Judging from the current analysis data of marine and atmospheric conditions, as the widespread colder seawater in the tropical Pacific region is maintained, and the colder seawater will continue to exist in the future, the La Nina phenomenon is still present in the Pacific. The National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration has previously released a message pointing out that the National Climate Center is expected to continue until the winter of 2022/2023 based on the current status of atmospheric circulation of equatorial Pacific Ocean and the prediction results of domestic and foreign climate dynamic patterns and statistical methods.
Since the seawater temperature in the tropical Pacific surface fell sharply in the second half of 2020, the La Nina phenomenon came in 2020, and the subsequent La Nina occurred in 2021. By the same as another La Nina phenomenon in the second half of this year, we mean that we are experiencing three consecutive waves of La Nina. Although La Nina and El Niño appear alternately in everyone's impression, the evolution of La Niña and El Niño is not actually the case, and there are also continuous occurrences, but three consecutive cases such as 2020-2022 are still not common.
In the US Ocean Atmospheric Administration's historical observations dating back to 1950, there were 24 La Niña in the northern hemisphere winter, and there were also three-peak La Niña events, but the development of La Niña in 2020-2022 was very special - although this was the third three-peak La Niña in the observation history of 1950, the first time it did not happen after the strong El Niña event, and the other three-peak La Niña have a background of the strong El Niña event.
Some netizens are asking: Is Sanfeng La Nina very powerful? Will this year be a super cold winter? The three peaks of La Nina, or the triple La Nina, do sound quite intimidating, but in essence it is actually three consecutive La Nina events, not three superpositions of La Nina. The continuous appearance of La Niña means that the climate pattern is indeed in an abnormal state, but it is not La Niña promax, but should be described as a special La Niña state. Zhejiang Provincial Meteorological Service Center pointed out that the three peak La Niña phenomenon occurred in 1973-1976 and 1998-2001 respectively. Under the background of two three peak La Niña, the winter temperatures in Zhejiang Province were low and high, and both precipitation were less.
Judging from the historical meteorological data of Zhejiang Province, under the three peaks of La Nina, the winter temperature in Zhejiang Province is actually colder at one time and warmer at another, which means that the relationship with the cold winter is not particularly obvious. Following the previous climate forecast of Guangdong Province, the Zhejiang Provincial Climate Center recently released a climate forecast for this winter, pointing out that the average temperature in Zhejiang Province in winter (December 2022-February 2023) will be normal and slightly higher (within 1 degree higher). This forecast means that in Zhejiang Province, the possibility of a strong cold winter is low.
In this forecast, the Zhejiang Provincial Climate Center also pointed out that it is expected that the winter is warmer in the first winter and colder in the later winter is more likely, and the average temperature in various places will occur at the lowest in January. It is expected that cold air will be more frequent, and the intensity may reach a cold wave or even a strong cold wave or a super cold wave. The main cooling periods occur in mid-to-late December, mid-to-late January and mid-February, and extreme low temperatures may occur. This forecast also means that although the average three months are more likely to be warmer, we still need to be wary of severe temperature changes caused by frequent and strong cold air activities and periodic extreme low temperature weather.
NOAA Previous forecast pointed out that the current La Nina state in the equatorial Middle East Pacific Ocean continues. It is expected that the northern hemisphere will still maintain the La Nina state in the late autumn and reach its peak in the late autumn and early winter. It will gradually decay after reaching its peak in late autumn and early winter. It may even fade rapidly in the early 2023 and turn to a neutral state. This rare three-peak La Nina is expected to end in this period.
#storm# #weather# #cold air# # triple la Nina event may occur this winter# # What does it mean that this winter may appear?#
