022 has the last two months. Can China Automobile continue its growth in the third quarter and will it end perfectly in the fourth quarter? With this problem, the Auto Commune joined hands with Volkswagen to talk about cars, Tiantian Auto and Auto Research Society presented a large amount of data and facts and began a big prediction of "life and death".
Starting from the local performance of four cities, "find the pulse and fortune-telling". Is it a traditional fuel vehicle that ended gloriously after enjoying the glory of the fourth quarter? Or is the decline in new energy coming soon, and the fourth quarter has become the turning point for high growth in new energy? In the fourth quarter, who will be king and who will defeat the bandit?
From a data perspective, China's auto market grew by 8% in the first quarter, with a sharp turnaround and a negative growth of more than 40% in the second quarter, and a counterattack in the third quarter began to grow by more than 25%. The auto market's strong recovery in the third quarter was full of vitality, with wholesale volume increasing by 14% and retail increasing by 27%.
Compared with the slow recovery of the overall auto market, the Chinese new energy vehicle market has grown strongly. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September, China's production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 755,000 and 708,000 respectively, an increase of 110% and 93.9% year-on-year respectively. From January to September 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 4.717 million and 4.567 million respectively, with a market share of 23.5%.
At the same time, policies that benefit the auto market are in the final stage, such as the purchase tax subsidy of 60 billion yuan, the license plates for PHEV models in Shanghai, and the national subsidies and local subsidies for electric vehicles will have on the local auto markets in the fourth quarter?
Only the world of channel injury reached
Start with the small fluctuation of the Beijing market. Tiantian Auto predicts that the situation in the past few months or even the next two months should be similar to last year because the Beijing retail market has unique attributes. First of all, Beijing is not a hungry market, and secondly, the total amount of licenses is controlled. This has led to the fact that the Beijing market is not affected by policies and other policies.
The luxury cars in Beijing are still developing steadily, but models between 100,000 and 200,000 are not easy to sell in Beijing. It is worth noting that Beijing's extended range and plug-in hybrid markets are gradually rising. This has certain similarity with the Shanghai market, because local control over the total amount of licenses and when PHEV gives green cards, it will definitely have a certain positive push to sales, making PHEV the fastest growing market in the past two years.
Volkswagen Kanche believes that if you want to predict the fourth quarter, you should look at it from the three ends, namely the supply side, the demand side and the channel side. First of all, the demand side is that purchase tax halving and new energy subsidies are indeed a good stimulus for consumers, so it is conservatively estimated that the fourth quarter will maintain a 5% growth.
html From November to September, the wholesale data of passenger cars increased by 14.1%, but the retail data increased by only 2.4%. The manufacturer's production capacity of is not a problem, and the wholesale volume is not a problem. 's year-on-year growth in is very good, but the retail volume is weak, which proves that the rest are stuck in the channels, and the channels are resisting pressure.
supply side continuously supplies cars to the channel side, but the actual sales ability of the channel is no longer so strong. Changsha has a variety of local channels, but it is also fragile. When too much accumulation accumulates to survive, many channels will have survival problems, which will also backfire on the entire auto market. Therefore, the wholesale data and output data seem to be prosperous, but from the terminal situation, it is actually not that optimistic.
Confidence fades, how does the market grow?
Since October this year is different from last year and the previous year, October this year is the strictest year in the three years of epidemic prevention and control, and the economic foundation determines the confidence in automobile consumption.
, all four are pessimistic about their performance in the fourth quarter, because first of all, the overall environment is swallowing up consumer confidence. Volkswagen jokes about cars, and 57.1 billion deposits flow into banks every day, which means that consumers are more worried about work, health, and living security. As for automobiles, the bulk consumer of , , then consumers' pessimism about the future will also directly affect the confidence of automobile consumption.
According to relevant surveys by the China Passenger Car Association, only 30% of car companies remain optimistic about October and the entire fourth quarter, 9% remained neutral, and 61% were pessimistic, which also set the lowest confidence value since Shanghai was lifted on June 1.
If the market, industry and consumer confidence are a joint relationship, then from another perspective, the housing market, stock market and auto market are also very correlated.
The stock market fell by more than 10% throughout October. The real estate market is even more serious. As the weather vane of China's real estate, Shanghai has seen a large number of luxury houses selling in October this year, especially in the past two weeks. The once relatively stable second-hand housing market is also loosening, and some real estate projects have even begun to move downward.
So the car market related to it will naturally show a similar trend. Not only second-hand houses, but second-hand cars have been falling for more than half a year, and it can be seen that the momentum of the market has declined severely. Now confidence is indeed more important than gold.
In addition, it can also be seen from my country's internal and external circulation. In the first three quarters of this year, my country's total import and export value was 31.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.9% over the same period last year. Among them, exports were 17.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.8%. Imports were 13.44 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2%. The trade surplus was 4.23 trillion yuan, expanding by 53.7%.
This shows that the potential of the internal cycle in China's two cycles has not been fully restored and stimulated. On the contrary, OEMs have tried their best to promote "going out" and make exports, which has indeed achieved their current growth prospects.
Hope in pessimism
Auto Commune mentioned the positive and negative factors that affected automobile consumption in the last two months, the biggest uncertainty is the impact of the epidemic on the economy. The positive factors are the consumption habits of buying cars before the New Year in China, as well as the obvious tail-strike effect in the fuel car, PHEV and pure electric car markets. Therefore, the Auto Commune is more optimistic about the predictions for the remaining two months. But the first quarter of next year, even the whole year, is indeed not optimistic.
From a national macro perspective, the country will invest in several key areas under the new leadership team and the new five-year plan. One is the national strategic infrastructure construction, the second is the structural adjustment of the industry from quantity to quality, the third is the "bottleneck" high-tech technology, the fourth is the investment in aerospace and military industry, and finally the technological development of common prosperity. It is precisely because when the country enters the investment period, market consumption generally has a lag period of two to three years, so it is difficult for market consumption to perform well in two to three years.
From the perspective of the market segment, there have indeed appeared some new growth hotspots in the market this year. Since August, the growth rate of PHEV has been significantly ahead of electric vehicles. PHEV represented by BYD has achieved an increase of more than 115%. Moreover, PHEVs have more PHEV models like Great Wall, Geely , Changan , and a large number of PHEV models including Chery , so the PHEV market is still relatively optimistic.
Although the PHEV has increased significantly, the total volume still accounts for only one-third of electric vehicles. At the same time, the growth rate of pure electric vehicles in the new energy field is declining, from a 100% increase in the third quarter to about 80%. When the auto market was relatively sluggish in the second quarter, the pure electric market was full of momentum and continued its upward trend in the third quarter. However, in the first month of the fourth quarter, the growth rate of pure electric showed a significant decline.
This may be because when consumers rationally recover the freshness of new energy vehicle , they pay attention to the hard power of the product's technical quality, product planning ability, and market channel service ability. Who can win the decisive battle at the end of this year and next year is still uncertain, but we can see that some leading companies such as BYD, Great Wall, Changan, etc. have been looking for the growth direction of the industry in difficulties.
The automotive industry's own big capital, high technology, high GDP characteristics mean that China will still introduce many favorable policies on the consumer side, including finance, industrial policies, taxation, and even future parking infrastructure. The entire automobile market next year may recover in an orderly manner, and wholesale data will continue to move forward in exports.
022 is a magnificent year for China's automobile industry. China's automobiles have overcome obstacles and actively sought new growth space in the crisis. Although everyone is pessimistic about the performance of the car market in the fourth quarter during the live broadcast, they are optimistic about the development of China's automobile industry. Pessimism is foresight, and optimism is wisdom. Only by overcoming many difficulties and continuing to ride the wind and waves can you see the dawn.
