Due to the impact of the spread of the new coronavirus, the annual medical insurance negotiations have been postponed. Some experts predict that it may be postponed by about a quarter. The delay in medical insurance negotiations has prevented many new drugs from being included in medical insurance as scheduled, including two new coronavirus drugs, Pfizer 's new coronavirus oral drug (small molecule chemical drug) Paxlovid and 's Qingfei Detox Granules from Chinese Academy of Traditional Chinese Medicine.
However, under the severe epidemic situation, the relevant policies of indicate that medical institutions (including Internet hospitals) can provide diagnosis and treatment and medication services to eligible patients on the Internet diagnosis and treatment platform.
In this regard, multiple Internet platforms have begun to sell two new crown oral drugs, not only has Pfizer's new crown oral drugs, and real biological azvdin .
This made me think of the new crown oral drug VV116 of Junshi Biologics . The drug was completed in May this year. Compared with the Phase III registration clinical study of Pfizer's new crown drug used for mild and moderate COVID-19 early treatment, it reached the main endpoint and secondary effectiveness endpoint, but has not been launched.
Today we will combine Junshi Bio's new crown drug research and development to see the opportunities in the new crown drug track~
1. A new study was added. Junshi Bio's new crown drug was postponed to
. It has to be said that because a phase III clinical study completed by Junshi Bio in May, was not listed on the market as scheduled because the single blind trial of did not meet the "marketing standards", resulting in the new crown drug not being launched as scheduled. . Later, in investor interaction in November, Junshi Biologics stated that it had added an international multi-center, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 3 clinical study.
It is also Junshi Bioscience's new crown drug research and development that has shown a certain "bias" that has led to a downturn in the share price of since the second half of this year.
has data currently shown, and the end time of the multi-center phase 3 (NCT05242042) of Junshi Bio's VV116 treatment on ClinicalTrials was changed to 2023.
2. How much clinical demand is there for new coronavirus drugs? Can you save Junshi Biosciences who are losing money?
Currently, only real bio-made oral medicines for domestic new crown is listed. It was approved in July 2022, but because the company is not a listed company, we cannot know the specific sales data.
We can only speculate on the current sales of new crown oral drugs on the market from the perspective of three angles.
First, from the sales data of Tuoxin Pharmaceutical, the real upstream supplier of biological products, Tuoxin Pharmaceutical's operating performance grew significantly in the third quarter of this year. Tuxin Pharmaceutical stated that its subsidiary has signed a supply agreement with Real Bio and has shipped the goods one after another.
In the third quarter of 2022, Tuoxin Pharmaceutical achieved operating income of 176 million yuan, an increase of 72 million yuan compared with last year. Assuming Tuoxin Pharmaceutical sold 50 million yuan to Real Bio in the third quarter. Based on the gross profit margin of 5% of the drug sales, expects that the sales scale of Azfuding's new crown drug is 1 billion yuan ;
If Tuoxin Pharmaceutical sold only 25 million yuan to Real Bio, expects that the sales scale of Azfuding is .5 billion yuan.
Although the above speculation is just a hypothesis, it is expected that Azvdin has indeed achieved a certain sales scale since it was launched in July to the inclusion of the "New Coronavirus Pneumonia Diagnosis and Treatment Plan (Ninth Edition)" on August 9.
Second, judging from the current development status of the epidemic, the new coronavirus is in a stage of rapid spread and it is hard to prevent it. Although the infection rate of cannot be accurately counted, referring to the United States, most people have been infected, and some people have been infected more than once.
So it is expected that the new crown oral medicine as a prescription medicine will be expected to help fight the new crown virus.
imported drug Pfizer's Parovid is relatively expensive (2300 yuan/box), which indirectly hinders the sales of products. , but it is expected that after being included in medical insurance, a certain price reduction will promote product sales.
and real biological Azfuding tablets were approved in July this year. Even if they do not meet the requirements of the new version of the national medical insurance application, has the current signal of "online sales" to promote Azfuding's sales; Azfuding tablets' medical insurance online price is 270 yuan/bottle, with 35 tablets per bottle, and can be taken for about 7 days. It is used to treat adult patients with ordinary novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19).
(Notice of the General Office of the National Health Commission on August 9, 2022)
Third, I think based on the population base of my country, referring to the market size of domestic cold and heat-clearing drugs before, I think if the new crown drugs are popularized, there is still market space.
Southwest Securities Research Institute said that the global oral drug market for new crown is expected to be billions to tens of billions of dollars.
For us, although we are mainly taking Chinese patent medicines now, if a new crown medicine can solve the problem, can we also consider it?
(data comes from Tonghuashun iFinD, Zhongkang Consulting)
. For Junshi Biologics, it is currently one of the fastest pipelines in China for the development of new crown drugs. If it is launched before June next year, it is expected to catch up with next year's medical insurance negotiations and achieve rapid increase in volume.
3. Summarize
Overall, through the understanding of Junshi Bio's new crown oral medicine and the two new crown oral medicines that have been launched in China, I think there is still room for imagination for the new crown oral medicine. Although it is difficult to predict and due to the influence of various factors, the current demand for new crown drugs in China is significantly lower than that of Chinese patent medicines. However, as these factors may weaken, as a "large flu", in the long run, new crown oral medicines may coexist with Chinese patent medicines, or be an important supplement to Chinese patent medicines.
Of course, if you want to invest in the COVID-19 drug track or Junshi Biosciences, you also need to pay attention to the sales of the COVID-19 drug that has been launched and the time of VV16 to be launched in 2023.
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