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Changes in the chip market
The chip market is indeed facing the risk of overcapacity as TSMC leaders expected. Before, when SMIC wanted to expand production in the 28nm field, a leader of TSMC persuaded them. The explanation given by SMIC at the time was that there was still a certain gap in the chip situation from a comprehensive shortage to a structural shortage.
According to Reuters reports, we can learn that from the end of May to June this year, within a few weeks. Moreover, due to the global epidemic situation, the supply of chips has undergone tremendous changes. The "core shortage wave" has converged in some areas, and the original shortage has turned into oversupply. This menacing fact is just like the original "core shortage wave". "This also caught many semiconductor companies off guard, and they all began to reduce output or cut orders.
In fact, some clues can be seen from TSMC’s massive order cuts some time ago. Recently, TSMC’s three major customers are all cutting orders to a certain extent, such as and apple . Even though Apple 14 has begun mass production, but first The batch shipment volume has been reduced by 10%. Another large customer, AMD, has reduced its orders for 6 and 7 nanometers by a total of 20,000 pieces. NVIDIA has also followed the former to reduce the total number of postponed orders.
This is true for TSMC, the industry leader, not to mention other manufacturers? Relevant personnel analyzed that TSMC is the vane of the global chip industry. TSMC is like this. It can be said that other wafer foundries will not escape the crisis and will face more severe challenges.
Oversupply of chips
The speed of chip oversupply has frightened many companies. Therefore, Micron Technology , the leader in memory chips in the United States, has stated that it will reduce production before June. In response, its chief commercial officer said that this market reversal was not expected by Micron and caught people off guard. . The difference between the
chip industry and traditional industries is that the timeliness is very high. Chips that are in short supply during this period will definitely not be in short supply after a while, just like many electronic products are outdated when they are outdated, such as those that were very popular before. MP4, with the advent of smartphones, who still uses them? To put it cruelly, the waves behind the Yangtze River push the waves ahead, and the waves in front die on the beach.
So the chip industry is even more cruel. So what are the reasons behind this crisis?
The result is still strongly related to the repeated epidemics. The semiconductor industry has plummeted due to the epidemic before, but this time it still cannot escape the epidemic, and this may be a warning given by nature to mankind. Situation related.
In addition to the epidemic, it is also linked to the current Russia-Ukraine conflict and the economic problems of high inflation. In addition, today’s global users’ demand for mobile phones has weakened.
The epidemic has caused people to invest less in smart devices such as mobile phones. After all, many people always stay at home, and some people’s financial capabilities have weakened, which has led to investment in mobile phones and other equipment. After all, there is no spare money to buy new phones. .
The reason why the current oversupply situation has occurred is also because the semiconductor industry was too hot before. This situation has dazzled some manufacturers. I would say that the more resources we can stock up on chips, the better.
This situation is very similar to stocking up on supplies during the epidemic, worrying that there will not be enough supplies. However, some supplies have a certain timeliness, just like some food, which cannot be eaten after being stored for a long time.
The same goes for chips, but many device manufacturers ignore these principles and hoard chips regardless. Many semiconductor companies saw huge demand and frantically expanded their production lines regardless. You must know that in the past, controlled production was the norm for many manufacturers. This is to minimize excess inventory. But things changed when the epidemic hit. Many manufacturers still chose to keep stocking up.
This is mainly done by American companies, mainly because they want to use rare goods to increase the price of chips and use the price difference to make profits. But the abacus and have been typed incorrectly. What can I do with the large number of chips I have accumulated before? What
can do is to stop the loss in time and sell it at a low price, but it is not certain what the effect will be. Because as mentioned before, many people around the world will invest less in smart devices due to the epidemic. If the chip situation is better in other aspects, such as chips in the automotive field.
At present, it seems that semiconductors in the automotive industry are already booming, and a large number of companies, such as some giants, will soon participate. There is a huge gap in the chips needed for today's new automotive energy sources. For example, automotive grade SOC, TPMS, sensor chips, etc. The vacancy in
is likely to become the development peak of the next chip era. It depends on whether many companies can seize this seemingly good opportunity.
Currently, it is a huge crisis for many American companies that once wanted to find rare goods. There is still no sign that many mobile phone chips from US companies can be cleared quickly.
Many consumers today have a declining demand for replacement phones, which means that many mobile phones are still waiting to be taken away from manufacturers. This waiting has caused mobile phone chips to be further shelved.
Nowadays, it is unlikely that the so-called "machine replacement boom" will occur. If there really is a wave, maybe the crisis of US companies can be relieved accordingly. However, even if there can be an increase in demand for replacement, but from now on The production time from chips to mobile phones is not that fast.
What do you think about this?
