It has been almost three years since 2019. We have been going through lockdowns, lifting lockdowns, and doing nucleic acid tests. Why are we suddenly letting go now? And during the winter flu outbreak? What's behind it? I briefly summarized a few points.
First, the virus is updated iteratively. It is highly contagious but has a low fatality rate. Most of them are asymptomatic or mild.
Any disease will cause death, and the fatality rate of the current virus is lower than that of ordinary diseases.
In the words of Zhong Nanshan these days: the fatality rate of mystery is similar to the 0.1% of influenza. This means that one thousand people infected may die.
Well, it is true, even if it is one in a thousand, it is still life. But when you think this way, have you ever considered that influenza also has a mortality rate of 0.1%? Have you taken precautions against influenza? Can you prevent the flu?
I have nothing to say about this. As of December 9, Guangzhou has confirmed 160,000 cases of this epidemic, with a total of 4 severe cases. There is no death data yet.
This is the first thing I want everyone to pay attention to: as long as there are medical resources , the mortality rate will be much smaller than what Zhong Nanshan said.
In addition to the low mortality rate of Omi, the economic cost is also an issue we need to consider.
Small shops that have closed down all over the street, and large shopping malls that are deserted can be seen everywhere. As for the more macro-level economy, I wrote the online data and no one is interested in understanding it. Let’s make a simple comparison: Vietnam was like us in the early days of “dynamically clearing to ”. After that, the national economy could not bear it, and Vietnam began to liberalize.
After liberalization in October last year, Vietnam experienced a brief panic, but GDP still surged by 5.22% in the fourth quarter of last year. At the beginning of this year, Vietnam's economy grew by 5.05% in the first quarter, 7.83% in the second quarter, and 13.67% in the third quarter.
Second, refer to the experience of some open countries abroad.
From the perspective of liberalized countries, the peak period will begin in about the third week after the liberalization, and the epidemic will explode like a blowout. As we are about to usher in important festivals such as New Year's Day and Spring Festival, people will experience greater mobility. If we continue to impose restrictions as before, a little negligence will lead to large-scale infections, and everyone will not be able to have a good holiday. With the current openness, more and more infected people are coming forward to tell everyone that it is not so scary, and people are becoming more and more accepting of the openness of pornography.
After the first wave of the epidemic, society operated normally, express delivery could be received, New Year's goods could be bought, factories were operating normally, and supplies were abundant.
Third, opening up now is to have a better start next year.
The peak period of the second wave of love affairs must be one month after the Spring Festival. Everyone has a detailed understanding of the first wave of love affairs, so at home you should take medicine and drink water. There is no fear in your heart. After a few days of recovery, the company can open again, the workers go to work, and the children are full of energy and ready to go to school.
Fourth, why won’t it be opened after the year?
In my humble opinion, it will be opened after the new year. It will take two or three months to go back and forth. The first half of the year is almost wasted. It is also extremely unfriendly to students in the third year of junior high school and senior high school. Without the atmosphere of school, learning is really much worse. Moreover, some places are closed and some are not, which is a bit unfair in these most important moments of life. There is an old saying that a year's plan starts with spring. The country also hopes that next year will be a new beginning and new hope.
Fifth, the voice of the people is getting louder and louder.
The interests of the people are above all else. After three years of love affair, the lives of ordinary people have become increasingly difficult. Companies can't open, classes can't go, students can't go to school, and people's wallets are also depleted.
Sixth, the country’s human and financial resources, as well as local governments, are under increasing pressure.
box of acid, shelter, medical staff are spending more and more money, and they can hardly digest it. There is also the slow rise in GDP across the country, which also needs to be considered.
So, to sum up, I think it is most appropriate to open up now. The time is right, the place is right, and the country is definitely more thoughtful than we think. This is just what I, a common man, think of. The country has such a powerful think tank, and I believe they will be able to lead us out of the predicament of the epidemic.
