flew to Harvey Hunter on the 2018 A P-3 Hurricane Hunter nicknamed Kermit.
As Hurricane Ian intensified on his way to the Florida coast, hurricane hunters do something almost unthinkable in the sky: flying over the center of the storm. Each time the scientists on these planes took measurements that the satellite could not send it to the National Hurricane Center forecaster.
University meteorologist Jason Dunion leads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's 2022 Hurricane field program. He described the technology the team used to evaluate hurricane behavior in real time and his experience with P-3 Orion emanated through the eyes of the hurricane.
What happens to Hurricane Hunter when you fly to a storm?
Basically, we brought the flight lab into the heart of the hurricane, all the way to category 5. When we fly, we are processing the data and sending it to forecasters and climate modelers.
In P-3, we usually cut into the middle of the storm and go directly into the eyes. Imagine X Pattern - We constantly cut the storm several times during the mission. These may be developing storms, or they may be in categories 5.
in the eyes of Hurricane Teddy in 2020. The eyes are the calmest part of the storm, but it is surrounded by the most intense part: the eyes. (NOAA Photo by CMDR Lieutenant Robert Mitchell
We usually fly at about 10,000 feet, about a quarter between the sea and the top of the storm. We want to cut the roughest part of the storm because we are trying to measure the strongest winds in the center of the hurricane.
that has to be fierce. Can you describe what the scientists in these flights are going through?
My most intense flight was Dorian in 2019. This storm is close to Bahamas and has rapidly exacerbated the very powerful 5 storms with winds of about 185 mph. Feel like feathers in the wind.
When we walk through Dorian's eye wall, all are seat belts. If you have the draft down, you might lose hundreds of feet in seconds, or you can hit hundreds of feet in seconds. It's a lot like a roller coaster ride, only you don't know when the next up and down will come.
At some point, our G benefits are 3 to 4 g. That's what the astronauts have experienced during rocket launch. We can also put zero G for a few seconds, and anything without tying will float.
Even in the tough part of the storm, scientists like me are busy with computers to process data. The technician behind may have fired a drip from the abdomen of the plane, and we are checking the quality of the data and sending it to the Modeling Center and the National Hurricane Center.
NOAA's P-3 Orion is nicknamed "Kermit" ready to take off. (NOAA Photo by CMDR Rannenberg)
What do you learn from these flights?
One of our goals is to better understand why the storm is rapidly intensifying.
Quick reinforcement is a storm speed increase of 35 in a day. When mph. This is equivalent to a category 3 storm from category 1 to major in a short time. IDA (2021), Dorian (2019) and Michael (2018) are just hurricanes that have rapidly intensified recently. When this happens near the land, it catches people who are not prepared, which becomes dangerous.
Since rapid reinforcement can happen in a short time, we have to measure the hurricane hunter when the storm is blended into one .
So far, it's hard to predict rapid reinforcement. We might start to see the ingredients merge quickly: Is the ocean warm to depth? The atmosphere is good and juicy, is there a lot of moisture around the storm? Is the wind good? We also look at the inner core: What is the structure of the storm, and does it start to merge?
satellites can provide predictors with a basic view, but we need to bring the hurricane hunter itself into the storm itself to really separate the hurricane.
What will the storm look like when the storm is rapidly exacerbating?
Hurricanes like to stand straight - think of spinning tops. So one thing we are looking for is alignment.
A storm that is not yet fully together may have a low level cycle, a few kilometers above the ocean, where the layer cycle 6 or 7 kilometers does not line up. It wasn't a very healthy storm. But in a few hours we might fly back to the storm and noticed that both centers were more queued. This is a sign that it can exacerbate quickly.
We also look at the boundary layer, the area above the ocean. Hurricane Breathing: They suck air at low levels, which rushes over the eye wall, then drives out at the top of the storm and gets away from the center. That's why we get those huge uplifts in Eyewall.
So we might watch our Dropsonde or Tail Doppler radar data to see how wind flows at the boundary layer. Is this really the humid air rushing into the center of the storm? If deep in the boundary layer, the storm can also inhale a larger inhalation.
Let's also look at the structure. Many times, storms look healthy on satellites, but we will add radar , the structure is sloppy, or the eyes may be filled with clouds, which tells us that the storm is not ready to strengthen quickly. However, during that flight, we may start to see the structure change very quickly.
In breathing, upward and outward air is a great way to diagnose storms. If this breath looks healthy, it could be a good sign that aggravates the storm.
What tools do you use to measure and predict the behavior of hurricanes?
We need instruments that measure not only the atmosphere but also the ocean. Wind can dispel storms or tear, but sea heat and moisture are its fuel.
We use Dropsondes to measure temperature, humidity, pressure and wind speed and send data back to the sea every 15 feet or so. All of this data are given to the National Hurricane Center and Modeling Center so that they can better represent the atmosphere.
A P-3 has laser-CRL or compact rotating Raman LiDAR- can measure temperature, humidity and aerosol from the aircraft all the way to the sea. It can give us an idea of the juicy atmosphere, so how beneficial it is to feed the storm. The CRL runs continuously throughout the flight track, so you can get beautiful curtains under the plane to show temperature and humidity.
aircraft also has a tail dipler radar, which measures how droplets of moisture in the air blow to determine the behavior of wind. This gives us a 3D view of the wind farm, like the X-rays of a storm. You can't get it from the satellite.
We also released marine probes, please call AXBTS (aircraft consumption bathtub) before the storm. These probes measure water temperatures hundreds of feet. Typically, a surface temperature of 26.5 degrees Celsius (80 degrees Fahrenheit) is favorable for hurricanes, but the depth of that heat is also important.
If your seawater may be 85 F on the ground, but only 50 feet of water in the water is cold, the hurricane will quickly mix in cold water and weaken the storm. But, as we found in the eddy currents of Gulf of Mexico , deep water provides additional energy that can exacerbate the storm.
This year, we also tested a new technology - a small drone that we can launch from the abdomen of the P-3. They have about 7 to 9 feet of wingspan, which is basically a weather station with wings.
One of these drones dropped in the eyes can measure the pressure change, which indicates whether the storm is getting stronger or stronger. If we could put the drone in the eye wall and rotate there, it could measure the strongest wind - another important detail for the forecaster. We also don't have many measurements in the boundary layer, as it is not a safe place for aircraft to fly.
You also targeted Africa's Cabo Verde Islands for the first time this year. What are you looking for there?
Cabo Verde Islands are located in Atlantic Hurricane Nursery. Hurricane seedlings start from Africa and we are trying to determine the critical point where these riots form storms.
More than half of the storms we get in the Atlantic Ocean come from this nursery, which includes about 80% of the major hurricanes, so it's important even if harassment is more than 7 to 10 days longer than the hurricane.
In Africa, in summer, Sahara develops many thunderstorms on the southern border with the cool Moister Sahel region. Temperature differences can cause ripples in the atmosphere we call tropical waves. Some of these tropical waves are precursors of hurricanes. However, the Sahara air layer - a huge storm rolling down from Africa every three to five days or so - can suppress hurricanes. These storms peaked from June to mid-August. After that, tropical interference has a better chance to reach Caribbean .
At some point in the future, the National Hurricane Center will have to make a seven-day forecast, not just five days. We are figuring out how to improve early predictions.
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