In the past day, the development of typhoon "Plum Blossoms" did not reach the expected intensity, and it rose from level 10 to level 11, but it has approached the cold water pit of "Xuan Lannuo", and the prime location of development has gradually disappeared. In the future, The environment will get worse and worse, so the intensity is expected to be further adjusted weakly. Of course, there will be a slight enhancement in the process of "Plum Blossom" entering East China Sea . But this intensity is not as expected.
This morning, the "Plum Blossom" was six or seven hundred kilometers southeast of Taipei City, Taiwan Province. After it approached Taiwan Province, the guiding airflow was not obvious. The "Plum Blossom" will be like "Xuan Lannuo", and may stagnate and spin. And this revolving location is still in Taiwan Province.
In terms of path, various institutions have made some minor adjustments. The United States has collective forecasts and has generally made some eastward adjustments, but the possibility of logging in East China is still not ruled out. In short, this "Plum Blossom" is becoming more and more like "Xuan Lannuo", but unfortunately its strength is much worse than "Xuan Lannuo".
According to the data of various institutions, the Western Pacific region in September will be relatively lively. At present, in addition to the typhoon "Plum Blossom", there are 92W and 93W. There is still a probability of 92W becoming a tide. After entering the middle and late month, New typhoons or disturbances may occur in the east sea surface of Taiwan Province and South China Sea. Let's take a look at the picture in detail.
The collection data at 8 am this morning is still optimistic that the "Plum Blossom" will become a super typhoon, but Quanquan thinks that the probability is still not high, because the energy in front of the "Plum Blossom" is limited. If it cannot develop in the next two days, the future The environment will get worse and worse.
Central Meteorological Observatory path forecast. The strongest level 15 is not shown whether it will land on my country's coast, but the probability exists. The probability range of "Plum Blossoms" within the red line of
. Starting tomorrow, "Plum Blossoms" is still relatively close to Taiwan Province.
13, the location has almost not changed, and it is still on the beach in northeastern Taiwan Province. The weather map of the 13th day forecast by
GFS, the location of "Plum Blossoms" is also on the seaside in northeastern Taiwan Province.
html On the 315th, the plum blossoms entered the East China Sea and the intensity began to weaken.
16 may log in on Zhoushan Islands .
htmlOn the 318th, the "Plum Blossoms" will disappear between the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea, and another typhoon will be generated around you.
21, the cyclone behind "Plum Blossoms" will log in to Japan.
23, there are still two relatively large disturbances in the figure.
This is a simulation diagram of the "Plum Blossom" predicted by GFS when it transits Zhoushan.
This is the path probability map of "Plum Blossoms"
92W east of Ogasawara Islands, and may log in to Japan in the future.
Northwest of Wake Island, I played on the ocean, so I don’t pay attention.
Of course, the impact of typhoon "Plum Blossoms" is about to appear. In the next few days, rainfall may occur in eastern my country, Taiwan Province, Zhejiang Province, Shanghai City, and Shandong Peninsula and Liaodong Peninsula .
