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On September 8, 2021, "Nature" published an online article "1.5°" by Dan Welsby and others from the Institute of Sustainable Resources, University College London "Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world" pointed out that if the global temperature rise is not higher than 1.5 degrees Celsius (50% probability), must quickly reduce the use of fossil fuels in the world. quantity. The report believes through analysis that by 2050, nearly 60% of petroleum and fossil methane gas and 90% of coal must be kept unexploited in order to control the temperature rise within 1.5°C.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03821-8
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Summary:
The parties to the 2015 " Paris Agreement" pledged to limit global warming to below 2 °C and strive to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 °C relative to the pre-industrial era . However, fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy system. To keep the temperature rise below 1.5 °C, the use of fossil fuels must be rapidly reduced. This study uses the global energy system model TIAM-UCL [1] to assess the amount of fossil fuels that need to be stored underground in the region and the world, so that there is a 50% probability that the global warming will be controlled within 1.5 °C.
by 2050,We found that nearly 60% of petroleum and fossil methane gas and 90% of coal must be kept unexploited in order to control the temperature rise within 1.5°C. This value has increased significantly from the target of 2 °C, especially for oil, which requires an additional 25% of the unexploited volume to be stored.
In addition, the results indicate that global oil and gas production must fall by 3% annually by 2050. This means that most regions must reach peak production now or in the next ten years, which will prevent many fossil fuel projects in operation and planning from being implemented. Since limiting the temperature rise to 1.5 °C is more than 50% more likely to require more carbon to be stored underground, and there is uncertainty about the rapid and large-scale deployment of negative emission technologies, we may have underestimated the required production changes.
must keep nearly 60% of petroleum and fossil methane gas and 90% of coal unexploited in order to control the temperature rise within 1.5°C strong4strong source storage
The estimated non-recoverable energy reserves in this study are estimated as a percentage of the unrecovered reserves base in 2018. We estimate that by 2050, oil will account for 58%, fossil methane gas will account for 59%, and coal will account for 89%. This means that under 's goal of 1.5 °C global warming, a very large share of the reserves currently considered to be economically valuable will not be able to be exploited . These estimates are much higher than those of McGlade and Ekins, who estimated the unrecoverable reserves of petroleum and fossil methane to be 33% and 49%, respectively.
If fossil fuels continue to be used after 2050, these estimates will show a decreasing trend in 2100. In 2100, the estimated value of oil dropped to 43%; the decline in fossil methane gas was smaller, from 59% to 50%. Most of the fossil fuels mined after 2050 are used as raw materials for the petrochemical industry.For example, petroleum is used as fuel in the aviation industry. Under the 1.5°C carbon budget, the carbon intensity of raw materials is much lower than that of combustion, accounting for 65% and 68% of the total petroleum and fossil methane gas usage in 2100.
Relative to global estimates (Figure 1 and Table 1), the non-minable share varies from region to region. The largest reserve holders are the Middle East (MEA) (oil and fossil methane gas) and Russia and other former Soviet Union countries (FSU) (fossil methane gas). Estimates for these regions are close to or slightly higher than the global average. The estimated value of unrecoverable oil in Canada is much higher than in other regions, at 83%. This includes 84% of our estimated 49 billion barrels (Gb) of proven Canadian oil sands reserves. In contrast, the former Soviet Union's unrecoverable share of total oil reserves is relatively low (38% in 2050).
Figure 1: Unmineable fossil energy storage in various regions of the world under the 1.5°C target
Table 1: Unmineable fossil energy storage in each region of the world under the 1.5°C target
Supplementary Table 1: The non-exploitable fossil fuel resources by region under the 1.5°C scenario (% and physical units include: Gb = billion barrels of oil; Tcm = trillion cubic meters; Gt = billion tons (metric).)
main production area The decline in production
Regional unrecoverable reserves and broader resource base are the regional production trajectory. Figure 2 shows the five largest oil and fossil methane gas producing areas by 2050. 2020 marks the peak of global oil and fossil methane gas production, and thereafter, it will decline by 2.8% and 3.2% respectively by 2050. Figure 2 shows that, except for the United States, all oil-producing regions will experience significant declines by 2050. U.S. production will reach a peak of 16.9 million barrels per day in 2025, and then show a downward trend in 2050. This initial increase was mainly due to the decline in US oil imports, the continued use of oil as fuel in the transportation sector, and the flexibility of light tight oil (that is, the high production growth of tight oil wells).In the case of Central and South America, production shows a slow decline of 1.1% per year by 2025, and then a slightly faster decline in 2050, at a rate of 3.5%. The Middle East is the largest oil producer and is expected to decline by more than 50% by 2050 (relative to 2020). In other places, due to the decline in domestic demand and import demand in major importing regions (such as Europe), oil production in Africa and the former Soviet Union will decline at a rate of 3.5% and 3.1% respectively from 2020 to 2050.
Regional fossil methane gas production is facing a more complicated situation because it is used to meet the growing demand in emerging markets and as a substitute for coal use in the industrial sector, especially in China and other developing regions in Asia (Figure 2b). U.S. production will peak in 2020 and decline rapidly before 2050, with an annual decline rate of 8.1%. This reflects the rapid decline in the domestic market, which will completely eliminate the use of the power sector by 2040. For this reason, the production of fossil methane gas in the Middle East, Africa, and other developing regions in Asia will start to decline after 2030.
Figure 2: (a) Total oil production; (b) Total production of fossil methane gas
re-evaluate fossil fuel production
The need to abandon future production means producing countries, fossil energy companies and their investment Workers need to seriously reassess their production prospects. Many regions are facing production peaks now or in the next ten years, especially for countries that rely on fossil fuels financially. Therefore, unless the country's economic structure can rapidly diversify, it will face huge risks of transition. Policy measures to limit production and reduce domestic demand focus on supply chain policies that assist carbon pricing and regulatory tools that focus on demand. Such policies are aimed at restricting the extraction of fossil fuels, including the elimination of subsidies, production tax , penalties for violations, and the prohibition of new exploration and production. In addition, international initiatives are also key measures, such as the proposed fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty to promote global action. COVID-19 has caused a decline in the demand for oil and fossil methane gas, which provides an opportunity for the government to adjust its strategy.The crisis further exposed the vulnerability of oil, especially the natural gas industry, and raised concerns about its future profitability.
The bleak picture we painted for the global fossil fuel industry is likely to underestimate what is really needed, so the fossil fuel industry’s output needs to be cut faster. This is because our scenario uses a carbon budget related to the 50% probability of limiting the temperature rise to 1.5 °C, and does not take into account surrounding uncertainties. Therefore, in order to ensure the achievement of this temperature target, more carbon needs to remain underground. In addition, it relies on carbon dioxide removal of approximately 4.4 (5.9) GtCO2 per year by 2050 (2100). In view of the large-scale uncertainty in the scale of carbon dioxide removal, this dependence may underestimate the required reduction rate.
DOI source: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03821-8
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03821-8
total of 11 papers Page, with detailed data and supplementary information. Please click to read the original text to view the original paper, or follow the CWEA official account of the Wind Energy Commission, and reply to the background " September report " to download the PDF of the paper and related supplementary materials and data sheets. CWEA
Notes:
【1】 Global Energy System Model TIAM-UCL
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17679-3
https://doi.org/10.1016 /j.apenergy.2017.03.065
Source: Nature
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03821-8
Content compilation: Wang Chao Huang Xiaoxi @ Climate Change Economics public account
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/6g81yNuhucNlOoGI0p9v-g
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