article is reproduced from "Xinji Speed" chip purchase
01, MCU
With the ease of upstream chip shortage and the advancement of domestic substitution, the spot inventory of MCU has been very sufficient, and the market has formed an atmosphere of price reduction and selling goods.
According to Jianzhi research data, judging from the inventory of a domestic buyer channel on July 1, judging from the inventory of a domestic buyer channel on July 1: the inventory of MCU is not only very sufficient, but the inventory this year is still very large (ST, TI, NXP, GD accounts for a high proportion) .
Source: Jianzhi Research
Since this year, the market price of general consumer MCUs has continued to decline with the new round of epidemic. The signs of price speculation have been quickly extinguished by real (downward) demand, and the problem of oversupply of MCUs has become more prominent. , such as the popular STM32F103RCT6, fell back to the 2-digit price from the high of 100 yuan in the first quarter, and the domestic substitute chip brand GD was competed to be sold at low prices. At the same time, the situation of domestic bottom MCUs fighting price wars, clearing inventory, and seizing market share has become increasingly fierce.
General and consumer MCU prices have fallen significantly, which is not much different from the normal price; however, high-end MCU delivery time is still tight, emerging markets such as smart cars are in short supply, and spot prices remain high, bringing new opportunities and challenges to the MCU spot market.
02, driver IC
This year, affected by the sluggish consumer market, the demand for consumer goods such as mobile phones, laptops, and home appliances has continued to decline recently, and panel prices have also dropped sharply, and panel driver IC inventory has also increased. The terminal demand for upstream chips mainly depends on the attention to inventory water level. Once demand drops, driver IC manufacturers can only reduce the price of to destock . CINNO Research data shows that in the second quarter of 2022, the global display panel driver chip DDIC price fell by about 2%-8%, and the price decline in the third quarter expanded to 4%-15%.
There is a news that has already cut the wafer foundry investment volume, with an amplitude of up to 20%-30% . Previously, Samsung suspended the core purchase order, which also included driver ICs.
03, storage
Nowadays, due to the epidemic and inflation and other factors, global consumer demand has declined significantly, and the storage chip upstream of the terminal is also facing a price reduction and inventory reduction. It is understood that global DRAM revenue in Q1 2022 decreased by 4%, and is expected to fall by 10% in Q1 2022. In terms of Q1 2022, the price is expected to fall by 10%. In terms of NAND Flash, the overall industrial revenue in Q1 2022 decreased by 2% in Q1 2022, and the price is expected to fall by 0-5%.
In addition, the flash memory market said that South Korea, the world's largest memory chip manufacturer, has been unable to digest its inventory in time due to the decline in terminal demand. In May, the country's chip inventory surged by 53.4%, the largest increase in four years. In response to this, the flash memory market stated that since October last year, South Korea's chip inventory has been increasing by year-on-year. Now, there is inevitably a situation where prices are lowered and prices are exchanged for volume.
Samsung is considering reducing the price of memory chips in the second half of 2022, aiming to further expand its market share. Micron also believes that market demand is weak and price wars are unavoidable. Other manufacturers can only choose between price cuts and loss of performance.
04, 5G chip (mobile phone SoC)
Affected by the weakening demand for consumer electronic terminals such as personal computers and smartphones, many mobile phone manufacturers' manufacturing factories have cut orders significantly. Such large-scale order cuts and production cuts have led to a decrease in demand for 5G chips.
There is a news that recently 6 MediaTek has cut orders for 5G chips in the fourth quarter of 2022 by 30%-35% , and Qualcomm also lowered the production of high-end Snapdragon 8 series by 10%-15%. Tianfeng Securities Kuo Mingchi said that judging from the order cuts of the two major 5G chip leaders, the sluggish demand in the terminal market of may be difficult to improve in the first quarter of 2023.
05, CIS chip
Nowadays, demand for terminals such as mobile phones has declined, and CIS chips have also been affected. According to Qunzhi Consulting, the current supply and demand situation of CIS ( contact image sensor ) is in a state of oversupply, and manufacturers have severely accumulated inventory .
It is reported that the total inventory of the top five CIS suppliers of Chinese Android brands has exceeded 550 million. In the third quarter, the price of 5P/50M CIS was about US$5.1 per, a year-on-year decrease of 14%.
06, CPU, GPU
Nowadays, affected by the decline in the market demand for laptops, the demand for core CPU and GPU components in laptops is sluggish, manufacturers have severely cut orders, and prices have also started a downward trend. According to reports, the price of GPU has dropped by an average of 57% since the beginning of 2022.
, and AMD cut orders for 7nm and 6nm process CPUs and GPU chips from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year, with a scale of about 20,000 wafers ; NVIDIA's next-generation RTX 40 series GPUs using 5nm process were originally planned to be released in September this year, and it may be postponed until 2023. The delayed release means that foundries such as TSMC cannot get the latest orders. From another perspective, it is also a form of order cut; Intel also put its major PC brand Alder Lake in the second quarter CPU prices have been cut by 10%, and are preparing to cut its next-generation processors, including Core i5 and Core i7 chips, by another 5%.
07, PA chip
to 2021 In the fourth quarter, mobile phone demand declined, industrial chain faced inventory adjustments, and RF PA manufacturers also entered the stage of price-cutting and shipment. According to Jiwei.com on May 30, the inventory level of PA chips is relatively high, and the production capacity of upstream gallium arsenide foundries such as , Wenmao, Hongjieke and other upstream gallium arsenide foundries have also declined repeatedly, falling to freezing point.
08, passive components
It is reported that the MLCC of all terminals, original manufacturers and channel vendors is still in a destocking state, and the supply and demand relationship is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the price is at a low level. "The prices of channel dealers will not drop again, and you will not make money if you drop again."
It is understood that most of the inventory of MLCC manufacturers is between 1.5-2.5 months, but some downstream agents have been in stock for 4 months. It was previously expected that they could recover to the healthy inventory level in August, but now there are news that it may be delayed until September. Some institutions predict that demand for consumer MLCC will continue to weaken in the second half of 2022, and the price is expected to fall by 3%-6%. In general, it is almost a foregone conclusion that the peak season of passive components will not be prosperous in the third quarter of this year.
