We hope that relevant monitoring agencies can predict the types of viruses in various provinces and regions. This is very important. For example, the proportion of BA5.2 and BF7 in a city can only be obtained from hospital clinics and social nucleic acid testing points. We can do

Regarding the size of the R0 value of a virus , I don't think the quote here is authoritative. I haven't even seen what the official numbers are. The

BA5 series includes BA5.1, BA5.2 and bf7, which all belong to the same series. In terms of distribution area, Tianjin, Guangzhou and Inner Mongolia are typical distribution areas, but BA2 and BA5 are not of the same series. This type of virus is found in a coastal city and Tibet area.

We hope that relevant monitoring agencies can predict the types of viruses in various provinces and regions. This is very important. For example, the proportion of BA5.2 and bf7 in a city can only be obtained from hospital outpatient clinics and social nucleic acid testing points. You can do as much data as you can. Different virus strains have different r0 values, and their development speeds are different. In the era of strict epidemic prevention, because of the strict regional testing, it is not easy for them to form a coexistence relationship, and they lack the conditions for coexistence. But after opening up, whoever has a larger r0 value may be in a dominant position. My personal suggestion is that although we have implemented liberalization, we must make stricter regulations on the entry and exit of foreign countries. I am afraid that this suggestion is too late now.

But what we need to know is

ba2 13.3

ba5.2 is 18.6

xbb is 25

bq1 is 26

Note that the R0 of the latter two viruses comes from the Internet. I cannot judge whether it is true or false. I even think this number is doubtful. For example, the person in the article I quoted said that the spread speed of bq is twice that of the BA5 series, but what I understand is that it can only be twice that of the BA2 series, so I don’t think this data deserves your full trust. The reason why these data are quoted here is that we only need to know a general direction, that is, the R0 value of new viruses is getting faster and faster. Based on the size of r0, it is only a matter of time that xBB and bq will replace BA5 in the future. This is the author's conclusion. The law of development of the

virus is that whoever has a larger r0 value will dominate. Even if it is unlikely to form a peak, there is a possibility of forming a small peak.

The following questions must be answered by virologists. There is no definite answer to this question, but I still hope that virologists will conduct a lot of scientific research on such issues.

Because many of our infected people have recovered, but I don’t have specific data here on the possibility of infected people being infected with another strain of again, so I won’t comment on this.

In my opinion, these are still my two questions. I raised this question in early December. As time goes by, some questions have a preliminary understanding. I hope these questions can be answered by virologists and medical science experts. (Here I hope it is Mr. Zeng Guang and Mr. Wu Zunyou)

1 Can one person be infected with two virus strains? There are only examples on the Internet, and there are very few examples, so I can't treat this as a universal event. I think this example is unlikely. (Personal understanding)

The second question is that in the process of a person developing immunity to against a virus strain, we know that there is also a certain possibility of secondary infection (picture attached). Except for the virus strain that has been infected, there is no talk about the adaptation to the second different virus strain. If a person is infected twice, the second virus strain is unlikely. This is my judgment. Please note that the first virus strain and the second virus strain I mentioned are from the same series. (Personal understanding) The reason why

asked these two questions is that they are related to the development of the epidemic in a region and are very important.

Here we must talk about an issue, bq and x BB replacement, BA5 series, is the trend. It can be simply understood that whoever has a larger r0 value will dominate. But the r0 values ​​of the two viruses are so close, so they can only be an equalization process. The author of

tried to use the most rigorous method to describe these problems, but it seems that virologists have a lot of work, and a lot of data cannot be completely unified. Therefore, when judging such problems, we cannot blame too much the judgment of virologists or medical science experts. This is the conclusion. The unknown world they want to understand may be the same as ours.

I often read popular science by Mr. Zeng Guang and Mr. Wu Zunyou, and I really hope these two experts can give simple answers to these questions. These two people are experts in epidemiology and are the most qualified to answer these questions. For example, some of the R0 value issues mentioned in the article are just that some definitions on the Internet are full of loopholes. I don't know which one of them is in the right direction, but the data must be too biased.