After Zhang Zhongmou announced that he would increase TSMC's total investment in building factories in the United States to US$40 billion and transfer 3nm process chip production capacity to the United States, public opinion generally believed that TSMC was on the road to being s

After Zhang Zhongmou announced that TSMC's total investment in building factories in the United States would increase to US$40 billion and transfer the production capacity of 3nm process chips to the United States, public opinion generally believed that TSMC was on the road to being swallowed up by US companies, and people on the island of Taiwan were even more worried about TSMC's series of operations. Just as people thought that TSMC would lose its competitiveness and gradually evolved into "MIC", TSMC made another major decision: to keep the 2nm and 1nm process capacity in Taiwan's headquarters

TSMC bets on both ends, how should we control the balance?

The difficult decision

TSMC chose to build a factory in the United States rather than being invited, it is better to describe it as "coercion". Arizona factory switches to a 4nm process production line. In addition to the construction costs of the subsequent second phase of the project, TSMC's investment in the United States will reach US$40 billion, which does not count the cost of talent output and equipment transportation. However, judging from the US's attitude, TSMC will only get the lowest amount of factory construction subsidies in the end.

TSMC's move to build a factory in the United States has caused general concerns among the people on the island of Taiwan. Currently, the 4nm and 3nm processes are both world-leading high-end processes. Once the production capacity is transferred to the United States, it will further compress TSMC's own market share , which will have a negative impact on the island's economy. In fact, Zhang Zhongmou knew very well that TSMC went to the United States to build a factory is tantamount to "striving to the tiger", but it was because the company had to choose to compromise due to its dependence on the US market.

In this capacity transfer, all funds, talents and equipment are borne by TSMC, which fully demonstrates that the US and TSMC are in a state of harmony and the so-called financial subsidy is just a bait. Some time ago, TSMC had already chartered a flight to transport hundreds of engineers to American factories, and the targets also included the families and even pets of these engineers. After the family relocates, these engineers will work in the United States, which is also a resource that the United States has always coveted.

reserved back-up

Just as people feel endless pessimistic about TSMC's future, a major decision by TSMC has caused a stir in the global chip market. The company decided to place the 2nm and 1nm process chip tasks in Taiwan's Longtan Technology Industrial Park. According to TSMC's plan, 2nm chip mass production will be realized in Taiwan by 2025. By 2027, 1nm chip production capacity will also remain in Taiwan Province. After the transfer of the 4nm and 3nm chip production capacity in the United States, TSMC has left itself a way out.

If TSMC continues to control the production capacity of 2nm and 1nm chips, it will have more bargaining chips for negotiations with the US side. As traditional chip manufacturing processes gradually approach their limits, companies that master processes 1nm or above have more say. The capacity transferred by TSMC this time may become backward production capacity in the next few years, and the core production capacity left behind can be seen as TSMC's unique ability to prevent US companies from "stealing their homes".

Of course, the thing that the United States values ​​most in this transaction is not TSMC's production capacity in 3 or 4nm chips, but related scientific and technological talents that are constantly being sent to the United States. I believe the United States will not be surprised by the backup that TSMC has left behind. There is no benefit in transferring production capacity to the United States. In addition to receiving a certain amount of subsidies, it also guarantees TSMC's orders in the United States, and at least it can overcome the current crisis.

market trend

Whether it is going to the United States to build a factory or keep the core production capacity in Taiwan Province, TSMC's various actions are trying to save orders. After all, there is no demand, everything is equal to zero. TSMC bets on both the United States and Taiwan to obtain more resources and orders. Once the United States completely stops purchasing chips produced by TSMC, at least the company will have a backup plan in Taiwan. No matter how coercive and tempted the US side, TSMC will never move its headquarters to the United States.

semiconductor industry is the cornerstone of TSMC's survival. As an private enterprise , scientifically allocating chip production capacity and matching global market demand is the strategic task of the enterprise.TSMC's share in the US chip market will only get lower and lower, and this time, investing in the US is a completely trap. As the global chip industry ushers in new changes, TSMC will face not only the problem of capacity allocation in the future, but also whether the technology in its hands can adapt to market demand is probably an unknown.

This time, TSMC went to the United States to build a factory is an unfair transaction for the United States to take advantage of its own market advantages. The United States not only received US$40 billion in investment, but also all equipment, talents, and production lines were handed over by TSMC, which can be said to be a living. TSMC has only received some subsidies and relatively stable market orders, and is able to survive the current cold winter of the chip market.

After the mass production of 1nm process chips, traditional chips will fall into a growth bottleneck period, and the global chip industry may usher in historic changes. Keeping TSMC's core production capacity in Taiwan is not a backhand that can rest assured.