China Weather Network exclusive report This year, extreme high temperature heat waves swept across the northern hemisphere again. The earth seems to be experiencing a hotter year every year than in the past. At the same time, extreme precipitation has frequently set records. Extreme weather and climate events that have never been experienced are taking turns on this planet at a more frequent pace. We are experiencing the 10 years of the most severe climate change since the industrial revolution of . Extreme weather and climate events in my country have also experienced frequent, widespread, recurrence and concurrent characteristics. The "hoter, more drought and more flooding future" that people are worried about may become reality step by step.
Extremely warm: The past 10 years are the warmest on record
Not long ago, we just passed the third hottest June and the second hot July in the world on record. Our country encountered a rare extreme heat weather lasting 79 days, which is also the strongest comprehensive high-temperature heat wave event since 1961.
not only this year. Looking back on the past 10 years, we have witnessed more and more "extreme high temperature heat wave events", "hottest summer", and "hottest year in history". "Hot year is getting hotter every year" is really not an illusion.
According to National Climate Center data statistics, my country's annual average temperature has shown a significant upward trend since 1951, with a temperature increase of 0.26℃/10 years, higher than the global average level during the same period (0.15℃/10 years), and is a sensitive area for global climate change.
2012 to 2021 is the warmest decade in history in nearly 70 years. Of the first ten years with the highest average temperature in the country, seven of them occurred in the 10 years since 2012, of which 2021 was the hottest year since meteorological records.
The temperature increase rate of in the Qinghai-Tibet region is the largest, with an average increase of 0.37℃ every 10 years; North China, Northeast and Northwest regions are second, with the temperature increase rates of 0.33℃/10 years, 0.31℃/10 years and 0.30℃/10 years. In my country, the temperature increase rate of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the middle and high latitude areas are the areas with the most obvious temperature increase.
is not only hotter, but also hotter more extreme.
Since 1961, the average annual high temperature daily number in my country has shown an increase, especially in the past 10 years, the most obvious is that it is more than the usual ones, of which more than 40% in 7 years. The extremes of high temperatures are also increasing. Judging from the extreme high temperature index that reflects the intensity and range of high temperatures, China's average extreme high temperature index has increased by 0.21℃ every decade since 1961.
In the midsummer of 2013, the strongest high-temperature heat waves occurred in the south since 1951. The number of extreme high-temperature events and the number of extreme continuous high-temperature daily stations both hit a historical high. The highest temperature in the next day of 477 stations in the country exceeded the historical extreme value, the most in the same period in history.
But the high temperature record seems to have no "upper limit". This year we ushered in the hottest summer in history. The national average temperature in summer (22.3℃) was the highest in the same period since the complete meteorological observation record in 1961; Central Meteorological Observatory issued high temperature warnings for 41 days, which is unprecedented; the daily maximum temperature of 1,057 national meteorological stations reached the standard of extreme high temperature events, accounting for more than 40% of the total number of all stations in the country.
Distribution of extreme high temperatures (left) and extreme continuous high temperature daily events in the summer of 2022 (right). (Picture source: National Climate Center)
It is worth noting that while extreme warmth occurs frequently, extreme cold events still exist. According to statistics, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued an average of 30 to 60 cold wave warnings every year in the past 10 years, and the intensity of cold waves and strong cold air has not weakened.
This is not contradictory. Against the backdrop of global climate warming , the global heat exchange at low and high latitudes has intensified, and violent temperature fluctuations and phased cold events have emerged one after another. Hu Xiao, chief meteorological analyst of China Weather Network, said: "The fluctuations in temperature are like a tight spring. The sudden change in force will cause obvious fluctuations and fluctuations, which is more likely to occur. For example, in winter, abnormal westerly wind belt fluctuations lead to a significant increase in the number of events in large cold and large warm and cold."
At the beginning of last year, we experienced a very rare major reversal in just two months. In January 2021, under the influence of a large-scale strong cold wave weather, the lowest temperatures of more than 50 national meteorological stations in Beijing, Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi and other provinces (cities) reached or broke the lowest record for the construction of the station. Among them, the Beijing Nanjiao Observatory -19.6℃ ushered in the coldest day since 1966.A month later, the warmest February in history was released. The north, which was originally in the middle of winter, was rare and warm. The temperature in the North China Plain generally exceeded 20℃. On February 21 alone, 513 national stations broke the historical extreme value of the highest temperature in February since the local meteorological records were found.
As global warming intensifies, it may encounter more and stronger extreme high temperature events in the future. This is like throwing dice in the game. The higher the throwing frequency, the greater the chance of hitting, and the frequency of extreme events occurs, and the greater the uncertainty of the impact.
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) pointed out that in climates without human influence, extreme high temperature events only occur every 10 years; when the temperature rises by 1.5℃, extreme high temperature events occur 4.1 times every 10 years; when the temperature rises by 2℃, 5.6 times every 10 years.
Some researchers in my country have also studied the response of extreme high temperatures in eastern my country at 1.5 and 2℃ global warming. The results show that for the extremely high temperature days, under the temperature increase of 1.5℃ (2℃), the number of extremely high temperature days that occur on average every 20 years under the current climate will become an average every 4 years (2 years). The extreme high temperature intensity that occurs once in 20 years in the current climate will become once in about 7 years (4 years).
The future of hotter and more extreme high temperatures is becoming a reality.
Extremely wet: The wettest year on record in the past 10 years
is getting hotter and hotter, while precipitation is also increasing.
data statistics show that since 1951, the average precipitation in my country has shown an increase trend, especially from 2012 to 2021, the wettest decade in history in the past 70 years.
The warming atmosphere intensifies the global water circulation, can carry more water, and thus lead to more extreme rainfall. Zhou Bing, chief expert of climate services of the National Climate Center, said, "From the perspective of years of climate data, the number of precipitation days has decreased significantly, but the precipitation efficiency has increased and the intensity has become stronger."
Data statistics from the National Climate Center show that my country's average precipitation days show a significant decrease, with an average decrease of 1.9 days per decade, but the number of days in heavy rain stations has increased significantly, and the cumulative intensity of rainstorms has increased significantly, with an average increase of 4% per decade.
The process extreme precipitation weather we encounter is becoming more and more frequent, and single-point and local extreme precipitation events are also becoming more extreme.
In 2016, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River encountered "violent plums", and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Taihu basin exceeded the alarm. The "super violent plum" in 2020 has even broken the record of the number of plum rains and plum rain days since 1961. The basin floods occurred in the Yangtze River , Huaihe , and Taihu Lake, the worst flood situation since 1998.
2021 to 2022, South China encountered "fever" dragon boat water for two consecutive years. From May 21 to June 21 this year, the average rainfall in Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan was the second most since 1951. For example, in Qingyuan Liannan, Guangdong, the cumulative rainfall is 1,689.2 mm, which is equivalent to heavy rain every day during this month. Affected by heavy precipitation, floods occurred in Guangxi and Guangdong, and the Pearl River Flood Control Commission once upgraded flood prevention emergency to Level I.
From June 19 to 21, 2022, severe floods and disasters occurred in Shaoguan, Guangdong for three consecutive days, and the Municipal Third Flood Control Command issued a Level I emergency response to flood prevention. The picture shows heavy rainstorms occurring in Shaoguan on June 21, with the water levels of Wujiang, Zhenjiang and Beijiang soaring, and the low-lying areas in the urban area were flooded. (Lu Jiechen/People's Vision/Copyright Picture Source Visual China )
The heavy rainstorm in Beijing in 2012 is still memorable. The average daily precipitation intensity in Beijing exceeds once in a century. The total amount of rainfall, the intensity, the duration, and the huge local flood are rare in history. The catastrophic and heavy rainstorm in Henan last year on July 20 made extreme weather the focus of national attention. Zhengzhou rained almost a whole year in one day, and the maximum hourly precipitation was as high as 201.9 mm, breaking the record of meteorological observation of hourly precipitation in mainland my country.
Henan’s “7.20” extreme rainstorm process lasts for a long time, has a large accumulated rainfall, and a wide range of heavy rainfall. The cumulative rainfall in most areas of central and northern Henan exceeds 500 mm, among which Zhengzhou and Xinxiang experienced severe rainstorms for two consecutive days.(Photo source: Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory)
Extreme humidity is not only reflected in land precipitation, but also makes typhoon from the sea show more extreme characteristics.
Our country is one of the countries most affected by typhoons in the world. On average, there are 26 typhoons generated in the Pacific and South China Sea waters every year, 7 of which will land along my country's coast. Looking back at the typhoons that have landed in our country in the past 10 years, there are many "fair" typhoons. For example, the strongest typhoon "Wimmarson" that landed in my country since 1949, the global "wind king" " Moranti " that hit Xiamen, Fujian in 2016, and the typhoon "fireworks" that stranded on land for 95 hours and broke the record and indirectly caused heavy rainstorms in Zhengzhou, Henan, etc., have all brought serious disaster losses to my country.
It is worth noting that, based on the 5-year generation statistics, it was found that among the typhoons that have landed in my country in recent years, there have been more typhoons with typhoons and above, especially since 2004, there are 39 strong typhoons and above, accounting for nearly 70% (68%) of the total. Among them, 5 super typhoons have landed in my country from 2014 to 2018.
In addition, there are more typhoons in the offshore areas. Gao Shuanzhu, chief forecaster of the Typhoon and Marine Meteorological Forecasting Center of the Central Meteorological Observatory, said: "Typhoons with increasing nearshore conditions are rare since 1949, but the frequency has occurred in the past 10 years is significantly higher than before." Strengthening typhoons in the offshore conditions will not only increase the difficulty of forecasting the typhoon intensity and path, but also easily make the public careless and lose their vigilance. Once they get close to land, the sudden outbreak will increase the time for prevention, which is relatively short, which is not conducive to the adoption of corresponding defensive measures.
Will the impact of typhoons in the future be more extreme? Currently, mainstream research opinions in the world believe that under the background of continuous global warming, the maximum wind speed and precipitation of typhoons are likely to continue to increase. Relevant simulation studies and theoretical analysis show that when the sea surface temperature rises by 1 ℃, the wind speed of typhoons will increase by 3% to 5%. Typhoon prevention and disaster reduction will continue to be the focus of defense against natural disasters in my country.
If you stand in a larger perspective, it is not difficult to find that all kinds of extreme weather and climate events that occur in our country are just a microcosm of global climate change. The sixth assessment report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said that global warming in the past 50 years is occurring at an unprecedented rate in the past 2,000 years. The World Meteorological Organization report shows that in the past 50 years, the number of disasters has increased by 5 times and disaster losses have increased by more than 7 times due to the impact of climate change.
"Every 1 ℃ rise in global temperature, the intensity of extreme precipitation increases by 7%. In the future, every 0.5 ℃ increase will significantly change the frequency of extreme temperature events, etc.." Zhou Bing introduced, "In the past decade, our country has entered an era of extreme warmth and humidity."
Response: Society jointly builds disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities
At present, global climate warming is accelerating. Against this background, my country has also entered an extreme warm and humid weather pattern in the past decade. Extreme high temperature events and extreme heavy rainfall events have shown frequent occurrence, widespread, recurrence and frequent occurrence, and disaster prevention and mitigation are facing more challenges.
Meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation are the first line of defense.
Looking back on the past decades, since the first cloud map was taken by Fengyun-1 meteorological satellite in 1988, my country's meteorological observation methods have ushered in a qualitative leap. Up to now, my country has built the world's advanced "ground-space-sky" integrated automated comprehensive observation system, with nearly 70,000 ground automatic observation stations, 236 new generation weather radar , and 7 wind and cloud meteorological satellites closely monitoring my country's weather and climate conditions, and established a professional meteorological monitoring network such as ecology, environment, agriculture, ocean, transportation, and tourism, forming the world's largest comprehensive meteorological observation network.
Relying on this world's largest and most comprehensive meteorological observation network and advanced meteorological information system today, my country has built a seamless and intelligent meteorological forecasting system. At present, the accuracy rate of heavy rain warning in my country is 90%, and the 24-hour error of typhoon path forecasting has been reduced to 70 kilometers. It can issue an strong convective weather warning 40 minutes in advance.
my country's meteorological science and technology innovation has also developed to a new stage of coexistence with each other.After years of overcoming difficulties, some technologies in my country's numerical forecasting business system have reached the international advanced level, laying the foundation for global monitoring, global forecasting, and global services. At the same time, the global climate system model has ranked among the forefront of the world, and the meteorological satellite has ranked among the world's leading ones. Among them, the Fengyun meteorological satellite has provided services to more than 100 countries and regions around the world and more than 2,500 users in China, and has initially built a business pattern of "global monitoring, global forecasting, and global services".
"report accurately", and it is necessary to allow all sectors of society to "collect" and "use well". Over the past 70 years, my country's meteorological department has initially built a modern meteorological service system with Chinese characteristics. The meteorological service tentacles have been extended to all walks of life, achieving expansion from traditional agriculture, geology, hydrology, aviation, etc. to the fields of ocean, forest and grassland, transportation, energy, urban, tourism, environment, public health, etc. The service scope has been expanded to hundreds of industries and covering hundreds of millions of publics, empowering the high-quality development of the industry with the high-quality development of the meteorological industry.
As the "vanguard" of meteorological services disaster prevention and mitigation prevention line, my country has built an emergency warning information release system covering the whole country. The dissemination time limit for disaster warning information has been shortened from 30 minutes to 5 to 8 minutes. The number of deaths and missing people caused by meteorological disasters has dropped from an average of 1,300 people per year to less than 800 people during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. The losses caused by meteorological disasters account for less than 1% of GDP, giving full play to the role of the first line of defense for meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation.
In addition, major strategic meteorological service guarantees are also continuing to deepen. Actively integrate into major national strategies such as poverty alleviation, rural revitalization, and ecological civilization construction and the construction of modern economic systems, and continuously ensure the implementation of national strategies and the construction of major projects involving national economy and people's livelihood.
In the context of frequent and wide-ranging disasters, society also needs to jointly build a line of disaster prevention and mitigation.
Currently, the boundaries of the area affected by meteorological disasters have expanded. Local disasters may trigger chain reactions around the country. At the same time, a single disaster prevention system is facing new problems of the superposition of multiple disasters. Therefore, meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation also requires the social community to jointly build a defense safety net.
From the recent decade of air pollution control in my country, we can see that the socially coordinated disaster prevention and mitigation network has achieved remarkable results.
First of all, it sets standards. In 2012, my country included PM2.5 in the air quality standard for the first time, and released the " Environmental Air Quality Standard ". Immediately afterwards, the policy "combination punch" was introduced. The State Council began to formulate prevention and control plans in 2013, and successively formulated and implemented policies such as " Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan " and "Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Battle of Blue Sky". From enterprises to individuals, they were included in the prevention and control actions. Finally, multiple departments jointly prevent and control the prevention and control. Taking Beijing as an example, on September 30, 2013, the Ministry of Environmental Protection and the China Meteorological Administration jointly issued the "Supervisory and Early Warning Plan for Heavy Pollution Weather in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and Surrounding Areas"; on October 16, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Environmental Meteorological Forecasting and Early Warning Center was established; on October 22, Beijing issued the "Beijing Heavy Pollution Emergency Plan"; on October 23, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding air pollution prevention and control cooperation mechanism was completed and started.
We now know the final result of this battle to defend the blue sky. In February last year, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced that the "Three-Year Action Plan for Winning the Battle of Blue Sky" was successfully concluded. In this year, the annual average concentration of PM2.5 in the "2+26" cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas decreased by nearly 60% compared with 2013; the average proportion of excellent days reached 67.2%, 1.8 times that in 2013. This combination punch model of "the meteorological department's analysis and issuance of early warnings, and corresponding government departments launching and implementing the emergency plan " also provides an empirical reference for disaster prevention and mitigation in response to extreme weather events in the future.
Conclusion
In the past decade, although the frequent occurrence of extreme disasters has increased, the number of direct economic losses and deaths and missing persons caused by meteorological disasters in my country has generally shown a downward trend, which is also the best proof of the construction of my country's disaster prevention and mitigation capacity in recent years.
This summer is the hottest summer in history, and the hotter, more watery and more extreme future that people are worried about will gradually become a reality. The world is the same as the cool and hot, slowing down the warming process and jointly building a disaster prevention and mitigation line, which is the goal that all of us must work for in the future.(Text/Zhu Qian Design/Zhang Li Review/Hu Xiao Chen Xi Yu Xiaofen)
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