Tesla released the latest version of Optimus robot on AI Day 2022, which can realize complex movements such as upright walking, handling, and sprinkling water. Specifically:
1) Hardware: Movement is achieved through the reducer + sensor. The whole body contains 50 degrees of freedom, 28 torso, and 11 degrees of freedom each of the hands. At the same time, the structure is optimized through bionic technology to improve reliability.
2) Power system: Equipped with a central battery pack, it will maintain the robot's work all day long; and in order to reduce the number of components and power consumption, Tesla has concentrated some sensors and charging and discharging functions on the power system.
3) motion control : Equipped with the same FSD computing system as Tesla car , and combined with the visual processing and sensing technology of autonomous driving to ensure that the robot maintains good posture and gait. At the same time, keyframe analysis of human actions is carried out, and then mapped to the robot using algorithms to achieve better trajectory planning.
technology + cost reasons still need to wait for mass production, but the future is promising:
In the short term, we judge that Opitmus mass production still needs to wait for, mainly due to two reasons: 1) There are still technical problems: According to the disclosure of the technicians at the venue, the balance of Opitmus still needs to be solved, which may take 18-36 months of development; 2) The cost remains high: Optimus contains 50 degrees of freedom, calculated from the perspective of the reducer alone, assuming the average price of the reducer is 1,000 yuan, the cost of the reducer is as high as 50,000 yuan.
Although humanoid robots cannot be mass-produced in the short term, we are still optimistic about their future growth. In the end, Musk expects that the number of humanoid robots will reach the order of millions in the future, and the final cost of a single unit may be less than US$20,000, which is promising in the future.
Recommended to pay attention to the core components link:
In the humanoid robot industry chain, the importance of core components is particularly prominent. The debut of the new generation of Optimus further confirms its position on the cost and performance ends.
① Reducer: mainly includes harmonics and RV reducer , which is still mainly monopolized by Japan. In recent years, the domestic production rate has gradually increased. According to estimates, the global harmonic market space has reached 14.8 billion in 2025, with CAGR=60% in 22-25.
② Controller: mainly controls the motion posture and trajectory of robots, and market demand has grown steadily in recent years. Foreign companies dominate, and the gap is reflected in software algorithms.
③Servo system: including driver and servo motor . Robots use servos to require higher response speed, load capacity, volume quality, etc. In recent years, domestic brands have been mass-produced in the mid- and low-end fields and have been constantly moving towards the high-end.
Investment advice: Focus on recommending green harmonics, Eston , Huichuan technology (covered by Dongwu Electric New Group); it is recommended to pay attention to double-ring transmission .
