611 vehicles have been completed. The sales volume in December can be completed as long as more than 3,500 vehicles; the target of
Question World is 300,000 vehicles, and 66,037 vehicles are currently completed, and there is no hope from the 300,000 vehicles mentioned earlier.
In the marketing field, major new forces often use monthly sales of over 10,000/20,000 as the core language to spread. Now, looking at the actual performance, there are contrasts and gaps. In addition, in the new force section, we will face another topic next, from 0 to 100,000 vehicles sold annually, and the trajectory has been developed by Wei Xiaoli and others, which is worth referring to and learning. However, the current market exploration is still blank, not how to sell several cars, but the company's system transformation project. The production side must face cost reduction and avoid being choked, the sales side must face fierce market challenges, while the corporate thinking side must have its own independence that is unlikely to be replaced. Once it falls into a melee, it will cause consumers' cognition to be deviated, which will eventually lead to the differentiation of market share .
For example, in recent years, more and more car companies have begun to use intelligent driving as a breakthrough in consumer awareness, and companies such as Tesla, Xiaopeng, NIO, and Ideal have also become the best among them. However, the current glass ceiling cannot be broken. The national regulations and policies have not been further implemented, so car companies can only continue to reconcile in L2.99999, and ultimately give consumers the sense that "there are differences between each company, but not that much." Whether
is terrible or not depends on the used car and 4S store system
In short, the current market trend is that the leading companies have lived a very good life in a very small number of days, such as Tesla and BYD. They have faced challenges, but they are not big. Tesla's challenge is that the stock price continues to decline. The capital market found that "it has no ability to change the market. After all, global sales are only one million units at present." The expectations for it are getting lower and lower, so there are major price cuts in the United States (a decline of about 30,000 yuan), price drops in the Chinese market and promotions.
What BYD has to face is to increase its production capacity so that it can achieve more than 3 million units per year and higher 2023 goals, and also maintain technological iteration to ensure its advantages when facing the transformation of traditional car companies.
For leading car companies, life is not as good as before, but it is not particularly difficult. From the sales of large automobile groups mentioned above, we can see that even Geely and Chery, whose task completion rate is less than 70%, their sales in January-October exceeded 1 million units.
. For car companies that are not originally mainstream, the current situation is relatively miserable and they are facing great pressure. Because the pressure in the automobile market has a transmission process. When consumption changes essentially, large enterprises will take the lead in under pressure. If they can withstand it, the pressure on lower-level enterprises will not be great. But what is obvious is that among the three major transformations of intelligence, electrification and networking, the market share of giants such as BBA has been snatched away by new forces by nearly 20%, from nearly 80% of the market share in 2019 to 50%-55% today. The same is true for joint venture brands. In the second half of this year, Chinese brands finally surpassed , joint venture car , which is also a snatch of share.
The key node is that Volkswagen, Toyota, and Honda all have to accelerate their transformation. Whoever transforms slowly or does not have strong market uniqueness will be chased and taken away by the rise and fall.
Of course, the most under pressure are the lower-level sales channels, second-hand car circulation and other fields.
Except for a few new forces, the lower sales channels of other car companies are all 4S store models. In the competition in the traditional era, a lot of manpower, financial resources and material resources have been spent to create.But under the epidemic, most 4S stores are facing situations such as "lockdown", "low traffic", "consumers' desire to buy cars", and "unsmooth vehicle circulation". According to the latest news, the car dealer inventory index is now in a very dangerous position because of its sales in November.
On December 1, in the "China Auto Dealer Inventory Warning Index Survey" released by Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealer Association, the automobile dealer inventory index exceeded 60%, close to the state when the epidemic was the worst in April this year. At the same time, the survey also pointed out that more than 70% of 4S stores cannot complete the original sales tasks. For example, more than 40% of 4S stores have experienced closures, and the closing time is basically more than two weeks. The current situation is that car companies are seeking to achieve the highest sales possible in the time frame of 2022 to accumulate strength for the next 2023. However, the 4S store has limited pressure capacity. The most likely situation in December this year is that "car companies continue to suppress inventory, but 4S stores cannot sell them at all."
cannot be sold, which means that the real meaning of the upper-level numbers is limited.
At the same time, another market under pressure is the second-hand car circulation field.
The main line of economic policy this year is to protect new cars, so a series of policy support is mainly about new cars. Although second-hand cars have ushered in a major benefit this year of "release of the National Five restrictions on moving around", the concept of consumers buying new ones rather than old ones has reduced the effect. On December 1, the China Automobile Dealer Association released the in-depth analysis report of the national used car market in October 2022. The overall performance of used cars was lower than expected. In October, the national second-hand car market transaction volume was only 1.3518 million, with a transaction volume falling by 8.98% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 7.18%, and the transaction amount was 84.446 billion yuan. At the same time, in November 2022, which has ended, the expected second-hand car transaction volume is about 1.27 million, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5% from November 2021.
is written in the last
So, back to the main topic, is the Chinese auto market in 2022 terrible? From the upper level, it is not too miserable. The overall market figure is expected to be the same as in 2021. At the same time, most of the relevant performances of the giants are in line with expectations, and the entire market has not encountered a significant reduction in fluctuation. This is significantly better than the Chinese automobile market in 2008. In that year, my country's automobile production and sales were only 9.3451 million and 9.3805 million respectively, down 16.81% and 15.14% from 2007, and the growth rate was also the lowest since 1999, lower than 10%.
However, the worries in the lower level are also very clear. The sales dilemma faced by the 4S store dealer system and the continuous decline in the used car market all reflect topics such as poor circulation between consumption and production, so many companies are calling for the halving of the purchase tax to continue in 2023.
At the same time, car companies are basically at the level of "crossing the river by feeling the stones". With the establishment of a new form of market and the changes in consumption patterns, the applicability of many traditional logics is questionable.
