A population expert secretly told me: the country's policy of opening up the second and third-child policy is helpless, because the population situation in our country is much more severe than everyone imagined.
"The annual birth population is 10.62 million, and the birth rate of is 7.52‰; the death toll is 10.14 million, and the death rate is 7.18‰; the natural population growth rate is 0.34‰."
At the end of 2021, the national population (including the population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities and active-duty soldiers, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan residents and foreigners living in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the central government) was 1412.6 million, and increased by 480,000 compared with the end of last year. shrinks to double-digit population growth, hitting a new low since 1962.
According to this trend, our country is likely to usher in a negative population growth trend in the next 3-5 years, and it is a reversible situation, which is the old path for developed countries such as Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea.
But our country's economy is far from the situation in this country. Once we face the dual pressure of negative population growth and aging, the future will be really difficult.
How many people die normally in my country every day?
In the seventh national census in 2021, the total population of the country was 1.412 billion, and the annual birth and death population was as follows:
2011, 16.04 million, and 9.57 million died;
2012, 16.35 million, and 9.63 million died;
2013, 16.4 million, and 9.69 million died;
2014, 16.87 million, and 9.74 million died;
2015, 16.55 million were born and 9.75 million died;
2016, 17.86 million was born and 9.77 million died;
2017, 17.23 million was born and 9.86 million died;
2018 square meters, 15.23 million was born and 9.93 million died;
2019, 14.65 million was born and 9.98 million died;
2020, 12 million was born and 10 million died.
We can see that the annual death toll is approximately stable at around 10 million. So what are the causes of these deaths?
Let’s take 2019 as an example, the death toll was 9.98 million, of which died normally (lifetime) 7.68 million . It is converted to 21,000 people/day every day, and about 2.3 million abnormal deaths, and 6,300 people/day every day. This data is indeed shocking. Its distribution is roughly as follows:
1, suicide, 287,000;
2, about 200,000 deaths caused by adverse drug reactions;
3, about 200,000 deaths caused by medical accidents;
4, , 13,000 deaths caused by tuberculosis ;
5, 3.5 million infections for Class A and B infectious diseases, 13,000 deaths for 100,000 deaths for pneumoconiosis;
6, 5,000 deaths for pneumoconiosis;
7, 100,000 deaths for traffic accidents;
8, 13,000 deaths for work-related injuries;
9, 31,000 deaths for electric shock and fires;
10, about 16,000 primary and secondary school students and 3,000 college students die abnormally every year; (The reasons may be scattered into various lethal factors, such as suicide, electric shock, drowning, fire, drugs, etc.)
11, 10,000 deaths in deaths;
12, 70,000 deaths in criminal cases;
13, 111,000 deaths in decoration pollution;
14, 10,000 deaths in improper use of pesticides;
15, 10,000 deaths in food poisoning;
16, 10,000 deaths in alcohol poisoning;
17, 600,000 deaths in overwork;
18, 385,000 deaths in air pollution.
Of course, in addition to the above mainstream causes of death, there are many other causes of death, such as accidentally falling off a cliff, being hit by a flowerpot falling from a tall building, and choking to death after eating, etc.
Why should my country liberalize the second-child policy?
From the above, we actually know clearly why the country has to relax the second or even third child policies. In fact, this is a helpless choice. After all, the net population growth of my country in 2021 was only 480,000.
This is still under the premise of liberalizing the two-child policy. If the two-child policy was not liberalized at the beginning, then my country may have ushered in a negative population growth situation, which is unacceptable to the current national situation.
In addition to this, the following considerations are given to the liberalization of the second child policy:
. Coping with the crisis of aging
Although my country has a large population, the number of elderly people is actually large, and the proportion is not small. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics: In 2018, there were 249 million elderly people over 60 years old in China, while there were 248 million children under 15 years old. This is also the first time that the population of elderly people over 60 years old in China has exceeded 15 years old.
The aging of the population is very serious, such as the small amount of labor force at the age of time, the burden of pension is increased, etc. Today, most of the post-90s and even 00s are only children, which means that a young couple will need to support four elderly people on both sides in the future, which is too great.
. Alleviate labor shortage
The population growth rate is inversely related to the country's economic development level. The higher the country's economic level, the lower the population growth rate. For example, in developed countries such as Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea, the population even has negative growth, while in regions such as economically backward Africa, the population growth rate is very rapid.
Our country is in the same situation. The developed areas along the eastern coast are highly economically, but they face much greater living standards. Therefore, many young people do not want to have children. In addition, the population aging is severe, which will inevitably further slow down the population growth.
One of the reasons why our country's economic situation over the years has been so good is that it has a huge working population and has released a large number of demographic dividends . Once this advantage is lost, our country's industrial transformation has not been completed, and the consequences are unpredictable.
In short, liberalizing the two-child policy is a helpless move in our country to deal with the aging crisis and labor shortage, because the population situation in our country is too severe now.
What problems will aging bring?
There is no doubt that the crisis of aging is definitely not empty talk. Let’s look at Korea and Japan today and understand how harmful the aging is. Specifically for our country, once it enters deep aging, it will at least bring these problems.
. The pension gap has widened
According to experts' estimates, by 2050, the number of elderly people over 60 in my country will reach 550 million, and the number of young and middle-aged people has dropped sharply to less than 100 million.
In other words, by that time it would be equivalent to a young man raising 5.5 elderly people, and our current pension is a "pay-as-you-go system". Simply put, it is to use the pension paid by office workers now to give it to the elderly.
This means that when our post-90s retire, the pension will not be enough to spend, because the social security paid by young people is not enough to pay for the elderly.
Even if there is a certain gap in pensions every year, the state uses financial subsidies. I can't imagine how deficit the pensions will be in 20 years?
. Labor costs soared
Why takeaway and express delivery are so smooth in our country but difficult to carry out abroad is not because there is no habit of electronic payment and online shopping abroad, but because the high labor costs abroad cannot offset the cost of the product itself.
After all, in our country, millions of deliverymen and couriers provide high-quality services to others with low income. Once aging comes, young and middle-aged people will decrease, labor costs will definitely skyrocket.
For example, if you give a takeaway, a order may be 3-5 yuan now, and by 2050, it may be 30-50 yuan. What you are seeing now is a young delivery guy. By 2050, I'm afraid you can only see the old man delivering food. Because young people were scarce at that time, they were probably poached by large companies with high salaries.
, Delayed Retirement
This year's 14th Five-Year Plan clearly mentioned that we should slowly implement the strategy of delaying retirement. There is no doubt that delaying retirement is the direction of the future.
For example, this year, Jiangsu and Shandong have successively released delayed retirement plans, , which Shandong Province clearly stipulates that senior experts with deputy senior or above enterprises are the first batch of those who can voluntarily apply for delayed retirement.
Jiangsu Province has a wider scope. As long as it is an enterprise employee, he can voluntarily apply for delayed retirement when some conditions are met.
According to industry insiders, delaying retirement should be delayed by several months every year or six months. From this point of view, those who retire before 2025 will be extended by up to four or five months, and by 2030, it will be delayed by about one to two years.
Delayed retirement is to deal with the aging crisis and pension deficit. Once aging accelerates in the future, it is likely that delaying retirement will be proposed again in order to cope with the skeleton. After all, with the improvement of medical standards, the average life expectancy of the people is increasing year by year, and pension deficits are naturally even worse.
. Economic growth rate declines
The elderly can only live on pensions, while most people don’t have much pensions, and they can’t even barely maintain their lives. In this case, they naturally dare not spend too much.
Consumption is a powerful way to promote market prosperity. Once consumption sluggish, the economic vitality will naturally decline significantly, which will cause the country's economic growth rate to gradually decrease.
In short, the crisis of aging is much greater than everyone imagined. Although our country now has a population of 1.4 billion, and many people think that the population is too large, if our country's population is really reduced by half, then young and middle-aged people will only reduce more, and the lack of labor will harm the country more.
written in the end
md in my country's 1.4 billion people die every year, and the normal death toll is about 7.5 million, which means that the normal death toll is about 21,000 per day. This data is quite amazing. However, the negative growth in 2021, which is more serious than this, is only 480,000. This is why the country's liberalization of the second-child policy.
So, if you have two or more children in your family, you are actually supporting the country's policies in disguise and making your own contribution to the country's aging strategy. I like you!
