The COVID-19 pandemic that began in 2020 has been nearly three years now. With the continuous mutation of the new coronavirus, the COVID-19 pandemic is still not over.

The COVID-19 pandemic that began in 2020 has been nearly three years since then. With the continuous mutation of the new coronavirus, the COVID-19 pandemic has not ended now. This COVID-19 pandemic has affected many aspects of the world. I believe many people want to know when the pandemic will end, right? In fact, our country’s scientists have made predictions about when the epidemic will end, so they predict when the pandemic will end?

Chinese scientists have predicted that the COVID-19 pandemic will end by the end of 2023 - a group of analysts from Lanzhou University predicted that the COVID-19 pandemic will end globally by the end of 2023. This forecast was made using the COVID-19 Pandemic Global Forecast System (GPCP) created by Lanzhou University. The article was published in The Innovation entitled "Will the Omickron pandemic end?" The

article stated that with the emergence and destructive consequences of the Omicron variant, two different views have been presented to the public for the development of the future pandemic. One view suggests that the emergence of the Omicron variant could also be a signal that the COVID-19 pandemic is about to end, regardless of its ability to spread rapidly and at scale. Another team of researchers noted that the COVID-19 pandemic will not end in the near term. Here, researchers used the COVID-19 Pandemic Global Predictive System (GPCP) model to predict the development of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Research article screenshot

The final prediction results show that by November 2023, the number of confirmed cases around the world will be very low. However, the article also stated that although the forecast results show that the COVID-19 epidemic will end in November 2023, this result is based on the latest developments in the COVID-19 pandemic. More specifically, the results focus on possible consequences due to the Omickron variant. If more transmissible variants appear, the results need to be adjusted accordingly. We also know that if a stronger new crown variant appears in the future, the prediction result may be inaccurate and requires corresponding adjustments.

Why does the virus mutate? - Viruses are composed of genetic code (DNA or RNA) packaged in a protein shell, and the protein shell may be covered by the shell. Viruses lack the mechanisms required for replication and host cells must be found to replicate. When they enter the host cell, they hijack the cell and start making more copies of themselves. The newly replicated viral RNA or DNA is packaged into the protein shell and released from the host cell, resulting in cell damage. When a virus replicates or replicates itself, it sometimes changes a little, and these changes are called "mutations." A virus with one or more new mutations is called a "variant" of the original virus. The more viruses spread, the more likely they are to change. Most mutations are harmful to the virus, others have little effect on the virus, and some (the most worrying mutation) increase the virus's own advantages.

Some viruses change very quickly, while others are slow. Usually viruses become more rapid than host genome mutations, while DNA viruses are relatively stable, and RNA viruses are prone to mutation. SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is an RNA virus, so it mutates at a higher rate than a DNA virus. This can be explained to some extent by the virus's internal "proofreading mechanism", which can correct "error" when replicating itself (this mechanism is missing in RNA viruses). In short, it is normal for viruses to mutate, but it is difficult to predict whether they will become stronger or weaker.

What is even more worrying is that the new coronavirus is a zoonotic disease, which may cause the virus to be transmitted back from animals to humans - It can not only infect humans, but also infect animals. SARS-CoV-2 can infect a variety of animals, including minks, ferrets , cats, white-tailed deer and various primates. This raises concerns that the virus may mutate when it spreads in animals, making the virus more contagious or fatal to humans. To achieve this, coronavirus needs to jump back to humans after infecting animals. In February 2020, some media reported the first case of a dog infected with the COVID-19 virus.The dog is likely infected with the virus through close contact with the infected owner, a “reverse zoonotic disease” that means the virus has been transmitted from humans to animals. Since then, the virus has reshaped our perception of it and has allowed us to rethink the interaction between animals and humans.

At the end of 2021, scientific research showed that the prevalence of COVID-19 virus in the white-tailed deer population in North America was very high. The virus was detected at the wildlife population level for the first time. While the occasional coronavirus in some animals has few long-term consequences, wildlife population infection suggests that the virus may evolve further in animals and reintroduce the virus into humans in the future. Another notable example of reverse zoonotic cases occurred in pet hamsters who were infected with the delta strain of the COVID-19 virus, most likely due to human contact. However, unlike deer, a hamster was confirmed, and it sent the virus back to humans. This situation increases the risk that the new coronavirus will mutate in animals and then pass it to humans.

In short, no matter what, I hope the COVID-19 pandemic will end as soon as possible and restore the world to its previous peace and stability. The above is what we have today. I am Huo Zongjun, see you next time.