What happened in New York won't stay in New York - no matter what, it won't happen during the pandemic.
When scientists speculate what the US fall COVID wave might look like, all eyes are focused on New York state . This is because it is considered the “leader” of the virus situation, and what is happening there usually provides a preview for the rest of the country.
At present, New York is seeing more and more COVID variants of the extremely spread, immune avoidance BQ family, including BQ.1 and BQ.1.1. Experts told Fortune magazine that as such variants flourish there, they are likely to thrive elsewhere in the country as well. The
BQ variant — and the XBB variant that has surged in other parts of the world — is considered the most immune-evasion strain to date. The jury still didn't know the severity of these strains , , but early reports have been reported that monoclonal antibody treatments reserved for high-risk patients could not resist them.
"We are really worried about BQ.1.1 and keep an eye on data in New York," Raj Rajnarayanan, Assistant Dean and Associate Professor at the New York Institute of Technology Campus in Jonesboro, Arkansas, recently told Fortune .
Omicron produces BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 "follow the same script" along with other previously dominant variants such as the original strains of COVID, Delta and Omicron, and began to swell in the northeast, and eventually, it may eventually lead to mutations by mutation tracker Ryan Gregory, Ph.D., professor of evolutionary biology at the University of Guelph, Ontario, Canada, and mutation tracker, told Fortune magazine that has swept the rest of the United States.
New York worrying hospitalization rate
Experts say New York is a veritable crystal ball in terms of COVID prediction for two reasons: the number of inbound international travelers and the powerful ability to genetically sequence COVID virus samples.
When a variant gets attention in Europe, like the BQ family, trackers like Rajnarayanan and Gregory know to look for it in the United States. The first place they checked was: New York.
This week, the level of BQ variants in the CDC New York area almost doubled, which also includes New Jersey, Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands . According to agency data, the total number of BQ family members rose from 9% last week to more than 17% this week.
's rapid growth rate has concerns scientists, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, a well-known American infectious disease expert, who recently called the double time of the virus family "quite troublesome".
However, Rajnarayanan is more worried that the number of hospitalizations in New York is also increasing. In mid-September, they sat about 2,000 people a day. According to the state, they approached nearly 3,000 people a month later.
He said the current number of hospitalizations in the state is “very close, if not higher than the peak in the Delta,” referring to the deadly COVID wave that shook the United States late last year before the Omicron attack.
Rajnarayanan quoted his dashboard created using Google trend data saying that another sign of rising virus activity is that Google's "cough" search for in New York is 5 to 7 times higher than 's usual. In addition to "sorrow throat" and "diarrhea", searches for "nose congestion", "headache" and " migraine " are also rising.
"Something is going on there," he said.
"Ugly Peaks"
Rajnarayanan said the U.S. may not lag behind New York in terms of the surge in BQ cases, as families of variants in other parts of the country are also slowly rising.
U.S. Centers for Disease Control ’s estimated BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 cases (called “typhoons” and “hellhounds” by some public health experts on Twitterverse, respectively) rose from about 12% nationwide last week to nearly 17% this week and precautions announced Friday. Experts say the national BQ level may lag behind New York, with most of the first sequences in New York being identified in New York.
No one can predict which variant will stand out this winter. But the extreme immune avoidance and transmission of BQ.1.1 "makes it the main driver of the next wave in the U.S. in the coming weeks," said Dr. Eric Topol, professor of molecular medicine at the Scripps Research Center and founder and director of the study. Scripps Research Translational Institute, tweeted last week.
In the past, wave after wave of COVID variants were quite continuous, usually with a valley or plateau in the middle. But now, according to Rajnarayanan, there are over 500 Omicron variants in circulation – some of which, like members of the XBB family, have the potential to lead to their own subsequent surge.
He predicts that the upcoming COVID wave in the United States will be more than just a wave, but a series of waves—each driven by different variants—forming a "meter-top" or "meter-like platform."
He said the extension wave will have an "ugly peak because the combination of different lineages reaches its peak and then falls". "When a person falls, I won't celebrate because something else will appear."
In terms of hospitalizations and deaths, the upcoming winter wave may not be that different from what the United States has already experienced. But that doesn't mean it has no consequences, experts say. "Even if 200,000, 300,000, 400,000 people are infected, some of them may have Long COVID," said
Rajnarayanan. "This will affect the workforce, those who can't work remotely. It's a big problem."
"I don't think we have the proper plans as a country," he continued. “I would like to see a long-term COVID plan before we start announcing the end of the pandemic .”
